Washington better be wary -- USC has the hot hand

— -- There is a 43 percent chance that at least one of the top six teams in the College Football Playoff rankings loses this weekend, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Considering five of the six are playing unranked teams, that's a big enough percentage to raise some eyebrows, eh?

The team most likely to lose? That would be No. 4 Washington, though FPI gives the Huskies a 78.6 percent chance of beating No. 20 USC at Husky Stadium.

Whatever. We're pressing the "Upset Alert!" button on Washington. Big time.

What about No. 3 Michigan's visit to Iowa? The Hawkeyes are fully capable of taking down the Wolverines -- just ask Penn State fans about what happened in 2008.

Finally, the nation's most intriguing team might be No. 9 Auburn, as the Tigers, after a slow start, look like a legitimate threat to give No. 1 Alabama a challenge on Nov. 26, and an Iron Bowl upset could cause major headaches for the CFP selection committee.

No. 20 USC has the talent to topple No. 4 Washington

When you ask coaches about USC's visit to Washington, there's genuine enthusiasm and curiosity about the matchup. There's also a warning to not be deceived by the Trojans' 6-3 record. This is a young team that has grown up and improved, particularly since Sam Darnold became the starting quarterback.

"They looked really good on Saturday [against Oregon]," an FBS offensive coordinator said. "I'll tell you, if you made me choose between playing SC or Washington, I might rather play Washington, to be honest. They both are really good. But if you watch them both warm up and didn't know anything about them, you'd choose to play Washington. Just pure talent, 11 guys on the field."

An FBS defensive coordinator said simply, "USC is the most talented team in the Pac-12."

There's a lot to like about Washington, including its 12-game win streak (second-longest active streak in the FBS behind that of Alabama), average scoring margin of 31.3 points per game and stunning plus-22 turnover margin this season. The Huskies score 48 points per game and lead the FBS in offensive efficiency.

But USC has the skill and, perhaps most importantly, the offensive line to move the ball against the Huskies, and the Trojans also have the talent in their secondary to slow down QB Jake Browning, whose 34 touchdown passes with just three interceptions translate to an FBS-best plus-31 TD-INT differential.

It will start with the Trojans' running game. The Huskies' defense features a blocker-gobbling, three-man line that averages 324 pounds, which allows the linebackers to play off the ball and the safeties to play deep. Few teams have been able to consistently run the ball against the Huskies, but the Trojans' line is big and talented, and the dynamic duo of Trojans RBs  Ronald Jones and Justin Davis (if healthy) often needs just a small hole.

"I think USC will have a chance [to run the ball] because their guards are good players and their center is a good player too," the defensive coordinator said. "Those backs are so fast. All they got to do is run stretch and let those suckers find a crease and go."

The Huskies won't have their best pass-rusher in DE/OLB Joe Mathis, who is out for at least the rest of the regular season after foot surgery. Earlier in the season, Mathis was the chief reason the Huskies didn't have to blitz to pressure the opposing quarterback.

"That's a big loss. There's a big drop-off from Mathis to the next guy [ Connor O'Brien and Benning Potoa'e]," an offensive coach said. "They did some shuffling around on passing downs, and they're blitzing more to get that pass rush, to make up for Mathis' absence."

Further, Darnold, a redshirt freshman, is tough to get your hands on. No Power 5 QB has been sacked at a lower rate (1.4 percent), and Darnold has gained confidence since his first start Sept. 23 against Utah. Although much of the talk has been about his mobility compared to that of the player he replaced, Max Browne, Darnold owns A-list skills as a passer.

"He is a helluva player, and he is getting better every week," the defensive coach said. "He's a really accurate passer, he can run, and he's a great competitor. His mobility brings an extra element to that offense. He extends plays, and he can run it. He might cause some problems for Washington."

If the Trojans can run -- they've been averaging 267 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry on their five-game win streak -- that will set up play-action for what figures to be a strength-on-strength matchup between the Huskies' secondary and the USC receivers.

"[Washington's] secondary is as good as it gets," an offensive coach said. "The corners are really good. [Safety Budda Baker] is a really good player but not a great cover guy. We thought he was their weak link in coverage. He makes lots of plays and flies around, but if you can find ways to make him cover and isolate him, you can make some plays. I'm interested to see if USC sees the same thing we did."

On the other side of the ball, it's another strength-on-strength matchup between Browning -- with deep threat John Ross -- and a very good USC secondary. The question for USC is whether its young front seven has matured enough to slow the Huskies' ground game. Browning feasts on defenses that are forced to put extra men in the box to slow RB Myles Gaskin.

"[Washington's] offensive line is a bunch of grinders," the defensive coach said. "They are tough. They've got a guard, a freshman [ Nick Harris], he's one to watch. That sucker doesn't have unbelievable size, but he is tough as nails, quick on his feet. Then they've got the big, 6-foot-7 tackles."

As for Browning, he ranks second in the nation in QBR behind Louisville's Lamar Jackson. He has thrown a touchdown on 15.5 percent of his passes this year, which is on pace to break the FBS single-season record. At the beginning of the season, many questioned Browning's arm strength. That isn't happening anymore.

"If he doesn't have a strong arm, you could fool me," the defensive coach said. "I don't think he has the arm that Darnold has, but he can sling it. Look at the film. Look at how many deep outs he throws to Ross and how many deep completions he gets. He might not have a super-strength arm, but he can throw it, and he is efficient. He is as good as they get with his accuracy on the deep ball."

While Washington is the new, rising national power, USC hasn't had a six-game win streak within a single season since 2008, when it last played in a major bowl game. This is a big opportunity for first-year coach Clay Helton to make a statement in front of a national audience with ESPN's College GameDay on hand.

Pay attention to surging Auburn

If you were making a list of once-struggling teams that you'd rather not play right now, Auburn might top that list. After a 1-2 start that had coach Gus Malzahn on the hot seat, the Tigers have surged to six consecutive wins, and they head to reeling Georgia on Saturday. The Tigers rank seventh in FPI, which is tops among two-loss teams.

"Auburn might be the most improved team in the country since mid-September," the NFL scout said. "They've found their downhill running game, taken some pressure off QB Sean White and relied on a defense that is anchored by their front line. People questioned the hiring of Kevin Steele in the offseason as the defensive coordinator, but he has done a solid job and fit in well with Malzahn & Co."

Auburn's surge has turned the Iron Bowl on Nov. 26 at top-ranked Alabama into a very interesting game, and not only because it's a bitter, in-state rivalry between two potentially top-10 teams to conclude the season. Just imagine if Auburn upsets the Crimson Tide? Perhaps that's a long shot, but the ramifications could be huge.

First, that could earn Auburn the SEC West title and a spot in the SEC title game. If the Tigers won in Atlanta, how would the CFP committee treat a two-loss SEC champ? What about a one-loss Alabama, which was dominant all season against a rugged schedule but didn't win its division?

That might be the most obvious way for the committee to pick two teams from one Power 5 conference, thereby sending fans of the teams left out into a frenzy with torches and pitchforks. For sure, stranger things have happened.

Matchup of the week: Minnesota S Damarius Travis vs. Nebraska TE Cethan Carter

Don't look now, but the winner of the Minnesota-Nebraska game will be in first place in the Big Ten's West Division, tied with Wisconsin, so this is an important showdown. Phil Savage, executive director of the Reese's Senior Bowl, thinks more than a few NFL scouts will be watching this key matchup:

"These two below-the-radar prospects will be on display. Travis has 60 total tackles, three pass breakups and two interceptions this season, while Huskers' tight end Cethan Carter is just returning from an elbow injury that caused him to miss four games. A very athletic receiver, he has 12 receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown."

Final food for thought

• After defeating LSU, Alabama moved up to No. 1 in Strength of Record. The Tide have played FPI's third-hardest schedule and have an FBS-high five wins in which an average top-25 team would not have been favored. An average top-25 team would have a 0.5 percent chance of starting 9-0 against the Tide's schedule. Only five teams -- 2009 Alabama, 2010 Auburn, 2005 Texas, 2011 LSU and 2015 Alabama -- finished the season with a record more difficult to achieve (in that given season) than Alabama's current record.

• Might we be headed to a rematch of the 2015 national title game? Clemson has an impressive résumé, with an FBS-high three wins against teams currently ranked in the top 10 of FPI. An average top-25 team would have a 1 percent chance of starting 9-0 against Clemson's schedule, which ranks 28th in the FBS.

• One reason Western Michigan is off to a 10-0 start -- and has won 12 straight games dating to last season, its longest win streak since 1923 -- is the play of QB Zach Terrell and WR Corey Davis. The two have connected on 46 touchdown passes in their careers, second for a QB/receiver tandem in FBS history.

• Louisville QB Lamar Jackson leads FBS in total QBR, which is a great measure of the quality of a quarterback's play. But "QB Points Added" measures the total production of a quarterback compared to what an average QB would produce, and Jackson added 12.3 points per game. How good is that? It's the best production over the past decade, superior to that of Heisman Trophy-winning QBs Johnny Manziel (11.8 ppg in 2012) and Marcus Mariota (9.7 in 2014).

• Michigan is the first team in the top four of offensive and defensive efficiency through at least nine games since Florida State in 2013.

ESPN Stats & Info's Sharon Katz contributed to this report.