Predictions That Flopped in 2003

By now I'm sure Thom has noted that PC Magazine named the Foveon X3 5M CMOS Direct Image Sensor its Tech Ex winner for digital input devices in 2003. And the Sigma SD10 digital camera based on the chip got a stellar review just last month.

OK, one small manufacturer and a couple of awards is not necessarily a slam-dunk success, but it's no failure, either. I expect big things from Foveon in 2004.

Missed Milestones

Neither Hogan, nor anyone else I can find for that matter, predicted Kycoera's rapid refresh digital-imaging chip that lets you take 3-megapixel images in continuous-shot mode at 3.5 images per second.

Hogan did have a couple of good insights, like the fact that disposable digital cameras would ship this year. Kodak and Ritz Camera made that a reality.

I had a devil of a time finding anyone who mentioned the reemergence of Voice over IP, the triumph of affordable LCDs over CRTs, the large flat-screen TV/PC hybrid display craze, or phone cameras proliferating to the point that people would be taking digital photos in bad and unexpected places.

Overall, 2003's predictions were another boatload of half-baked prognostications with a few home runs thrown in. It felt a lot like years past.

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