Sagging Personal Finances Halt a Gain in Confidence

May 26, 2009 — -- Sagging ratings of personal finances have halted a mild positive move for consumer confidence, pushing ratings of current economic conditions back to their mid-April level – and not far from their all-time low in 23 years of weekly polling.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -47 on its scale of +100 to -100, down 5 points in two weeks after reaching its 2009 high, -42 on May 10. Current ratings are near their 2009 average, -49, and close to their lowest, -54 on Jan. 25.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

Negative views of current economic conditions stand in contrast to expectations for the future, which have improved sharply in this and other surveys of consumer sentiment. In our report last week, as many Americans said the economy's improving as said it's worsening (a third apiece), the first time in five years economic optimists have equaled pessimists. Pessimism is down 49 points from its record high last October.

ABC keeps separate its measures of views of current conditions (weekly) and expectations for the future (monthly), since they sometimes, as now, diverge.

The slide in current sentiment stems chiefly from softer ratings of personal finances, which gained 7 points from April through mid-May to the year's best, but have fallen back by nearly as much in the last two weeks. The two other elements of the CCI – rating the national economy and the buying climate – have held steadier.

Other economic measures inform these views. The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index finds a record 19-percent decline the past year. Gasoline prices - which tend to correlate inversely with consumer confidence when they rise - are their highest since October. And unemployment's at a 25-year high.

INDEX – Positive ratings of personal finances, usually the strongest of the CCI's three measures, have slipped to 46 percent, down 6 points from their 2009 high of 52 percent two weeks ago. The current measure is 11 points below the long-term average.

Twenty-five percent say it's a good time to buy things, essentially unchanged the last six weeks, 12 points below the long-term average and just 7 points above the record low in October and August. And only 8 percent rate the economy positively, in single digits for 31 of the last 33 weeks and 30 points below the long-term average.