How do the Heat move forward if Chris Bosh cannot play?

— -- With the latest news about the significant health issues facing forward? Chris Bosh, how would playing without Bosh affect the Miami Heat's 2016-17 outlook? And what does it mean for the team moving forward?

As the Heat prepare for training camp, they'll do so without Bosh. Team president Pat Riley said on Monday that Bosh's "Heat career is probably over" and that the team is not actively working toward his return.

In addition to the unfortunate personal impact on Bosh, it affects the team and its plans on the court.

Let's take a look at how the Heat project without Bosh -- and how that affects the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Projecting the 2016-17 Miami Heat

The Heat were able to regroup when Bosh was sidelined after last year's All-Star break, going 19-10 without him and coming within a game of the Eastern Conference finals. But the 2016-17 Miami roster will look substantially different after three playoff starters -- guard Dwyane Wade and forwards Luol Deng and Joe Johnson -- left via free agency.

As a result, the Heat didn't get much value from the cap space created by Wade's departure. None of the six veterans Miami added (guards Wayne Ellington and Dion Waiters, forwards Luke Babbitt, James Johnson and Derrick Williams and center Willie Reed) projects as even league average by ESPN's real plus-minus. Ellington and Williams project at less than replacement level.

It's these newcomers who figure to take on a larger role if Bosh is unable to play. With him, the Heat could still put out a solid starting lineup in Bosh, Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow and either Johnson or Josh Richardson. Whoever replaces Bosh in that fivesome will be a major downgrade, leaving Miami with a thin bench.

Even with Bosh, RPM projections pegged the Heat as a below-.500 team with an average of 38.6 wins -- still good enough to put Miami on the edge of the race for the eighth seed in the East. Taking Bosh out of the picture drops the Heat to a projected 35.5 wins.

Projecting the East playoff race

Between the Bosh news and a hamstring injury that is expected to sideline Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton for six months, it's been a bad week for playoff hopefuls in the East. Our original RPM projections from last month had Milwaukee seventh in the East and Miami 10th, though they were within a win of the eighth-ranked Indiana Pacers.

Because Bosh's availability for the whole season was always a question mark, and because the Bucks have weaker depth on the wing, Middleton's injury causes Milwaukee's projection to take a bigger tumble. Including newly acquired forward Michael Beasley, the Bucks are now projected for an average of 33.8 wins, dropping them to 13th in the East.

Their misfortune is the gain of other East playoff hopefuls, including the Chicago Bulls -- now ninth -- and the New York Knicks, who have jumped past Milwaukee and would rank just behind the Bosh-less Heat in the projected East standings.

While some East playoff contenders will surely perform better than projected, the last week has made it more likely that a below-.500 team will make the postseason. That's a major change from last season, when 10 East teams won at least half of their games.

Looking ahead

If Bosh is unable to return to the court, Miami can apply for an injury exclusion for his salary on the one-year anniversary of his last game -- Feb. 9. Per Larry Coon's salary-cap FAQ, such an exclusion requires an independent physician to determine the injury or illness is career-ending or "continuing to play constitutes a medically unacceptable risk," which could apply to Bosh's condition.

The exclusion is crucial because it would remove Bosh's salary from the Heat's books. And that would in turn put Miami in position to clear more than $35 million in space under the projected 2017-18 salary cap, with the potential to add to that total if Waiters opts for free agency.

With Bosh under contract, the Heat would be close to the salary cap, so their decision to hold a hard line on future spending this summer makes sense only in the context of his potential medical retirement. In that scenario, Miami would immediately become a contender to add a max free agent. Dealing additional players, like Dragic, could put the Heat in position to hand out max deals to two players to complement their young core of Johnson, Richardson, Whiteside and Winslow.

Such a decision might remain months away, but the news of the last week brings it one step closer to becoming a reality for Bosh and the Miami organization.