Skip Iowa? Campaigns Weigh Value of Caucus

May 26, 2007 — -- Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., is campaigning in Iowa this Memorial Day weekend, just days after an internal campaign memo suggesting she skip the Iowa caucuses became public.

The campaign immediately dismissed the idea, but Clinton isn't the only candidate wondering how important Iowa will be in the coming election cycle.

One of Clinton's strategists wanted her to bypass the Hawkeye State, which is scheduled to hold the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Jan. 14, 2008, and instead spend time and money in more influential states where she's polling better.

A spokesman told ABC News that Clinton is "110 percent committed to Iowa," and Clinton herself told an Iowa crowd, "I'm going to spend so much time in Iowa, I'll be ready to caucus for myself by the time January rolls around."

"I think the leaked memo inside Clinton's campaign was a stupid move on their part," said David Yepsen, the Des Moines Register's political columnist. "They're in Iowa, they're working hard in Iowa, and for some staffer to be dreaming up scenarios like that ... it was a stupid move."

A stupid move or not, whether to participate in the Iowa caucuses is the kind of strategic question many campaigns are asking behind closed doors.

On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, N.Y., hasn't spent nearly as much time in Iowa as former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. Even though Giuliani is still ahead nationally, Romney currently has the lead in Iowa.

Giuliani also hasn't said whether he'll take part in this summer's Iowa straw poll, a rite of passage in the Iowa caucus competition.

Giuliani's reasoning is likely the same as Clinton's, with his team recognizing that he, too, could do better in states that come shortly after Iowa.

With an accelerated primary calendar, the game is changing. In January, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Florida will vote first. Then, on an increasingly inflated Super Tuesday, 20 or more states will hold primaries, including such populous places as California, New York, New Jersey and Texas.