Confidence at Historic Low As Holidays Approach
Just eight percent of Americans rate the economy positively.
Nov. 25, 2008— -- Consumer confidence is stuck this week at its lowest in 22 years of weekly polls, a dark sign for so-called Black Friday, the traditional Christmas shopping kickoff.
The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index is unchanged at -52 on its +100 to -100 scale, its third week at or below -50. Just 8 percent of Americans rate the economy positively, 21 percent call it a good time to buy things and 43 percent say their personal finances are good – each near its record low individually, and matching last week's low in aggregate.
Sagging confidence accompanies a range of grim indicators – a record drop in home prices, shrinking third-quarter GDP, rising unemployment, retail troubles and continued upheaval in the financial world. While gas prices have eased – at $1.89 it's their first week since early 2005 below $2 a gallon – other concerns have swamped consumers.
There are other indications of the tough road ahead for retailers in their critical holiday season. In a separate ABC News poll last week, 68 percent said they planned to wait for holiday sales, 51 percent planned to spend less this year than last – the most by far since 1991 – and average intended spending was down sharply.
INDEX – The CCI, as noted, is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. Positive ratings of personal finances are down 15 points on the year to a point from their record low in March 1993. Fewer than a majority have rated their finances positively for 18 weeks straight, the longest since a 40-week stretch from 1992-93.
Ratings of the buying climate have been steady the past month but are just 3 points from their all-time low and 17 points below their 22-year average. And ratings of the national economy are a point from their low, down 23 points this year and 31 points off their average.
TREND – At -52, the CCI matches its record low and continues in deep negative territory. After starting the year at -20, it's been at or below -50 seven times in 2008, a record. And it's been at or below -40 for 32 weeks straight, the second longest streak on record, beaten only in late 1991 to mid-1992.
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