Sep 27
ABC News Photo Illustration by Katrina Stapleton
How outlier polls happen — and what to do with them
Any one poll is subject to error. That's why we have an average.
September 26, 2023The biggest differences between Republican primary voters and the general electorate
We look at some key demographics and beliefs in the Cooperative Election Study.
September 26, 2023Seven Republicans appear to have made the second debate
Once again, Trump won’t participate.
September 25, 2023
Latest 538 Video
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September 26
How outlier polls happen — and what to do with them
Any one poll is subject to error. That's why we have an average.
September 26
September 26
The biggest differences between Republican primary voters and the general electorate
We look at some key demographics and beliefs in the Cooperative Election Study.
September 26
September 25
Why our politics are stuck in 2016
The issues being debated in politics are more about identity than economics.
September 25
September 25
Seven Republicans appear to have made the second debate
Once again, Trump won’t participate.
September 25
September 25
Why our politics are stuck in 2016 | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Galen Druke speaks with American politics professor Lynn Vavreck about how our electoral politics seem frozen in time.
September 25
September 21
Trump is weaker among independents than Republicans in primary polls
That could matter in New Hampshire.
September 21
September 21
We’re hiring a spring intern
Come join 538’s research and copy desks!
September 21
September 20
Would Trump pick a vice president from his primary opponents?
History suggests he won't — and so do their tweets.
September 20
September 20
Democrats have been winning big in special elections
That could bode well for them in the 2024 election.
September 20
September 19
The latest updates on the 2024 Republican presidential primary
We're tracking polls, endorsements and more, all in one place.
September 19
September 19
Workers are striking and Americans are into it
Approval of this summer's union actions is high.
September 19
September 18
Welcome to the new 538 website
New articles will appear on ABC News, but our interactives will stay in place.
September 18
September 14
What Americans think of the Biden impeachment inquiry
Most aren't convinced President Biden is implicated in his son's wrongdoing.
September 14
September 14
The second GOP debate could be smaller, with or without Trump
Six of the eight candidates from the first debate appear set to qualify again.
September 14
September 12
Why 'Bidenomics' isn't working for Biden
The economy is improving, but Americans aren't giving Biden credit for it.
September 12
September 11
Ron DeSantis probably didn't turn Florida red
The state was already changing in big ways before he was elected governor.
September 11
September 07
Aging politicians are only going to get more common
And voters will probably keep electing them.
September 07
September 06
Should we trust polls campaigns leak to the press?
And what can history tell us about Trump's chances in the Republican primary?
September 06