How to bet Weidman vs. Silva II


Ronda Rousey (minus-800) versus Miesha Tate (plus-550)


If the first fight was any indication, Rousey should have no problem finishing Tate again in this second meeting. However, this time the fighters find themselves on a much bigger stage as the co-main event of UFC 168. And while the very high money line of minus-800 for Rousey indicates most bettors believe she will repeat the victory, a deeper look into the fight statistics substantiate this. If there is a set of statistics that best illustrate Rousey's dominant run, consider that her current gigantic 8.01 takedowns per 15 minutes rate matches her submissions per 15 minutes rate of 8.01. Plus, she has gone 7-for-7 in first-round submission victories, winning every single one of her MMA fights by armbar.

With Tate possessing a very subpar 20 percent takedown defense (a surprising stat considering "Takedown" Tate is known for her wrestling background), the probability of her being able to stay on her feet against Rousey given the aforementioned monstrous numbers is highly unlikely. In their first fight, Rousey was 3-for-3 in takedown attempts.

The only real chance Tate has to defeat Rousey is by successfully landing a submission, given that she'll likely find herself on the ground. And it isn't completely out of the question, as Tate averages 2.31 submissions per 15 minutes and has gained nearly half of her victories (six of 13) by submission. However, this would be quite a feat, as only one of Rousey's opponents, Liz Carmouche, has even attempted a submission on Rousey, and even that was a very rare move -- a standing rear naked choke attempt. With the chance of Tate attempting a submission on the ground against Rousey very low, and with Tate likely finding herself on her back very quickly as she did in the first fight, it seems the gigantic money line is warranted. With value on neither side of the fight, consider this one a stay away at minus-800.

Insider value pick: Stay away


Josh Barnett (minus-190) versusĀ  Travis Browne (plus-165)


Barnett, who briefly held the UFC heavyweight title in 2002 before being stripped of the belt after a positive test for banned substances, might be in the middle of one of the most amazing comebacks in MMA history. Barnett has won four out of his last five fights, having lost only to Daniel Cormier in the final round of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix final. And in his return to the UFC, he TKO'd former interim UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir in less than two minutes. Now the 36-year-old Barnett will attempt to continue his dominant run against a younger, rising opponent in 31-year-old Travis Browne.

Barnett will face a much more difficult challenge than he has in the recent past. Barnett's resurgence has been the driving force behind his considerable minus-190 favorite status in this fight, but there are many reasons to believe the outcome will be much closer than the line would indicate.

Page
  • 1
  • |
  • 2
  • |
  • 3
  • |
  • 4
Join the Discussion
You are using an outdated version of Internet Explorer. Please click here to upgrade your browser in order to comment.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
You Might Also Like...