Climate Change Linked to National Security

June 25, 2008 — -- Global warming is likely to increase illegalimmigration, create humanitarian disasters and destabilizeprecarious governments in political hot spots, all of which couldaffect U.S. national security, according to an assessment by U.S.intelligence agencies.

Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Central and SoutheastAsia are most vulnerable to warming-related drought, flooding,extreme weather and hunger. The intelligence assessment warns ofthe global impact from the spillover: increased migration and"water-related disputes," according to prepared remarks by TomFingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, whowas scheduled to speak before a joint House committee hearing.

"We judge that the most significant impact for the UnitedStates will be indirect and result from climate-driven effects onmany other countries and their potential to seriously affect U.S.national security interests," Fingar stated.

The national intelligence assessment on the national securityimplications of global climate change to 2030 is one of a series ofperiodic intelligence reports that offer the consensus judgment oftop analysts at all 16 U.S. spy agencies on major foreign policy,security and global economic issues. Congress requested the reportlast year.

The assessment deals with the projected effects of climatechange, and not just the negative ones. It predicts modestimprovements in agricultural yields in North America and more waterresources in South America. It predicts that most U.S. allies willhave the means to cope economically. Fingar says, however, thatunspecified "regional partners" could face severe problems.

Fingar states that the quality of the analysis is hampered bythe fact that climate data tend not to focus on specific countriesbut rather on broad global changes.

Africa is among the most vulnerable regions, the report states.An expected increase in droughts there could cut agriculturalyields of rain-dependent crops by up to half in the next 12 years.