College Football Playoff predictions: Clemson-Notre Dame, Alabama-Ohio State in semis
— -- Welcome to the one-loss party, No. 4 Notre Dame.
The College Football Playoff selection committee's second top four is now No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Ohio State, and No. 4 Notre Dame -- a list that includes two teams that have lost already in Alabama (Ole Miss) and Notre Dame (Clemson). LSU, which was No. 2 last week, dropped to No. 9 after its loss to Alabama.
There are still six undefeated teams remaining, but for the second straight week, the CFP selection committee showed their evaluations go deeper than the win-loss column.
The biggest surprise, though, was No. 5 Iowa, which is right on the bubble after a win over Indiana this past weekend. The undefeated Hawkeyes were No. 9 last week. At No. 6, Baylor was the highest-ranked Big 12 team, followed by No. 7 Stanford, and No. 8 Oklahoma State, which just beat former No. 8 TCU.
Here's what the bracket would look like today:
As for the other major bowls, here's a projection based on the current rankings:
The Rose Bowl still gets the Pac-12 champ, which would be No. 7 Stanford, and since Ohio State is in the top four, it would choose the next-best Big Ten team, which would be No. 5 Iowa. The Sugar Bowl is guaranteed the Big 12 champ, which would be No. 6 Baylor, but since the SEC champ is in the top four, it would get the next highest-ranked team, No. 9 LSU.
Because of geography, proximity and fan interest, No. 11 Florida probably would go to the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The highest-ranked conference champion from a Group of 5 conference is guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six bowl, so it probably would face Navy in Atlanta for the same reasons. The highest-ranked available teams remaining would be No. 8 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Utah in the Fiesta Bowl.
Here's what New Year's Eve and New Year's Day could look like, based on today's rankings:
Dec. 31
12 p.m. ET -- Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 11 Florida vs. No. 20 Navy
4 p.m. ET or 8 p.m. ET -- Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (semifinal No. 1)
4 p.m. ET or 8 p.m. ET -- Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Ohio State (semifinal No. 2)
Jan. 1
1 p.m. ET -- Fiesta Bowl: No. 8 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Utah
5 p.m. ET -- Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 7 Stanford
8:30 p.m. ET -- Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 9 LSU
