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Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will face off in South Carolina's GOP primary on Feb. 24.
Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will face off in South Carolina's GOP primary on Feb. 24.
Feb 22
ABC News Photo Illustration, AP Photo/David Yeazell, Paul Sancya

Latest 538 Headlines

1 hour ago

Overseas conflicts are sparking strife in US party politics

How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza could affect the 2024 election.
1 hour ago
How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
1 hour ago

Overseas conflicts are sparking strife in US party politics | 538 Politics Podcast

How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
1 hour ago
How the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are causing intraparty conflicts and what it means for the 2024 election.
February 22

South Carolina's conservative electorate gives Trump a big edge

There's no home-court advantage for Haley in the GOP primary.
February 22
Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will face off in South Carolina's GOP primary on Feb. 24.
February 21

Which is the better 2024 predictor: polls or special elections?

Republicans hope the former, Democrats the latter. But it's complicated.
February 21
Both Republicans and Democrats can point to their own wins that could help them in 2024: Republicans can point to national polls that show former President Donald Trump leading over President Joe Biden; Democrats can point to the success the party has had in special elections.
February 20

Swing state Republican parties are in chaos. That could matter in November.

Leadership fights have roiled the GOP in Michigan, Arizona and Georgia.
February 20
Intraparty battles have troubled Republican state party leadership in Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia.
February 19

Trump suffers another legal setback. What risks his other cases pose.

Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 19
Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 19

What comes next in Trump's trials | 538 Politics Podcast

Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 19
Trump's legal jeopardy includes his first criminal case, set to start March 25.
February 16

What the New York 3rd special election means for November

And why it's not a big deal that the polls were a little off.
February 16
Congressman-elect Tom Suozzi speaks to supporters after winning the special election for New York's 3rd congressional district during his election night event in Woodbury, New York, Feb. 13, 2024.
February 15

Even a losing presidential campaign can have benefits

Why the also-rans also ran.
February 15
By January, more candidates had dropped out of the Republican primary race for President than were still running
February 14

Democrats notch a win in the battle for the suburbs

Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 14
Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 14

Democrats notch a win in the battle for the suburbs | 538 Politics Podcast

Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 14
Suozzi beats Pilip in New York's 3rd Congressional District.
February 12

Who will replace George Santos?

Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.
February 12
Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip in polls.
February 12

The political conversation about Biden's Age

And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12
And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12

The political conversation about Biden's Age | 538 Politics Podcast

And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12
And a preview of the special election to replace George Santos.
February 12

How big of a factor will Biden's age be in the 2024 election?

Voters are worried about his mental acuity, but it's unlikely he'll step aside.
February 12
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
February 12

Why the election to replace George Santos is so competitive

New York's 3rd District could flip from red to blue.
February 12
Democratic congressional candidate for New York's 3rd district, Tom Suozzi, speaks to supporters as he campaigns in Bayside, N.Y., Feb. 10, 2024.
February 09

Americans believe in climate change, but do they believe in love?

We rounded up polls on some of the biggest news items of the week.
February 09
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
February 08

The data points that will explain the 2024 election

We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08
We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08

The data points that will explain the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast

We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08
We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08

The U.S. Virgin Islands is this week's most interesting election

Unlike in Nevada, the GOP race is actually competitive between Trump and Haley.
February 08
The same states usually kick off the presidential primary calendar every cycle, but this year, a newcomer – the U.S. Virgin Islands -- is crashing the Republican party.
February 07

In defense of internal polling

Polls from campaigns have value — you just have to tread carefully.
February 07
Can you trust internal polls?
February 05

The Tortured Pundits Department

Is Taylor Swift turning young women into NFL fans and Biden voters?
February 05
Is Taylor Swift turning young women into NFL fans and Biden voters?
February 05

The Tortured Pundits Department | 538 Politics Podcast

Is Taylor Swift turning young women into NFL fans and Biden voters?
February 05
Is Taylor Swift turning young women into NFL fans and Biden voters?
February 05

Why Nevada might not matter in the GOP presidential race

Trump and Haley won't square off in the state's primary or caucuses.
February 05
Nevada's split nominating contests diminish its importance in the 2024 GOP presidential primary.
February 05

You can probably guess why Trump is dead set against the border bill

Its passage could give Biden's approval ratings on immigration a boost.
February 05
President Joe Biden speaks with members of the US Border Patrol as they walk along the US-Mexico border fence in El Paso, Texas,  Jan. 8, 2023.
February 02

Which Senate candidates are winning the money race?

Reading the tea leaves in the latest campaign fundraising reports.
February 02
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
February 01

How Americans feel about the economy | 538 Politics Podcast

Trends that made Americans pessimistic are fading. Will their views change too?
February 01
Trends that made Americans pessimistic are fading. Will their views change too?
January 29

Will politics or policy win out at the border? | 538 Politics Podcast

A border security agreement is coming together, but former President Donald Trump may get in the way.
January 29
A border security agreement is coming together, but former President Donald Trump may get in the way.
January 24

The GOP primary is basically over | 538 Politics Podcast

The podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 24
The 538 podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 22

Is New Hampshire the end of the GOP primary? | 538 Politics Podcast

Win, lose or draw in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley doesn't look competitive elsewhere.
January 22
Win, lose or draw in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley doesn't look competitive elsewhere.
January 22

What New Hampshire thinks about kicking Trump off the primary ballot

Polls say residents are split, but what's their reasoning?
January 22
What New Hampshire thinks about kicking Trump off the primary ballot
January 18

The view from New Hampshire | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Can anyone beat Trump in the nation's first primary?
January 18
Can anyone beat Trump in the nation's first primary?

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