POLL: Confidence’s Negative Stretch Extends Into New Year

Jan. 8, 2008— -- Consumer confidence kicks off 2008 exactly where it ended last year, continuing its 22-week slump in negative double digits.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -20 on its scale of +100 to -100, pausing just 4 points off its low for 2007. The CCI spent last year on a rocky downward path, ultimately finishing off with a fourth-quarter average of -18.

Economic news remains unsettling: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a four-year slowdown in new jobs for December, unemployment is its highest since November 2005, the stock market's been volatile, trouble continues in the housing and credit markets, and gasoline was up 6 cents this week to $3.11 a gallon. None of that helps.

INDEX – The ABC News index (formerly the ABC News/Washington Post CCI) is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. All three remained steady this week, with two still in low territory: Thirty-one percent rate the economy positively, 9 points below its long-term average in weekly polls since December 1985. The same number rate the buying climate positively, just 1 point from its 2007 low and 7 points below its long-term average.

Ratings of personal finances, usually the strongest of the three components, remain steady at 58 percent, roughly matching the long-term average.

TREND – The CCI sits at -20, matching where it was last week but still just 4 points shy of its 2007 low in early December. It ultimately finished 2007 averaging -11, 2 points below its long-term average.

The index faced a rough ride last year, heading south each quarter. It also was volatile, with the largest- and second-largest one-week drops, and two of the second-biggest one-week gains, since this survey began.

The CCI is far below its record high, +38 in January 2000 but also much better than its record low, -50 in February 1992.

GROUPS – As usual the CCI is higher in better-off groups. It's +7 among higher-income people while -59 among those with the lowest incomes, -13 among those who've been to college while -47 among high-school dropouts, -18 among whites but -43 among blacks and -10 among men while -29 among women.