Do Libras Live Longer?

Feb. 21, 2007 — -- Peter Austin wasn't a bit surprised when he found evidence of what appears to be a strong link between specific astrological signs and life-threatening medical problems. Is it possible that our health is really determined by the zodiac, or the sign under which each of us was born?

Well, no, despite the fact that Austin's research seems to prove that a Taurus is more likely to suffer a broken neck, a Pisces more likely to have heart failure, and a Virgo more likely to vomit during pregnancy. I'm a Gemini, so I should be drunk right now, because the study, which encompassed the health records of more than 10 million Canadians, shows that a Gemini is very likely to suffer from alcohol dependency.

That's precisely what Austin expected to find, but he says it's all rubbish.

"Taking this study too seriously can be hazardous to your health," says Austin, a statistician with the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Toronto. Austin and three other scientists weren't trying to demonstrate the power of astrology in their study. They were trying to prove just how easy it is to show something is right, when in fact it's dead wrong.

Especially when the evidence comes from something called data mining, a current rage not only in science but in the business and social worlds as well. High-speed computers have made it possible for researchers to crunch enormous numbers, massaging mountains of data that would have been impossible to analyze just a few years ago.

That's been a good thing in some ways, because it has helped researchers spot trends in everything from politics to the stock market to long range weather patterns. But it's probably also why you get advertisements for stuff you don't want, and why sometimes it rains when it's supposed to be sunny. According to Austin and his colleagues, data mining is fraught with peril.

"Results from data mining should be treated with skepticism," Austin says.

If someone looks for patterns long enough, he says, they're probably going to find them, even if they don't exist.