A modest error in his favor was enough to sweep the swing states.

The 538 team discusses how Donald Trump won the election despite being disliked by a majority of Americans. 

538’s G. Elliot Morris shares data on voter priorities in the exit polls.

538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliot Morris discuss how voter turnout was less than 2020 and how that impacted this year’s election.

How big will their majority be?

We'll have to wait for fuller data, but here are 3 possible reasons.

The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.

The presidency and House are toss-ups, and the GOP is likely to win the Senate.

538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how the issue of abortion could be driving more women to vote, according to the latest polling data.

Across 41 states, voters will decide on abortion, drug legalization and more.

538's benchmarks estimate how well candidates need to do in each county.

A complete guide to poll closing times and vote counting in every state.

The 538 team discusses why the candidate with the higher favorability rating isn’t running away with the election.

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich debate the meaning of the spike in voter registrations after Kamala Harris announced her presidential campaign.

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss what Washington state's primary can tell us about who will win in November.

Democrats could take control of state governments in Arizona and New Hampshire.

The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.

538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.

The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.

With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.

Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

How this year's polling compares with other recent elections.

Most would restore pre-Dobbs protections, but some advocates want to go further.

Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.

Our sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.

538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.

Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.

Here's everything that goes into this year's model.

Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.

The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.

In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.

538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.