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Laphonza Butler speaks during a political event in Washington, June 23, 2023.
Laphonza Butler speaks during a political event in Washington, June 23, 2023.
What could Laphonza Butler's appointment mean for the California Senate race?
Oct 05
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters, FILE

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October 05

What could Laphonza Butler's appointment mean for the California Senate race?

Dianne Feinstein's successor could face obstacles if she joins a crowded field.
October 05
Laphonza Butler speaks during a political event in Washington, June 23, 2023.
October 05

We’re hiring a senior copy editor

This person will also help plan our weekly and long-term coverage.
October 05
538
October 04

The winners and losers of a wild week in Congress

With McCarthy out as speaker, where do House Republicans go from here?
October 04
Welcome to 538’s latest politics chat.
October 03

Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?

An updating tracker of developments in midcycle redistricting.
October 03
Developments in mid-cycle Redistricting
October 02

The Supreme Court starts its new term with dismal approval ratings

Public opinion of the court is strongly polarized along partisan lines.
October 02
The U.S. Supreme Court is seen on June 23, 2023 in Washington, D.C.
September 29

The government might shut down. Do Americans care?

We have fewer polls on the topic than in past shutdowns.
September 29
Polls suggest that plenty of Americans aren’t closely following news of the potential shutdown.
September 28

Who won the second Republican debate?

538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters.
September 28
Republican presidential debate
September 27

Republican debate highlights and analysis: Candidates squabble in Simi Valley

2024 hopefuls argued over education, spending and border security.
September 27
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie, former Governor from South Carolina and UN ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott and former Vice President Mike Pence attend the second Republican presidential primary debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., Sept. 27, 2023.
September 26

How outlier polls happen — and what to do with them

Any one poll is subject to error. That's why we have an average.
September 26
President Joe Biden listens during a meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, Sept. 20, 2023.
September 26

The biggest differences between Republican primary voters and the general electorate

We look at some key demographics and beliefs in the Cooperative Election Study.
September 26
Georgians get ready to vote at early voting locations in Fulton County, Ga., on Oct. 22, 2022, for the November midterm elections.
September 25

Seven Republicans appear to have made the second debate

Once again, Trump won’t participate.
September 25
The stage is pictured ahead of the first Republican Presidential primary debate at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Aug. 23, 2023.
September 25

Why our politics are stuck in 2016

The issues being debated in politics are more about identity than economics.
September 25
September 21

We’re hiring a spring intern

Come join 538’s research and copy desks!
September 21
538
September 21

Trump is weaker among independents than Republicans in primary polls

That could matter in New Hampshire.
September 21
Former President Donald Trump listens at Waco Regional Airport, in Waco, Texas, March 25, 2023.
September 20

Would Trump pick a vice president from his primary opponents?

History suggests he won't — and so do their tweets.
September 20
If former President Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, might he pick one of his primary rivals as his running mate?
September 20

Democrats have been winning big in special elections

That could bode well for them in the 2024 election.
September 20
<span style="color: rgb(29, 28, 29); font-family: Slack-Lato, Slack-Fractions, appleLogo, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);">Democrats have been overperforming in special elections.</span>
September 19

The latest updates on the 2024 Republican presidential primary

We're tracking polls, endorsements and more, all in one place.
September 19
538's primary dashboard is your one-stop shop for data on the 2024 Republican primary.
September 19

Workers are striking and Americans are into it

Approval of this summer's union actions is high.
September 19
September 18

Welcome to the new 538 website

New articles will appear on ABC News, but our interactives will stay in place.
September 18
538
September 14

The second GOP debate could be smaller, with or without Trump

Six of the eight candidates from the first debate appear set to qualify again.
September 14
Republican presidential candidates, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum, are introduced during the first debate of the GOP primary season hosted by FOX News at the Fiserv Forum, Aug. 23, 2023 in Milwaukee.

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