Trade grades: Who wins Pacers-Raptors deal for Joseph and Miles?
The deal
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Raptors get: guard C.J. Miles
Pacers get: guard Cory Joseph
Toronto Raptors: B
Let's consider this a comprehensive grade for the two trades the Raptors have struck in the past 24 hours, the first of which sent? DeMarre Carroll and 2018 first- and second-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for center Justin Hamilton.
Here's how I'm thinking about the two transactions: Toronto traded Joseph into Indiana's cap space in a cost-saving move, then gave up the picks to upgrade Carroll into Miles on a reported three-year, $25 million contract. Both halves of that transaction make sense to me.
Because of the Raptors' depth at point guard, Joseph was somewhat expendable after they re-signed Kyle Lowry. Don't get me wrong: Toronto will miss Joseph's ability to credibly stretch the floor alongside Lowry as a league-average 3-point shooter. Likely replacement Delon Wright isn't that kind of 3-point threat, though he's an even better defender with the size to match up with shooting guards.
In Wright and second-year guard Fred VanVleet, the Raptors had capable backup and third-string point guards pushed down to third and fourth on the depth chart because of their depth at the position. That was particularly a waste of Wright's cost-controlled rookie contract years. Toronto also had to consider the possibility of Joseph leaving or at best getting a big raise next summer, when he could have become an unrestricted free agent.
Although this trade officially is Joseph for Miles, I don't really consider Miles part of the return because the Raptors could have simply signed him outright using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception. The only benefit to structuring this as a sign-and-trade instead of two separate transactions is allowing Toronto to retain its midlevel, which the team is unlikely to use at this point anyway.
Given that, getting some value in return for Joseph would have been nice, even if it were only moving the salary of either Hamilton or backup center Lucas Nogueira. (Though Hamilton can't be aggregated as part of a trade for two months, the Pacers could have simply acquired him using cap space in a transaction that would technically be separate.)
That noted, the ability to add Miles was surely a crucial part of the Raptors' decision to trade Carroll. He was the one free agent realistically available within Toronto's budget who could credibly be considered an upgrade on Carroll. The moves sacrifice some defensive versatility -- the lanky Miles isn't as effective defending bigger small forwards as Carroll -- in exchange for more efficient scoring.
Fueled by 41.3 percent 3-point shooting, Miles posted a career-best .592 true shooting percentage last season -- far better than Carroll's .530 mark. While Miles is likely to regress from that accuracy, he's more of a 3-point threat overall because of his superior volume beyond the arc.
Miles' contract is also a lot friendlier. Presuming he picks up a 2019-20 player option, Miles will make less over the next three seasons than Carroll over the next two. In conjunction with shedding Joseph's contract, that makes the Raptors' payroll much more manageable. Now, Toronto projects just over the tax line pending Lowry potentially hitting the $2.3 million in incentives in his contract. The Raptors should be able to make moves midseason to avoid the tax altogether.
Trading a first-round pick for tax savings still isn't ideal, but now that it doesn't figure to simultaneously hurt Toronto on the court this season, that sacrifice is much more understandable.
Indiana Pacers: B
Likewise, from the Pacers' standpoint, it makes more sense to think of this deal as simply taking Joseph into cap space instead of a sign-and-trade. Miles wasn't likely to return and Indiana was below the cap without his cap hold, allowing the team to make the same trade without him.
The Pacers weren't going to do better with $7.6 million in cap space than adding Joseph, who figures to battle fellow newcomer Darren Collison for the starting point guard job. Joseph will be the better defender of that duo, and if you squint hard you can imagine him becoming a younger version of George Hill in Indiana's system.
To accomplish that, Joseph will have to score more efficiently. Despite the best 3-point shooting of his career, Joseph still had a below-average .518 true shooting percentage last season -- worse even than Carroll's (.530). Because he rarely gets to the free throw line and attempts a relatively low percentage of his shots beyond the arc, Joseph is too dependent on scoring via 2-pointers to be particularly efficient.
Assuming Joseph declines his 2018-19 player option to test free agency, the Pacers will have a year to determine how he fits with their young core before deciding whether to re-sign him. Since Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic (Indiana's other addition in free agency) have only part of their 2018-19 salaries guaranteed, the Pacers will have a chance to pivot next summer based on this year's results.
Acquiring Joseph does mean Indiana is close to done in free agency. The Pacers are down to $5.7 million in remaining cap space, presuming they plan to hang on to the non-guaranteed contracts of Glenn Robinson?III and Kevin Seraphin.
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