Transcript for Nate Silver on 'This Week'
The -- -- all of that White House Turkey pardon. Were chosen through a highly competitive online vote. And once again. Makes over completely nailed it. -- -- -- -- President Obama little -- out there for Nate Silver brand -- DES PN and ABC news also the editor in chief of 538 dot com welcome to ABC great to have your name of course good morning. And he did nail the 2012 elections we want to talk about this year's elections and then how we see things playing -- gonna -- starting with something Jon Karl mentioned. In this first round -- we've seen two big story lines. This fall the government shut down -- Republicans the beginning in the fall pres Obama Democrats getting clobbered. By health care the last several weeks how do you see this playing out as we -- -- terms next year. Well these are maybe the two biggest lives and each side has the thing about the -- -- up problems that place in this whole notion that senator Paul was talking about where. How competent as big government. Is there -- -- here exclusion issues on the other hand. Democrats can say almost running an anti incumbent campaign saying the GOP is so dangerous when they get power we need to dis empower them you know we're seeing that -- ads. Right no you aren't a nicer stories no -- -- used that the Jon Stewart test is that because more Americans are watching. -- shows are watching Leno and Letterman and Jon Stewart and when things come up punch -- there and resonate with people outside the beltway that's when species might resonate forward to next. The key numbers you're also looking as -- nation and abroad that the conversation. Number one congressional approval right now down to 12%. 85 disapprove. But congress and then when you look at the year 2014 elections. Generic -- called Democrats vs Republicans Democrats have about and eight point. Leave but that's doesn't tell them. -- store yet there couple issues with these numbers number one is that this with these numbers right after the shutdown. There's been another -- the NBC poll we've seen Democrats. Retreating from their peak in that poll but also these -- numbers. Among registered voters and not likely voters usually -- a turnout gap that favors -- GOP. In mid term elections -- -- -- to -- the -- congressional districts are configured. Most them are somewhat Republican leaning Democrats are concentrated. In big cities that means Mitt Romney actually won the majority of districts last year so although those numbers look good for Democrats superficially. -- challenge for them to win back the house. -- on that point if you look at where those numbers were -- before the Republican wave in 2010. Democrats had an advantage on the generic ballot in congress even in 1994 would this -- Gingrich. A revolution. And you had a Democrats had that advantage so what wasn't quite as big as it is there wasn't much different. And the great thing about -- which is something -- referred to -- its data driven as opposed to sort of like here's an anecdote while there's a big rally going on in Richmond Virginia it's gonna change the nature of this. The other conflicting data point that I think we have to looking at is the president's approval number because when you look at the president's approval number usually say just -- you're looking at that. Oh it's gonna be bad for the Democrats but then you look at the republicans' approval number it's really bad for the Republicans and so I think. 122014 is not going to be a wave election in my view it's gonna be a brought out battle by battle by battle by battle and redistricting and -- a big battles. Hang up right now 2013. On Tuesday we seen governors races in both Virginia and New Jersey. -- for a -- a surprising Virginia Terry McAuliffe Democrat grew up in New York seems to me. Heading towards -- victory over -- -- -- Tea Party favorite book Barack Obama and Bill Clinton campaigned for him today. In New Jersey. Chris Christie seems to be coasting to reelection and a big blue state despite those revelations can double. It down and he's making no secret. That he's a nice looking at a presidential run. Taking -- spent some time. With Governor -- this week. Yeah he was beginning his big seven day bus tour of New Jersey -- you know to. And on Election Day. Yeah I found him to be an example of the lost. Joy at the lost pleasure of politics he's out there having fun they love him he's gonna win by we don't know 20/20 five whenever. Points he is feeling triumphant that is a rare thing to see in a Republican these days. So is a wonderful to witness and let me tell you something -- -- thinking about -- with regard to New Jersey and Virginia. New Jersey is about to we believe it looks like re elect a -- state figure. Who is pro life and he's about to win by a lot of points it appears from the polls. -- -- an -- down south than Virginia but still called the south. Is a pro life guy who is expected according to the polls. To go down. So he's gonna go down in a -- state and Christie is gonna win. In a deep blue state I'm trying to make my point here is that -- -- pro life politics and social issues can be very interesting. Well. And -- the first well I think that Chris Christie should really enjoy. This moment. When you -- double down. And you see the kinds of stuff that has not come out about him yet. And when you actually talk to people live in New Jersey about property taxes going up. The bond rating going down. Poverty growing I think the -- of Chris Christie. Is not a pop like a big balloon. I think this is his last great moment. I think when you -- when you when you wanna run as a fiscally conservative guy in your property taxes are going up -- got the worst buy rating and state and the fact that well that was nearly. Let's listen practice questions that -- that I've read the what's the book by Chris Christie what is specifically referring -- -- and I saw the stuff on his -- file you know it's stuff they could be uncomfortable it has to be answered but it doesn't seem to be disqualified. -- -- an accident and out there but listen I would not put the stuff that I've seen ever -- ever read the -- but the stuff I've -- you talk about the kind of tip the -- when you can put together a new role of taking -- -- -- full of the greatest -- of this guy yelling -- people screaming people I don't think it's been packaged together yet but more importantly -- -- yeah. Listen if it that's such a great brand and why wasn't the vice president George yeah. M Wednesday morning -- moment that Wednesday and Wednesday morning -- -- you know his death. There will be reflecting -- Virginia and New Jersey what I think. If they -- more than anything else is not some sort of thing it's gonna tell us -- fourteen Virginia and yeah and New Jersey never tell you about what the future is if you look back at the elections what they do say is. The environmental. In this state -- the geography matters involved in environments have helped -- ideology and I think -- -- other candidates matter. So Chris Christie is a conservative on some issues like abortion and other issues that are important to suburban voters New Jersey so found immigration the environment. Gun control he takes a more moderate stance so I think -- it's kind of a fairly simple story where. In a purple state the Tea Party -- it's going to be a disadvantage -- a very mediocre democratic nominee. And her friend and hurricane sandy his campaign isn't really what he did well obviously we're now having in New York marathon today which we didn't have -- because. Her he how we handled circuit -- sandy. Basically determined his election can I tell you he took Christie said I asked him about these issues he said you know what you guys -- -- misunderstand about politics. It's not about ticking off boxes and this issue and that issue. He said at the end it's personal it's a personal visceral judgment about your leaders -- politics is personal. Most say but I it was an interesting Evelyn now is an Iowa only here is he's gonna have to he's gonna have to do that you -- on -- -- veteran. -- -- Virginia for a second because scene if Terry -- does indeed win Republicans will be shut out. Of all the top -- in Virginia President Obama targeted in targeted early. Is this state. Completely transform. Well it's it's astounding you're gonna have the Democrats if it goes the way we think controlling the full senate seats the governor. He lieutenant governor and the attorney general we haven't seen that since Watergate. So they -- you know this can be a moment in time but what a wakeup call for the Republicans they can win anything in Virginia. And that and I think that it is a telling thing about the Tea Party in that you have all this energy that energy that seems to be hurting the Republicans long long term he got into an autopsy -- the autopsy the autopsy police with a with a Republican sit listen we got to do better with women. We've got to do better with with minorities. Could an Alley -- what's -- opposite direction. I think that you again. You have a Chris Christie people excited about I think he's a lot more than what we do that people think and I don't think the Republican pat anybody else is going to be able to winning -- national election to count is good to go to. Telling sign about the -- -- Virginia is a symbolic sign of that -- you'll -- a country which hurts Republicans. -- -- eight or nine states over the last nine years -- have moved from solidly Republican. To lean democratic we've had one state that has moved from lean democratic for Sally democratic West Virginia to the Republican city of 81 way one the other. Demography in this country really is not good time for candidates matter and it didn't Republicans nominated far right candidates lesson for the Tea Party -- union. Listen if they teach according willow tea -- -- big maybe come -- -- -- a lot of people may be crews and for a bruise in here from. Big difference between the Tea Party -- -- -- sixty foreign gold border 76 and Reagan. Sixty -- 76 Goldwater and Reagan both wanted to scenes and control and win over the Republican Party. The Tea Party now shows signs of not wanting to win it but a warning to topple -- over wanting to do away with it. That is something new when our politics it's gonna get -- out over the next. New Year's what you mean Washington's tonight I'm so these races aren't terribly competitive the one contingency in Virginia McAuliffe is. A heavy favorite you do have a libertarian candidate though. -- his -- combined with kitchen alleys would be ahead of the college so if you see a lot of last and defectors people saying. I don't like kitchen Alabama Republican gonna vote not waste my vote and he might have an outside chance -- races there are are kind of victory and a possible. The where they are looking for is New Jersey the gender gap. In the last quinnipiac poll Christie had exactly the same level of support among women. We had among men no gender gap whatsoever is running against a woman he -- anywhere near that close that will be the central argument for -- that he is a Republican can win. I think that affected the -- just gonna win by such a big blow out New York -- you get New York during marriage which is very important why because the -- of income inequality if that if this is lifting. But I think that if the Democrats can nationalize -- you can say in -- -- fourteen. Look the Republicans get power they abuse it and we've got income inequality we -- you something about it it's gonna be it. Big figure -- I'm afraid that taking new mad that I have to tweak their. -- should everyone get ready for its new web -- 538 dot com that's launching the.
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