New college rankings & AFC preview

— -- The NCAA and the football-factory conferences endlessly say their players are not unpaid semipros; rather, they're true student-athletes.

So let's take them at their word and rank the country's top college football programs with education as important as victory.

Introducing ESPN Grade, a whole new way to think about college sports rankings. ESPN Grade combines on-field performance with commencement-day performance.

Here's how it works: ESPN Grade adds each Top 25 college program's position in the Associated Press (media) and USA Today (coaches) polls with the program's position in ranking of graduation rates. The numbers are combined to produce a blended victory-education ranking.

ESPN Grade debuts today with its preseason ranking. In both the media and coaches preseason polls, the top three are Florida State, Alabama and Oklahoma. In ESPN Grade, the top three are Alabama, UCLA and Ohio State.

Florida State drops from first to sixth based on a low football graduation rate of 58 percent; Oklahoma drops from third to 10th based on an even worse football graduation rate of 51 percent, lowest of any ranked team. Florida State and Oklahoma offer first-rate football on the field, but second-rate football academics.

Alabama rises to No. 1 in ESPN Grade based on a football graduation rate of 70 percent. UCLA vaults to No. 2 on a rate of 82 percent, while Ohio State reaches No. 3 on a football graduation rate of 75 percent. These programs achieve the student-athlete ideal -- great sports followed by diplomas on commencement day.

Elsewhere in ESPN Grade, South Carolina and USC are among programs that drop downward, owing to low football graduation rates. Clemson, Georgia and Stanford are among those whose strong commencement-day numbers cause them to rise.

The first step in compiling ESPN Grade is making a ranking of teams based solely on their most recent football graduation rates, ranking every school that makes either the coaches or AP Top 25. Only the ranked power teams are sorted by graduation rate. (Sorry, Williams.) Then the graduation standing is combined with the media and coaches' rankings to produce ESPN Grade.

Graduation numbers employed are the most recent available: Right now, from the end of the 2013 academic year. Numbers from the end of the 2014 academic year are expected in October, and then ESPN Grade will refresh -- there will also be a final ESPN Grade at season's end.

To have a uniform standard, ESPN Grade uses graduation data as released by the NCAA. Some colleges also announce additional graduation information. Because there are several ways of calculating the numbers, ESPN Grade takes all data from the central NCAA source. Employed is the Graduation Success Rate as computed by the NCAA, which gives credit for players who transfer in or out, and is generous in other statistical respects. Another metric called the Federal Graduation Rate is lower than the numbers you'll see used in ESPN Grade. More details on the methodology are on the ESPN Grade page.

What about early departures for the NFL? They reduce graduation rates a little, but the effect is small: employing the Graduation Success Rate rather than the Federal Graduation Rate more than compensates for early departures. The most recent year for which graduation statistics have been released had 53 early entrants, about half of 1 percent of upperclassman scholarship players. As ESPN Grade shows, some football-factory programs maintain high graduation standards in spite of early departures, while others have low standards in spite of no early departures.

What about the Academic Progress Rate the NCAA also computes? This metric only matters to a college's institutional compliance with NCAA rules; the APR has no bearing on the real world and tells next to nothing about education. Nobody receives an APR compliance certification on commencement day. At job interviews, no employers ask whether you attended an APR-compliant institution. Employers ask: Did you graduate from college?

What about allegations of "academic misconduct" at Notre Dame, the football factory at the top for graduation rate? This may be a serious matter, and if so, the important thing is the players involved were caught. Unless they answer the accusations and fix their transcripts, they won't graduate. Many college students who are not athletes try various forms of cheating, and if caught do not receive degrees. No system is perfect, but generally, college students who don't attend class or who hand in work copied from the Internet don't get diplomas and do not show up in graduation statistics.

Isn't it possible that someone can graduate from college without really getting an education, after taking easy courses? Yes, and this is a problem in collegiate athletics. But it's a problem in all of higher education; many non-athletes take easy courses, skip class and graduate without meaningful education, too. All that anyone can be sure of about a college student is whether that person walked to "Pomp and Circumstance" holding a diploma, and that's what ESPN Grade either rewards or penalizes.

Most people agree there is not enough emphasis on academics in big-college football. To change this, we must first change the incentives. Today the incentives are exclusively for victory. Coaches and athletic directors are extensively rewarded, with prestige and money, if their teams win. If players graduate, there is no reward, nor any downside if players are used up and thrown away without a diploma. And the bachelor's degree -- which adds $1 million to lifetime earnings -- is worth more economically than the average player could receive in any college pay-for-play scheme.

By ranking teams both on gridiron and graduation, ESPN Grade creates a new, simple way to assess the student-athlete overlap. Alumni and boosters of universities that do well in ESPN Grade should feel proud. Alumni and boosters of universities that do poorly in ESPN Grade should feel embarrassed. And that starts a conversation all of collegiate athletics needs to have.

In other news, the resumption of the football artificial universe approaches. Here's an AFC preview:

Baltimore: The Ravens are streaky. During their 2012 Super Bowl victory run, Baltimore went 1-4 down the stretch to conclude the regular season, then 4-0 in the playoffs. Last season, the Ravens posted a three-game losing streak and a four-game winning streak.

Last season, Baltimore became the 15th of 48 Super Bowl victors to fail to reach the succeeding postseason. The Nevermores followed a Super Bowl trophy season with a missed-the-playoffs season partly owing to declining stats. In 2012, Baltimore was plus-16 in turnovers and allowed 44 sacks in 20 games. In 2013, the club was minus-4 in turnovers and allowed 48 sacks in 16 games. The offense tanked in 2013, dropping to 25th overall. The football gods stopped smiling on Baltimore. In the Super Bowl year, Baltimore completed incredible long plays in the waning seconds in games at San Diego and Denver. No such luck in 2013. Luck is a bigger factor in sports -- and in life -- than commonly acknowledged.

Joey Odoms, who served in Afghanistan, will sing the national anthem for Ravens home games this season. He can belt it out -- here he is auditioning in Afghanistan.

Over the summer, Joe Flacco said of football players, "We're not the brightest people, so therefore how hard can an NFL offense be?" He said this on the Ravens' own website!

Buffalo: The Bills will be sold by the estate of late owner Ralph Wilson. Buffalo has experienced a cycle of long-term economic decline, including population loss. Los Angeles, the nation's No. 2 television market, has no NFL franchise. Toronto, North America's fourth-largest city, is a cosmopolitan boom town with every major sport except the NFL. Doesn't it make sense to relocate the Bills?

Not necessarily. Because the NFL is more dependent on national television revenue than any other sport, where a team plays is not hugely important to business success. Green Bay-Appleton is the 70th-ranked television market in the United States, right below Wichita-Hutchinson, yet Packers financials are sound because so much revenue is attained from national television. Economically, keeping the Bills in Buffalo, where the cost of doing business is low, might actually be more appealing to the next owner than relocating to expensive Los Angeles or Toronto. (Las Vegas would be a different kettle of fish, but the NFL is deeply ambivalent about Sin City.)

The question is whether a new owner who keeps the Bills in Buffalo should get public subsidies for a new stadium. The ideal situation would be that the new owner pays for a new stadium. The notion that government should pay for pro sports facilities might have made sense in the 1960s, when there was hardly any money in sports; it makes little sense today when the NFL wallows in greenbacks. But if the question comes up, should government reach into the pockets of taxpayers to buy the Bills a new facility?

Wilson told me in 2009 that it was unrealistic to expect the city of Buffalo or surrounding Erie County to fund a new stadium for the Bills, owing to the area's weak tax base. So should Albany pay? The state of New York just finished pumping $90 million forcibly removed from taxpayers' pockets into upgrades to the Bills' current facility. The upgrades will increase concession revenue, meaning Empire State taxpayers who live far from Buffalo and may not care one whit about sports already have been taxed to make the Bills more profitable. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in June there would be further subsidies only if Buffalo really needs a new stadium, "which I am not convinced of."

The new owner is likely to be a billionaire. Why should taxpayers with a median household income of $54,000 be compelled to give a new stadium to a billionaire who will keep all profit the facility generates?  As happened, say, with billionaire Paul Allen and CenturyLink Field, where the defending champion Seahawks perform. There, Washington state taxpayers were compelled to foot the cost, and Allen keeps nearly all the profit.

Right now, political pressure is building for a taxpayer-funded new stadium as part of the franchise sale. Roger Goodell has lobbied Cuomo and U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer to compel taxpayers to provide a new stadium for the Bills. The NFL takes in only $10 billion a year and enjoys federal tax and property tax exemptions -- it couldn't possibly afford to pay! Goodell pays himself only $44.2 million a year for running a "nonprofit" -- Goodell couldn't possibly be expected to reduce his personal windfall to help finance a stadium!

Worried he will take the blame if the Bills move -- and needing to divert attention from his considerable ethical problems -- Cuomo now says the state "would be interested" in funding a new stadium if that kept the Bills in Buffalo. That is easy for the governor to say, since taxpayers, not him, will be the ones handed the invoice. How could a huge subsidy for the super-profitable NFL be justified when the state is cutting funding from public schools? (Look up "Gap Elimination Adjustment.") But from Cuomo's standpoint, he might get to make a dramatic announcement claiming a subsidized stadium would generate thousands of jobs, then be out of office before the red ink begins to flow.

Judith Grant Long, an urban planning professor at Harvard, has shown that about 70 percent of the cost of building and operating NFL stadia has been paid by taxpayers -- many not even sports fans. About 95 percent of the revenue the stadia generate is kept by team owners. It's a deeply disturbing arrangement. Andrew Zimbalist, an economist at Smith College, has shown that NFL investments never generate the promised job totals or local economic activity. If there's public money to spend in Buffalo, investments in infrastructure -- schools, transportation, a replacement for the dilapidated Peace Bridge, improving Delaware Park -- would have more of an economic multiplier effect than an NFL field.

This said, if there is one city where public investment in an NFL stadium might be justified, it's Buffalo. Should Atlanta or Miami lose its NFL team, that would be a shame, but these cities would still have strong economies. Should Buffalo lose the Bills, this could be perceived as the "last one turns out the lights" moment, reducing the odds of a Buffalo urban recovery.

Public investment in an NFL stadium might be justified only if the facility is located downtown. The Buffalo News reports that 15 sites are under consideration for a new stadium. Two are in Toronto. Several are suburban, including an abandoned shopping mall property an hour's drive from the city. One is near Niagara Falls, where the tourist activity is on the Canadian side, not the American side. One is on the Buffalo Outer Harbor, which is cut off from downtown by a freeway and doesn't contribute to the pulse of urban life. Only downtown locations should be considered if public funds are spent.

Nobody would have believed 20 years ago that Pittsburgh and Cleveland could bounce back and have trendy downtowns. And nobody believes that about Buffalo now. But already underway on the north side of the city is a complex of a teaching hospital and medical research center that will be among the world's largest and best equipped. Thousands of professionals will move to the city to staff the center. Add the NFL to downtown, and Buffalo might acquire the cachet it needs to rebound.

That brings us to stadium cost. The Buffalo News reports that Bills bidders and local politicians say they expect a new stadium to cost $1 billion. Bruce Fisher, an urban economist at Buffalo State, estimates that because both the Buffalo real estate market and construction business are depressed, a world-class downtown NFL stadium could be built for about $500 million. Fisher thinks the land acquisition and existing property demolition expense would be only $30 million, which is very low by the standards of major urban public works. CenturyLink Field, a magnificent facility in Seattle, located in one of the world's hottest real estate markets, cost $575 million in today's dollars. Why should a similar project in depressed Buffalo cost more?

The answer is corruption. Because there's little economic activity in the Buffalo area, there are few chances for government, construction company and construction union corruption. If the state legislature decides to write a blank check for a new NFL stadium, this will be the biggest candy jar for Buffalo insiders to reach into since Robert Moses.

Bottom line: If taxpayers are to support a new NFL facility for Buffalo, it must be downtown and must be realistically priced.

New urbanism tip: A lively indie arts scene is developing at Silo City, the abandoned grain silos on Buffalo's Lake Erie waterfront. Buffalo's Allentown and Chippewa arts-music-bar districts grow ever trendier. Studio Arena Theater, back in the day an important location for Broadway-bound trials, just returned to existence as 710 Main Theatre, while the nearby Shaw Festival has emerged as among North America's top regional theaters. Delaware Park, designed by Frederick Law Olmsted, awaits discovery as the finest American urban green space other than Olmsted's Central Park.

Starting about 20 years ago, downtown areas of Boston, Chicago, Cincinnati, Washington, D.C., and other cities came roaring back from decline. A decade ago, Pittsburgh's downtown came roaring back. Now Cleveland -- great theater district, the Republican National Convention in 2016 -- is roaring back. Buffalo fell furthest behind, so its recovery may come last. Still, the Buffalo area seems poised near critical mass for roaring back. In Buffalo your housing dollar buys a well-built home in the university district or a good-schools 'burb for the price of a one-bedroom condo in Boston, New York or San Francisco. Yes, it snows, but unlike in Chicago or Washington, the snow is promptly plowed. Yes, it's cold in winter, but summers are a delight. And no traffic jams! Don't be surprised if Buffalo comes roaring back (this paragraph was not sponsored content from the Chamber of Commerce).

As for the Bills, in the offseason, EJ Manuel said he was learning the "nuisances" of his position. Presumably this a malapropism -- he meant "nuances." Unless it was a gaffe, meaning that he accidentally spoke the truth. Also in the offseason, NBC's Luke Russert said the Bills should stay in Buffalo for "all eternity." For a trillion years? Your columnist tweeted, "By then Bills will have won the Super Bowl." Jesse Griffis of East Aurora, New York, tweeted back, "Don't jinx it!"

Cincinnati: "The Bengals played a strong regular season quickly followed by a first-round postseason wheeze-out." I just loaded that sentence into my AutoText, since it describes five of the past nine Cincinnati seasons, including 2013. In his 11 years holding the whistle for the trick-or-treats -- impressive longevity by current NFL standards -- Marvin Lewis is 90-85-1 in the regular season and 0-5 in the postseason. Cincinnati hasn't won a playoff contest since 1991.

Last season, Lewis barely seemed awake on the sideline as Cincinnati lost 27-10 at home to San Diego in the playoffs. Lewis didn't get upset. He didn't try changing strategy as his charges wheezed out again. He just stood there, staring. Employing the passive, retreating tactics for which he is infamous, Lewis three times had his team punt on fourth-and-short in San Diego territory, including on fourth-and-1. Victories don't come in the mail; go win the game!

Two interceptions and a lost fumble by Andy Dalton didn't help. In the offseason, Cincinnati rewarded Dalton with a contract extension with a $115 million paper value and about $25 million guaranteed. Dalton, 0-3 in the postseason, now boasts a richer contract than Tom Brady, 18-8 in the postseason with three Super Bowl rings. Tony Romo, 1-3 in the postseason, also boasts a larger contract than Brady. There are differences in their situations -- Brady is 37, and in his last negotiation sought higher guarantees in exchange for lower maximum. But these three contracts tell us much about the goofy state of pro sports economics.

Reader Ty Kuck of Batavia, Ohio, notes that the Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl with conventional, conservative defense, while Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther has decided to try gimmick fronts.

Give the ball to the law firm! The Bengals and Patriots are a combined 32-5 when BenJarvus Green-Ellis scored a touchdown for them.

Unified Field Theory of Creep: Reader Natalie Pasternack of Palo Alto, California, notes that at around the Fourth of July, Kmart began running ads themed "the new school year starts here."

Cleveland: Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan had Robert Griffin III in Washington and now has Johnny Manziel in Cleveland. The media circus around RG III may have prepared him for the media circus around Manziel. Let's hope experience with the pounding Griffin took when he rushed 120 times in his rookie regular season is fresh in Shanahan's mind, too. If Johnny Football runs around like a madman as he did in college, his career will be short -- defenders are so much faster and stronger than they once were; Fran Tarkenton couldn't use his crazed scrambling style today, either.

Colin Kaepernick has learned to head for the sideline when he runs. Manziel must learn this. Even should Josh Gordon get to play, the Browns have a weak receiving corps. That will tempt Manziel to take off running. Or it may tempt Cleveland management to trade some of the team's stockpiled draft choices for receiving help now (Cleveland holds two choices in the 2015 first round, plus other extra selections).

The Browns used the eighth overall choice of the 2014 draft on corner Justin Gilbert, who is athletically gifted. A generation ago, scouts would have shied away from a corner from Oklahoma State, fearing all he'd know is run support. Today's Oklahoma and Texas college teams are as pass-wacky as they come. Last season against Texas Tech, the Cowboys defended 71 pass attempts.

In anticipation of new officiating emphasis on defensive holding, the Browns' secondary has been wearing boxing gloves in scrimmages, conditioning them not to grab. The Browns also should condition Manziel not to make the "money" gesture after a touchdown pass. If he does this any more than occasionally in the NFL, he'll be inviting a backlash from sportsyak radio and "First Take."

Denver: Now with five Super Bowl losses, the Broncos have taken the pressure off the Bills and Vikings (four losses apiece). And when Denver loses a Super Bowl, the Broncs really lose; their defeats are by 45, 35, 32, 19 and 17 points. Perhaps the altitude advantage that assists Denver during the regular season, and at home playoffs games, propels the Broncos to Super Bowls where they don't really belong.

With Peyton Manning, the Broncos have endured two consecutive awesome regular seasons followed by bummer endings. Denver's awesome 2012 regular season led to the team allowing a 70-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of regulation of a home playoff game, then losing in overtime. Denver's awesome 2013 regular season led to a 43-8 crushing by Seattle in the Super Bowl. Will 2013 be another awesome regular season followed by a letdown?

Manning has thrown interceptions returned for touchdowns in his last two Super Bowl appearances, and teams that give up a pick-six are 0-12 in the ultimate contest. Manning used a bright green football in Broncos minicamps to help ball-security awareness. At least the old dog is willing to try to learn a new trick.

The Broncos' record-setting offense was a stat-a-matic in 2013. Here are leftover amazing stats from that season. What were the highest scoring teams per quarter in 2013? First quarter: Denver, 130 points. Second quarter: Denver, 158 points. Third quarter: Denver, 135 points. Fourth quarter: Denver, 183 points. But after leading the league in scoring in every quarter of the regular season, the Broncos failed to score in three of the four quarters of the Super Bowl.

As Denver's chief executive, former great John Elway is 37-17. As chief executive of the Wizards and Bobcats, former great Michael Jordan is 285-488.

Houston: "Meltdown" is sugarcoating the Moo Cows' situation. Since reaching 11-1 to open the 2012 season, Houston has gone 4-18, held without a touchdown on five occasions. At the 11-1 juncture in 2012, Houston went to New England for a "Monday Night Football" contest that Texans faithful viewed as the team's debutante party -- a chance for the nation to see in prime time what the Texans could do. Houston was blown off the field, trailing 42-7 early in the fourth quarter. The Texans' confidence was shattered and has not recovered.

Now the Texans enter 2014 with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who owns a 27-49-1 career record as a starting quarterback, backed by Case Keenum, who's never won an NFL start, and rookie Tom Savage, who didn't play anywhere in 2011 and 2012. What could go wrong?

The Texans are in meltdown status despite one of the most overstaffed front offices in sports -- or perhaps because of the overstaffed front office. Houston lists a chairman and CEO, a vice chairman and COO, a general manager, a president, two executive vice presidents, two senior vice presidents, six regular vice presidents, six senior directors, 13 regular directors, a controller, a general counsel and a senior adviser. This, despite the fact that 85 percent of the team's revenue comes from the league's master television contract, into which the club has no input. If Wal-Mart had the same ratio of top management executives to income as the Houston Texans, Wal-Mart would employ 63,000 senior executives.

Tick, Tick, Tick -- '24' or '60 Minutes'? The "24" franchise is up to nine seasons and 204 episodes, meaning Jack Bauer has fired that special gun that never needs reloading for more episodes than Jerry Seinfeld and Julia Louis-Dreyfus fired one-liners. The latest iteration dropped to the status of a summer show, and took place in an alternate-reality London.

That imaginary city is a favorite destination of pop lit from Mary Poppins to Harry Potter to steampunk. In the alternative-reality London of "24," driving scenes repeatedly showed central London rolling by the windows without the car ever so much as slowing down, let alone stopping for a light or traffic. If you haven't been lately, London is the most traffic-clogged metropolis in all the world. But by the show's clock, it took Bauer four minutes to drive from an industrial area in East London to the United States embassy in Westminster, and three minutes to drive from central London to suburban Hampton, using an M3 motorway on which there was not a single other car. Jack and Chloe found a grainy CCTV image of an evildoer boarding the Tube. After the train departed, they jumped into a Volvo and reached the next station before the train arrived, racing down London streets where there were no other cars in sight.

Of course, all measures of time accelerate on "24." New character Kate Morgan, a valorous CIA agent, saves Jack's life at 3:06 p.m. Jack was barricaded in the safe room of the U.S. embassy in London, about to be killed by a huge force of Marines. Luckily, Kate knew about the gigantic air shaft that led directly to the safe room! By 3:17, Kate had driven across London, cracked a complicated computer code that stumped military intelligence and been suspended because of a "formal complaint that a Marine at the embassy" filed regarding her actions at 3:06. Thus, it took 11 minutes from when a Marine said, "How do I file a formal complaint about unauthorized use of an embassy air shaft?" until the complaint had been written, gone up the chain at the Pentagon, been reviewed by the State Department and accepted by CIA top brass at Langley. On "24," even the revolution of the Earth about its axis accelerates -- it's light at 6:31 p.m., pitch dark at 6:37 p.m.

Next Week TMQ's NFC preview.