Half See Glimmers of Recovery, Yet Economic Gloom Stays Deep

Dec. 17, 2009— -- There's a slight glimmer of light in public views of the economy: Half of Americans say it's begun to recover. But negatives aplenty threaten to douse that candle.

Among people who see a recovery beginning, nearly three-quarters say it's a weak one. Among those unconvinced it's begun, most don't expect it anytime soon. Ratings of the job market, 84 percent negative, are at their lowest in polls since 1992. And six in 10 Americans say the U.S. economy is in "long-term decline," essentially unchanged from the height of despair a year ago.

Click here for PDF with charts and questionnaire.

On a more personal level, 64 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are worried about maintaining their standard of living, also no better than a year ago and much lower than pre-crisis. Fifty-seven percent report personal stress as a result of the economic situation, again, where it's been all year. For more than one in four – 28 percent – it's "serious" stress.

The number who say a recovery's begun, 50 percent, is up from 44 percent a month ago – the most hopeful sign in otherwise bleak views. In another bottom-line question, by contrast, 13 percent say that from their perspective, the recession is over, while 86 percent think not. That's slightly gloomier than last month's 82 percent.

Separately, the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index is wrapping up what will be its worst year in 24 years of weekly polls. This week 93 percent of Americans say the national economy is in bad shape, 71 percent call it a bad time to spend money and 53 percent say their own finances are hurting. The index, figured on a scale of +100 to -100, is -45 now and has averaged -48 this year, compared to a long-term average of -12. It started the '00s at a record high +38.

POLITICAL PAIN – There are political repercussions: As noted in yesterday's analysis, Barack Obama's job approval rating has fallen to 50 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. On the economy, 52 percent disapprove, a new high; on the deficit, 56 percent, likewise a high.

We've been here before. Ronald Reagan, the last president to take office in the teeth of a recession, fell from a high of 73 percent approval near the start of his first term to 52 percent the following December, then stayed there for most of his second year in office – bottoming out at 42 percent – until the economy turned around. Obama, so far, has followed a similar path.