CCI: Back in the Dead Zone

Oct. 20, 2009 — -- The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index crossed a dubious barrier this week, returning to -50 after a three-month stretch above it.

That level, on the CCI's scale of +100 to -100, is about as bad as it gets. The index's been this low or lower just 23 times in 23 years of weekly polls – 22 of them in 2008 or 2009. The index, down 5 points in two weeks, is now its worst since mid-July, and just 4 points above its worst-ever rating, -54 last in January.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

The recent slide reflects sagging ratings of the buying climate and personal finances alike. Just 23 percent of Americans now rate buying climate positively, the fewest since July 19, when the CCI last hit -50. Forty-one percent rate their personal finances positively, the fewest since this measure hit its record low in June.

The third component of the CCI, rating the national economy, has been more stable recently, but miserable – only 11 percent positive.

There's no mystery why confidence continues to struggle. On top of unemployment, home foreclosures reportedly increased by 5 percent from July to September, affecting nearly one million homes, a record; retail sales in September dropped 1.5 percent from August; and there's rough news for parents of college-bound kids, with tuitions reportedly up 6.5 percent for public in-state tuition over last year.

INDEX – As noted, ratings of personal finances, typically the best of the CCI's three measures, have slipped to 41 percent positive, down 8 points from their recent high, 49 percent Aug. 23. That's the steepest such decline since the summer, when this measure hit its record low, 39 percent positive. Now 16 points below the long-term average, it's has been below a majority for 23 weeks straight and all but two weeks this year.

Ratings of the buying climate, at 23 percent positive, are just 5 points from the record low and 14 points below the long-term average. They've been below 30 percent for a record 84 weeks.