Two Points from its Low, Confidence Looks Like '92

Oct. 28, 2008— -- Two points from its low in 22 years of weekly polls, consumer confidence has been here before – just in advance of the economy-driven election of 1992.

Uninspired by a six-week drop in gasoline prices, the ABC News Consumer Confidence Index stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100. Its worst on record was -51 in late May, and it last saw these levels in the hangover from the 1990-91 recession. A week before the 1992 election, when economic discontent cost George H.W. Bush his job, it was -48.

Just 19 percent of Americans rate the buying climate positively, a point from the lowest on record, also matched last week. Eight percent rate the national economy positively, also a point from the low, and fewer than half say their own finances are good.

In a separate ABC News/Washington Post election tracking poll 54 percent of likely voters say their top issue is the economy, far and away No. 1, and they favor Barack Obama by a 19-point margin. Obama also leads John McCain by 9 points in trust to handle the economy, down from an 18-point Obama advantage last week.

Gas prices have fallen $1.18 a gallon over the past six weeks to $2.66, their lowest since March 25, 2007. But gasoline's been overshadowed by the global economic crisis, with recession looming, home prices diving, banks failing and the stock market down 473 points last week.

INDEX – As noted, positive ratings of the buying climate are 19 percent, a point off the lowest since 1985, hit just last week. Even fewer, 8 percent, rate the economy positively, down 23 points this year and 31 points off the long-term average.

The usual stronghold of the index, ratings of personal finances, are 49 percent positive, only a little better than the 45 percent it hit in early September, but still down 9 points for the year and 8 points from the long-term average.

TREND – The CCI is a long way from where it was a year ago, -15, and its path since then has been tumultuous. It sustained eight significant week-to-week drops in the past year – more than twice the yearly average for such drops.