With Draymond Green suspended, who wins Cavs-Warriors Game 5?

— -- Now that the NBA has suspended Draymond Green after his actions against LeBron James in Game 4, the outcome of the NBA Finals is no longer a foregone conclusion.

How will Game 5 go now that Green is suspended? And how will the series play out?

The removal of Golden State's soul and defensive anchor -- its second-most-valuable player this season -- adds a huge element of uncertainty about the Warriors' game plan and ability to close out the Cleveland Cavaliers for their second straight NBA title.

Splash Brothers played few minutes without Green

Green was the last member of Golden State's current starting five to claim a spot, not emerging as the starting power forward until incumbent David Lee was injured in October 2014. But Green has become the most consistent fixture of the group. He has missed only four games since then, including just one as the Warriors went 73-9 during the 2015-16 regular season.

Golden State has won this season without Stephen Curry, who missed three games during the regular season and four more during the playoffs because of injury. Klay Thompson has missed only two games, but his penchant for picking up cheap fouls occasionally puts him on the bench for extended stretches. Green is a different story.

Green did miss one game during the regular season, getting a rest as the Warriors lost at Denver on Jan. 13. But that and a lopsided win over the Dallas Mavericks two weeks later were the lone two times all season in which Green has played fewer than 26 minutes in a game.

So nearly 93 percent of all minutes at least one of the Splash Brothers has been on the court across the regular season and playoffs have come alongside Green.

Moreover, of the 2,464 minutes Curry and Thompson have both played this season, only 118 have come with Green on the bench, according to NBAwowy.com. During that brief 118-minute span, Golden State scored 114.6 points per 100 possessions -- which is excellent but notably worse than the team's 119.4 offensive rating with all three All-Stars on the court.

And the Warriors allowed an unimpressive 108.6 points per 100 possessions with Curry and Thompson but not Green, as compared to only 101.3 with Curry, Thompson and Green on the floor together.

The Warriors' plus-6.0 net rating with Curry and Thompson playing but not Green is similar to what the Cleveland Cavaliers managed across all lineups (plus-5.8) during the regular season. That's good, but not nearly as effective as similar lineups with Green on the floor.

Of course, the Splash Brothers won't be able to play together the entire game. Golden State coach Steve Kerr will probably need to manage his rotation to keep either Curry or Thompson on the court at all times to create offense. With Curry as the lone All-Star on the court, the Warriors have only a slightly positive net rating in 174 minutes, and they've been outscored in the 337 minutes Thompson has played with neither Curry nor Green.

In other words, Green probably will be sorely missed on both ends.

No Green means no Death Lineup

Perhaps the biggest downside to Green's suspension is it removes the Death Lineup, with Green at center and four versatile perimeter players around him, as an option for Kerr. While Kerr opted not to start the Death Lineup in Game 4, it did play a season-high 31 possessions, outscoring the Cleveland Cavaliers by eight points in an 11-point win.

Presumably, Kerr will start a modified version of the Death Lineup with Andre Iguodala in the mix and Harrison Barnes sliding down to the power forward spot he assumes in the Death Lineup.

But the real key to the Death Lineup's success is Green's ability to defend bigger opponents while also giving Golden State five players who can handle the ball and shoot 3s. Traditional starting center Andrew Bogut doesn't offer that same versatility and has played only 24 minutes all season with that lineup, according to NBAwowy.com.

Defensively, the closest facsimile to the Death Lineup will have James Michael McAdoo in the middle in place of Green. McAdoo, who had not previously been used in the Finals or conference finals, came off the bench for seven minutes in Game 4 and could assume a larger role in Green's absence. McAdoo is the remaining center option best suited to switching out defensively on smaller guards. Offensively, however, he provides none of Green's shooting or playmaking.

Starting Iguodala and playing Barnes at power forward also stretches Kerr's perimeter rotation. In Game 4, Iguodala and Shaun Livingston were the two reserves he used on the perimeter, with Leandro Barbosa picking up a DNP-CD.

Expect Barbosa to return to the rotation in the hopes that he can be as effective as he was at home in Games 1 and 2. Beyond him, it's possible that little-used reserves like Ian Clark and Brandon Rush could pick up a few extra minutes as Kerr tries to keep his starters fresh for the fourth quarter.

Formula for a Warriors victory

The first key for the Warriors will be maintaining their success on the defensive glass during the second half of Game 5. After surrendering 10 offensive rebounds to Cleveland and securing just 56.5 percent of available defensive rebounds during the first half, Golden State rebounded a respectable 72.7 percent of available misses after halftime. That was the result of a team effort, with Thompson chipping in as many defensive rebounds as Green (four apiece).

The other great equalizer for the Warriors is their shooting, particularly by Curry and Thompson. They certainly get easier looks with Green. According to player-tracking data, the quantified shot probability (qSP) of Curry's shots with Green on the court is an expected effective field-goal percentage of 60.5, as compared to 55.9 with Green on the bench. (Thompson's qSP sees a smaller decline from 56.1 to 54.6 percent.)

Still, in a single game, if Curry and Thompson get hot, it doesn't matter how difficult their shots are. A big performance by the Splash Brothers, along with the whole team focusing on the defensive glass, can help Golden State clinch the championship without Green.

On a neutral court, the Cavaliers would probably be favored over a Golden State team without Green. Fortunately for the Warriors, Oracle Arena is anything but a neutral court -- particularly with a chance to win a championship at home after claiming last year's title in Cleveland. And Golden State needs only win a single game without Green, not a whole series.

So while a Green suspension presents an unexpected boost to the Cavaliers' chances of extending the series, and a win in Game 5 would allow Cleveland to play at home for the chance to force a Game 7, the most likely scenario remains the Warriors winning and celebrating a championship without one of their most valuable players around to enjoy it.