Jackson could be right about that decision not being decisive. Going small might not have changed the outcome, as the Warriors are overmatched in this series.
Even when playing their bigs, they were smashed by DeAndre Jordan (14 points, 22 rebounds, 5 blocks) and Blake Griffin (32 points, 8 rebounds, 1 block). Going small can't prevent the Clippers from dominating the paint at will. The Warriors can run, but they can't hide.
For all the questions of what Curry, Iguodala, Klay Thompson and David Lee need to do more of, there exists the possibility that it all doesn't matter. Without Bogut, Golden State is probably dead money. The shortened analysis of this series could well be, "Andrew Bogut makes $14 million for a reason."
They've been run aground by a dearth of competent screen setting, something Bogut excelled at. Curry has been harassed by traps on the pick and roll, but he's also been afforded little help from screeners. Jackson wanted the screens to be a point of emphasis in this game, and the Warriors tried. The result was a couple of early offensive fouls, with Warriors players sloppily blurring the line between screen and tackle.
Golden State figured to be an underdog even with a healthy Bogut. Without his presence, Jordan conjures mid-1990s Shaquille O'Neal. The Warriors lack size, and whatever size they do have is slow.
Paul's hamstring clearly isn't healthy, so it's possible the Warriors still have a chance. It's just difficult to watch how their offense has played this season -- how it's played in this series -- and come away believing they'll overcome an opponent with superior talent.