Numbers show Will Grier was huge spark for improved Florida offense

— -- So, barring an amazingly quick and successful appeal, the Florida Gators will be without redshirt freshman quarterback Will Grier this week against LSU and throughout the rest of the season.

There are still plenty of unanswered questions surrounding Grier's positive test for a banned substance, but the question at the forefront for most fans is simply, "How does this impact Florida's chance to win on Saturday and beyond?"

Let's start with the basics. Florida went 7-5 last season and is 6-0 to start this season. The obvious difference between the teams has been on offense. A year ago, the Gators ranked 88th in ESPN's offensive efficiency metric. This year, that ranking is up to 37th. That's a significant improvement, and Grier was a big reason for it.

To say that QB play was the Achilles' heel of the 2014 Florida team would be an understatement. Of the 17 SEC quarterbacks who had at least 150 action plays last season, the Gators' tandem of Jeff Driskel and Treon Harris ranked 17th and 15th, respectively, in Total QBR. And even though Grier's current QBR ranking of eighth in the conference isn't outstanding, he was enough of an upgrade that the quarterback position was no longer a liability for Florida. That's a big deal when combined with a top-level defense.

The aforementioned efficiency and Total QBR numbers are based on a metric called expected points added (EPA) which, among other things, divides credit (or blame) for the scoring margin among the offense, defense and special teams. Florida's six games this season include four against teams UF played last season -- Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky and East Carolina. Using those common opponents as points of comparison, EPA shows how much better the Gators' offense has been in 2015.

Against those teams last season, Florida's offensive EPA per game was -8.3 (yes, a negative number). Against the same opponents this season, the offense has added 1.5 expected points per game. Make no mistake, that's not a great offensive performance in 2015, but it's still about 10 points per game better than in 2014, which is a huge improvement, especially with the defensive performance in those games having been virtually identical (15.5 EPA per game in 2015, 16.1 EPA per game in 2014).

If you're a Florida fan, you can choose whether to take the glass half-empty or half-full approach. On the bright side, Harris has a Total QBR of 81.5 this season, which is far better than his 55.7 from last season. Perhaps that means that he's improved under new head coach Jim McElwain and could surprise people this weekend. The pessimist, however, would point to Harris having racked up the bulk of his 2015 numbers against New Mexico State and East Carolina. He hasn't attempted a pass since that ECU game on Sept. 12, and Tiger Stadium isn't the ideal spot for a QB to shake off the rust.

Either way, Florida's formula for winning must remain the same. The offense doesn't need to be spectacular. It just needs to avoid critical errors and give the defense a chance to lead the way to victory. And that, of course, means finding a way to slow down Leonard Fournette. If the Gators can do that, it will be very interesting to see how Les Miles responds.

Prior to last week against South Carolina, one of the weakest defenses in the Power 5 conferences, LSU sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris had never attempted 20 passes in a game. Will Miles allow Harris to put the ball in the air very often if the Tigers don't have favorable down-and-distance situations? Or will he elect, as he's done before in big games, to play field-position football and see if the opposing offense will make the first big mistake?

The reality is that this game was probably going to be decided by the LSU rushing attack versus the Florida defense, no matter who was under center for UF. But even if the Gators hold their own in that battle, will it be enough to win without Grier throwing passes?

Florida wishes that question never had to be asked.