When Will the Fallout Begin in Zimbabwe?

June 28, 2008 — -- What happens now? Who can free the people of Zimbabwe from a dictator who has staged-managed his own re-election — again, and whose government thugs and their supporters, in this campaign alone, murdered at least 90 political opponents, including children, injured 10,000 Zimbabweans and drove another 200,000 from their homes?

The presidential run-off Friday in Zimbabwe, in which President Robert Mugabe was the sole candidate, has been denounced by Western countries after reports of physical force aimed at voters who failed to cast their ballots for Mugabe and after opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai dropped out last Sunday to avoid more violence against his supporters.

"They said they were forced to go and vote, early in the morning," said Nelson Virri, a Zimbabwean refugee, speaking in South Africa. "The soldiers and the police and the youth of ZANU-PF [Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, Mugabe's party] were around the village pushing them to go and vote in the polling stations."

Larry Cox, executive director of Amnesty USA, told ABC News, "I don't know if there is a way to bring [Mugabe] down."

Mugabe came to power 28 years ago as a revolutionary hero for racial equality, but then became a racist. He drove white farmers from their land, isolating himself from Western trade. The economy is so damaged that a loaf of bread cost billions of Zimbabwean dollars and weighs less than the money needed to buy it.

So, what next? One theory is that Mugabe, now that he has bludgeoned his way into staying in power, will try to cut a deal for power sharing to avoid civil war.

This week, Mugabe himself told reporters in Zimbabwe, "In good spirit, we will listen to those proposals, discuss them with [the opposition]. But not because we are being dictated to by the outside world."

But few outsiders are buying Mugabe's vague hint of compromise.

President Bush announced new sanctions, which an aide said could include wider travel restrictions on Mugabe supporters.

But there is a carrot as well as a stick. Bush said the United States is ready to support a legitimate government with development aid, debt relief and normalization with international financial institutions. And The United States will continue to provide food assistance to more than 1 million Zimbabwe people and AIDS treatment to more than 40,000.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said this week, "It's time for the international community to act. ... It's hard to imagine that anybody could fail to act given what we're all watching on the ground in Zimbabwe."