How the contenders stack up

ByHEATHER DINICH
December 2, 2014, 11:34 AM

— -- It's time to see who made the grade.

On Friday, the 12 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will travel to Dallas to watch the conference championship games together -- the final audition for bubble teams across the country to make their case to be in the top four.

For teams with comparable résumés, a conference championship game will be used as a tiebreaker (unless it's in the Big 12). On Sunday, the committee will reveal its final Top 25 ranking.

Until then, this report card can help.

Here's a breakdown of how each team has fared, using both ESPN metrics (game control and strength of record) and categories the committee will use to evaluate the contenders. The committee will consider head-to-head competition and comparative outcomes of common opponents -- without putting an emphasis on margin of victory.

Here are the top contenders, in alphabetical order:

Alabama Crimson Tide

The Crimson Tide will face Missouri on Saturday in the SEC title game, and ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Tide an 82 percent chance to win. If they do, Alabama should be a lock for one of the four playoff spots.

Eye Test: Alabama allowed Auburn 628 total yards. The Tide had three turnovers in the Iron Bowl win. They have hardly been a flawless team, but they have been one of the most complete teams nonetheless. Blake Sims has been inconsistent but at his best when it mattered most (late against LSU, second half against Auburn).

Grade: A. Alabama's only loss was on the road to Ole Miss, and it has two wins against teams currently ranked in the committee's Top 25.

Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats were picked to finish fourth in the Pac-12's South division, and they've exceeded everyone's expectations but their own. The question now is if they can do it again. Arizona will get a chance to beat Oregon twice in the same season when they meet Friday in the Pac-12 title game.

Eye Test: Arizona's defense, led by Scooby Wright, has been clutch, and that was on display in the win over rival ASU. Arizona is No. 11 in the country in sacks and tackles for loss. QB Anu Solomon has been poised and efficient, but the Wildcats couldn't score for the final 57 minutes in a loss to UCLA.

Grade: C-. There's no escaping two losses, but if Arizona can beat Oregon to win the Pac-12 title, the selection committee would have to consider the Wildcats for one of the top four spots. The light nonconference schedule would be called into question.

Baylor Bears

The Bears host K-State on Saturday in what will be their final chance to impress the selection committee with the hope of jumping TCU in the final ranking. It's the only piece of the puzzle missing from Baylor's résumé, but will it be enough to overcome a weak nonconference schedule and loss to WVU?

Eye Test: The Bears were fortunate to beat Texas Tech after almost blowing a 25-point lead entirely. Bryce Petty & Co. can score on anyone, but this team has to be more disciplined. Texas Tech is the only team in the country that has more penalties.

Grade: C+. The nonconference schedule is glaring, as those three opponents are a combined 11-23. Couple that with the loss to West Virginia, and there's no doubt the Bears need some style points in a win over K-State to further separate themselves from TCU.

Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles are the only undefeated team remaining, and they have won 28 straight games. They're the defending national champs. Yet they've never been ranked No. 1 by the selection committee. FSU will face Georgia Tech in the ACC title game Saturday; that's a tricky spread option to prepare for on short notice. Win, and they're in.

Eye Test: This is where the Noles fail miserably. They have trailed at the half in five games and have trailed for 263 offensive plays. Their scoring margin of 12.6 points per game is the lowest for a 12-0 team in at least the past 10 seasons. FSU is No. 101 in the country in rushing offense and hence thrilled by the emergence of freshman Dalvin Cook.

Grade: B+ This team continues to defy the odds. Jameis Winston, who threw four interceptions against rival Florida, doesn't look like the Heisman winner he is. But they don't lose. Until they do, they're in the playoff.

Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes have yet to crack the selection committee's top four. Now they have one chance left to play their way in -- and they have to do it with their third-string quarterback, Cardale Jones. The season-ending injury to J.T. Barrett didn't end Ohio State's playoff hopes, but a loss in the Big Ten championship will.

Eye Test: The Buckeyes had three turnovers at home in a win over Indiana and three in the win against Minnesota. They also squandered a 17-point lead and needed two overtimes to beat Penn State. The Buckeyes have been excellent, though, at getting into opponents' backfields and piling up tackles for loss and sacks. The question is if the Buckeyes pass the eye test with Jones in the lineup.

Grade: B-. There are plenty of excuses for the home loss to Virginia Tech -- none greater than Barrett's second game as a starter against a stingy Hokies' defense. But Ohio State hasn't played like a top-four team since its game at Michigan State.

Oregon Ducks

The Ducks will face Pac-12 South winner Arizona in the league championship game, and though ESPN's FPI gives them a 74 percent chance to win, history sides with the Wildcats. In the past two seasons, Oregon is 0-2 against Arizona and 22-1 against all other teams. If Oregon can avoid the upset, it should be a lock for a playoff spot.

Eye Test: Marcus Mariota should win the Heisman, but how about that D? It's ranked behind Alabama, Florida State, TCU and Ohio State in scoring defense. TCU, Baylor, Alabama and Ohio State have also been stingier on third-down defense. UCLA was 11-of-19 on third downs against the Ducks; that's almost 58 percent. And Oregon is one of the most penalized teams in the country. But Mariota? Wow.

Grade: A The Ducks' home loss to Arizona is glaring -- the Wildcats were 24-point underdogs -- but the committee considers injuries, and Oregon was missing three starters on its offensive line and relying on a true freshman and former walk-on at tackle. The fact that Arizona won its division also helps soften the blow of that loss.

TCU Horned Frogs

In spite of Baylor's win, the Horned Frogs have been ranked ahead of Baylor each of the past five weeks, and both are one win from sharing the Big 12 title. Should both win, the league would declare them co-champs, and it would be up to the selection committee to decide who gets the higher ranking.

Eye Test: The struggle in a 34-30 win against 3-9 Kansas sticks out, as the Frogs trailed by 10 points in the third quarter of that game. TCU also squandered a 21-point lead in the loss to Baylor, but the defense has been above average and held opponents to 21.9 points per game. It was the difference in the win at WVU, and it smothered Texas.

Grade: B. The Frogs have wins against three teams still ranked by the committee, and they're one of the most improved teams in the country with one of the most improved quarterbacks in Heisman hopeful Trevone Boykin.