EXIT POLLS: Storm of Voter Dissatisfaction Lifts Obama to an Historic Win

Nov. 5, 2008— -- Analysis by Gary Langer, Rich Morin, Brian Hartman, Peyton Craighill, Claudia Deane, Mollyann Brodie, Patrick Moynihan, Bob Shapiro and Scott Clement.

Barack Obama rode a storm of voter dissatisfaction to his history-making victory, lifted to office as the first African-American president by the battered economy, a generational and partisan shift in political power and the resonance of his promise of change.

The coalition of voters that supported Obama reflected the diversity of America. Sixty-one percent of his supporters were white, 23 percent black and 11 percent Hispanic. In contrast, 90 percent of John McCain's supporters were white.

Young voters, while not turning out in disproportionate numbers, overwhelmingly supported Obama, 66-32 percent, smashing the previous records for this group – a 19-point margin for Bill Clinton in 1991 and a 19-point margin for Ronald Reagan in 1984.

The election marked a reversal of the Reagan revolution. His presidency heralded a generation of close division in political partisanship, shrinking a 15-point advantage in Democratic turnout in 1980 to 2 points in 1984 and, for the first time, parity in 2004. This year, in a dramatic turnaround, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 7 points, 39 percent to 32 percent – the fewest Republicans in 28 years.

The shift in individual states was equally remarkable – in Ohio a 15-point swing toward the Democrats in turnout, in North Carolina 12 points, in Virginia 11, in Nevada 10, in Indiana and New Mexico 9.

Part of that shift stemmed from the deeply unpopular president (71 percent disapproved of George W. Bush's job performance; even in Utah, the nation's most Republican state, 51 percent disapproved) and the broadly unpopular Iraq war (63 percent disapproved). But almost exclusively this election was about the economy and the angst of recession.

Consider:

-Sixty-three percent said the economy was the biggest problem facing the county; the next no closest was Iraq at 10 percent.

-Eighty-one percent were worried about their family's finances – 48 percent, "very" worried. Two-thirds said they were worried about being able to afford health care.

-Three-quarters of voters said the country was seriously off on the wrong track – vastly up from 46 percent in 2004 and 31 percent in 2000.

-Forty-two percent of voters said their family's financial situation is worse than it was four years ago – the most since it first was asked in exit polls in 1992.

Obama capitalized on these anxieties, taking advantage of the theme of "change" he first wielded against Hillary Clinton in the primaries, then turned against Bush, McCain, and ultimately the economic crisis in the general election.

Obama won 62 percent of voters who said the country's off on the wrong track. He won by 53-44 percent among voters who said the economy was their top concern. And he won "worse off" voters by 70-28 percent.

McCain won voters who were "better off" and those who were in the same shape financially now as four years ago; it was financially hurting voters who made Obama president.

Despite portraying himself as a "maverick," McCain never could separate himself from Bush: Voters were evenly divided (48-48 percent) when asked if they thought McCain would continue Bush's policies or move the country in a different direction. Nor was McCain helped by Sarah Palin: Sixty percent saw her as unqualified to be president.

Even among his supporters, enthusiasm for McCain was tepid, as it had been all through the campaign. Just 28 percent of McCain voters were "excited" about the prospect of his becoming president. By contrast, twice as many Obama supporters, 56 percent, were excited about the prospect of an Obama presidency.

First-time voters – disproportionately under 30 – accounted for 11 percent of the turnout, no more than in 2004, but different in their vote preference: Four years ago first-timers backed John Kerry by 7 points; Tuesday, Obama by 39.

There was a broad gender gap, with men dividing 49-48 percent between the candidates, while women favored Obama by 13 points, 56-43 percent. At the same time it was men and women alike – indeed slightly more men – who were responsible for the sharp shift in partisanship.

Young voters, minority voters and women were central to Obama's win. He won 95 percent of blacks and 67 percent of Hispanics, 14 points more than John Kerry won in 2004. He lost whites by 12 points; Kerry lost them by 17, Al Gore by 12 as well.

A difference this time: There were fewer whites to win or lose. For the first time whites accounted for fewer than three-quarters of voters, 74 percent – down steadily from 90 percent in 1976. Blacks accounted for 13 percent, up slightly from 11 percent in 2004 to a new high. Hispanics were 9 percent of voters, up a point from '04.

Obama won independents by 52-44 percent, maintaining their swing-voter staus; he also won 83 percent of Clinton Democrats – and 17 percent of Bush voters from 2004.

At the state level, Obama became the first Democrat to win a majority of Hispanics in Florida since exit polls began tracking voter demographics. He became the first Democrat to win Virginia in 44 years; by coincidence it was another Arizona Senator, Barry Goldwater, who fell in 1964 to Democrat Lyndon Johnson.

Race was perhaps a surprisingly minor factor. Nineteen percent of all voters called it at least somewhat of a factor in their vote; 80 percent said it was not a factor at all. But Obama's margin was essentially the same among those who called race a factor – 53-45 percent – and those who said it was not, 51-46 percent.

There were, however, differences by race. Seventeen percent of whites called race a factor, and favored McCain by 61-37 percent. Whites for whom race was not a factor voted for McCain by a narrower 53-44 percent. Meanwhile one in three blacks called race a factor in their vote, and, like all blacks, favored Obama almost unanimously.

Age by contrast, was a bigger issue: Twice as many overall, 39 percent, called the age of the candidates a factor in their vote. And they favored Obama by 2-1, 66-32 percent.

A final result makes the election look, if not pre-ordained, at least long locked in. Sixty percent of voters said they'd made up their minds before last September; 74 percent, in September or earlier. They voted for Obama over McCain, 53-46 percent.

A state-by-state analysis of results in some key states follows.

VIRGINIA

Bush: Seventy-two percent disapproved of Bush's performance as president and 68 percent of these voters supported Obama. Among the 27 percent who approved of Bush, 90 percent voted for McCain.

Race: Twenty-seven percent of voters in Virginia said the race was at least a minor factor in determining their vote. Among those who said race was a factor, 95 percent of blacks voted for Obama while whites supported McCain 61-38 percent.

Working Class: Working class voters--those with annual family incomes under $50,000--voted 62 percent to 37 percent for Obama. But white working class voters voted 57 percent to 42 percent for McCain, little different from whites overall. Working class voters comprised about 30 of all voters in Virginia.

Change: About a third of voters said they most wanted a candidate who could bring about needed change (35 percent) or shared their values (32 percent). Obama won 92 percent of the vote of those who wanted change, while 65 percent of those who wanted a candidate who shared their values voted for McCain.