Bush Approval Rating Eases off the Brink

June 26, 2006 — -- Slightly less negative views on Iraq have eased George W. Bush's job rating off the political brink, while the lack of a better idea of what to do there is helping to complicate the Democrats' opportunities in this fall's midterm election.

Bush is hardly in the clear: Just 38 percent in this ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of his work in office, up from 33 percent last month, a gain chiefly among moderate Republicans who'd been inching away. Sixty percent still disapprove of his performance, including just shy of half, a new high, who disapprove "strongly."

Iraq remains Bush's biggest problem. There's been a slight five-point advance (to an even split) in views that the United States is making progress there, and a five-point gain in approval of how he's handling it. But 58 percent still say the war was not worth fighting, just off its peak, and 64 percent say Bush lacks a clear plan of what to do in Iraq.

However, after a fractured Democratic debate on withdrawal options last week, even more, 71 percent, say the Democrats lack a clear plan as well.

The Democrats maintain a substantial lead in overall voter preferences in November, but their advantages on specific issues have diminished. In trust to handle Iraq, a 14-point Democratic lead in May has slipped to six points now. And their advantage on national security has proved short-lived: A five-point Democratic edge on handling terrorism last month has shifted to a seven-point Republican advantage now. That change has occurred mainly among independents, the quintessential swing voters.

The Democrats also have lost ground in trust to handle immigration, a red-meat issue for core, conservative Republicans, and one on which congressional Republicans rebuked Bush last week by setting aside his two-pronged initiative -- stronger border enforcement coupled with a program leading to residency status for many illegals here now.

Despite that spat, most of Bush's gains in overall job approval have been in his own party: He's improved by 14 points among Republicans in the past month, to 82 percent approval. Seventy-eight percent of moderate Republicans now approve of his performance, up 21 points from a career-low 57 percent in May.