Consumer Confidence in Retreat, With Worsened Expectations as Well

Jan. 19, 2010 — -- Current ratings of consumer confidence are in full retreat this month after moving ahead in December – and a separate measure finds expectations for the future worsening.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, measuring current economic sentiment, stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, 8 points lower than the start of the month and its lowest since Nov. 1. With its 6-point tumble last week, one of the sharpest one-week drops in 24 years of weekly polls, it's within striking distance of its worst on record, -54 a year ago.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

Expectations for the economy's future, measured separately, are waning as well. This month significantly more say the economy is getting worse, 36 percent, than say it's getting better, 24 percent. Last month, by contrast, economic optimists equaled pessimists at 30 percent each.

Blame, above all, the persistently negative employment situation. Unemployment remains at 10 percent; include discouraged workers – those no longer looking for a job – and it's 17.3 percent, near its worst level in 16 years of data. The fallout from one in six Americans being out of work has ripple effects across families and the economy.

There are strong political impacts. A separate ABC News/Washington Post poll this week found Barack Obama down 15 points since he took office a year ago to 53 percent approval – almost exactly matching the first-year path of Ronald Reagan, the last president to take office in a recession. Fifty-two percent disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, although more blame its condition on the Bush administration than on Obama's.

BETTER/WORSE – With its 6-point one-month gain, the number of Americans saying the economy is getting worse is its highest since September. The number who say things are getting better is down a corresponding 6 points. And an additional 39 percent say the economy is staying the same – a broader sign of malaise, given how negatively it's rated.

CURRENT INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. Forty-five percent of Americans rate their personal finances positively, down 6 points in two weeks. Positive ratings have been below a majority for 75 of the last 78 weeks, a record by far, and are 12 points below than their long-term average.