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Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks alongside National Border Patrol Union members after they endorsed Trump, during a campaign rally at Findlay Toyota Arena, Oct. 13, 2024, in Prescott Valley, Ariz.
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks alongside National Border Patrol Union members after they endorsed Trump, during a campaign rally at Findlay Toyota Arena, Oct. 13, 2024, in Prescott Valley, Ariz.
Nov 20
Caitlin O'hara/AFP via Getty Images

Latest 538 Headlines

November 20

How immigration swung voters of color to Trump

Trump gained among nonwhite voters with conservative views on immigration.
November 20
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks alongside National Border Patrol Union members after they endorsed Trump, during a campaign rally at Findlay Toyota Arena, Oct. 13, 2024, in Prescott Valley, Ariz.
November 19

What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win

His appeals to young men and men of color may have paid off.
November 19
Donald Trump once again saw notably higher support among men than women in 2024.
November 18

Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world

But their losses were smaller than those in many other democracies.
November 18
Democrats were just one of the many incumbent parties around the globe that lost ground in 2024.
November 15

Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025

The 2024 election created a pro-school choice majority in the state House.
November 15
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had a great 2024 election — and he wasn't even on the ballot.
November 14

Why voters chose Trump

Despite his unpopularity, he won on immigration, the economy and leadership.
November 14
As Donald Trump prepares for a second term as president, 538 dug into the polls to see what Americans think about his policy opinions and rhetoric
November 14

What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
November 14
Polls of Latino voters during the 2024 election were a mixed bag of accuracy.  Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
November 14

How the issue of immigration may evolve in a second Trump term

538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
November 14
538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
November 14

Are Latino voters shifting or in a realignment?

Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
November 14
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
November 13

Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.

The small GOP margin will make it hard to govern and keep the House in 2026.
November 13
Republicans are set to control a very narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2024 election.
November 11

How Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump carried

Don't be fooled, though — split-ticket voting is still rare.
November 11
At least three Democratic Senate candidates are poised to win their contests in states that Donald Trump carried in the 2024 presidential race.
November 08

2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump

A modest error in his favor was enough to sweep the swing states.
November 08
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla.
November 06

How Trump won over voters

The 538 team discusses how Donald Trump won the election despite being disliked by a majority of Americans. 
November 06
How Trump won over voters
November 06

What early exit polls tell us about this year’s election

538’s G. Elliot Morris shares data on voter priorities in the exit polls.
November 06
What early exit polls tell us about this year’s election
November 06

Did voter turnout hurt Democrats in the 2024 election?

538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliot Morris discuss how voter turnout was less than 2020 and how that impacted this year’s election.
November 06
Did voter turnout hurt Democrats in the 2024 election?
November 06

Republicans won the Senate

How big will their majority be?
November 06
Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno speaks during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Westlake, Ohio.
November 06

How Donald Trump won the presidency

We'll have to wait for fuller data, but here are 3 possible reasons.
November 06
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida, Nov. 6, 2024.
November 05

What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?

The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
November 05
An Electoral College tie in the 2024 presidential election is unlikely but plausible.
November 05

538's final forecasts for the 2024 election

The presidency and House are toss-ups, and the GOP is likely to win the Senate.
November 05
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
November 04

The biggest takeaway from the latest Iowa poll | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
November 04
538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
November 04

Are more women motivated to vote on abortion? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how the issue of abortion could be driving more women to vote, according to the latest polling data.
November 04
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how the issue of abortion could be driving more women to vote, according to the latest polling data.
November 04

49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election

Across 41 states, voters will decide on abortion, drug legalization and more.
November 04
There are dozens of interesting ballot measures on the ballot on Nov. 5.
November 04

How to tell who's on track to win on election night

538's benchmarks estimate how well candidates need to do in each county.
November 04
538's county-level benchmarks tool estimates what percentage of the vote Democrats or Republicans would need in each county for a statewide contest to be roughly tied
November 01

When will we know 2024 election results?

A complete guide to poll closing times and vote counting in every state.
November 01
When to expect election results in all 50 states.
November 01

The election isn’t a popularity contest

The 538 team discusses why the candidate with the higher favorability rating isn’t running away with the election.
November 01
The 538 team discusses why the candidate with the higher favorability rating isn’t running away with the election.
November 01

Are women of color energized to vote?

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich debate the meaning of the spike in voter registrations after Kamala Harris announced her presidential campaign.
November 01
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich debate the meaning of the spike in voter registrations after Kamala Harris announced her presidential campaign.
November 01

Can the Washington primary predict the general election?

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss what Washington state's primary can tell us about who will win in November.
November 01
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss what Washington state's primary can tell us about who will win in November.
October 31

The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024

Democrats could take control of state governments in Arizona and New Hampshire.
October 31
The 2024 election has a number of highly-contested races for state legislatures around the country.
October 29

How will young men vote in the 2024 election?

538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
October 29
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
October 29

Does only 3% of America care about democracy?

The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
October 29
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
October 29

How to look at early voting data responsibly

With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
October 29
How to look at early voting data responsibly
October 24

The backlash against liberalism on college campuses | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
October 24
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
October 24

Is education the main dividing line in U.S. politics? | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
October 24
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
October 24

Does academia have a liberalism problem? | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
October 24
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
October 22

Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22

The difference between undecided voters and swing voters

The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
October 22
The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
October 22

What percent of voters are truly undecided?

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
October 22
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
October 16

Why your vote matters in 2024

In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.
October 16
October 15

Why voting patterns may shift this election

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
October 15
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.

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