Oct 24
ABC News Photo Illustration, Win McNamee, Andrew Harnik, Getty Images, Adobe Stock
Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
October 22, 2024What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
October 21, 2024Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.
October 18, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
October 24
Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?
Our sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 24
October 24
The backlash against liberalism on college campuses | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
October 24
October 24
Is education the main dividing line in U.S. politics? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
October 24
October 24
Does academia have a liberalism problem? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
October 24
October 23
Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate
Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.
October 23
October 23
How 538's 2024 Senate election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's model.
October 23
October 22
Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
October 22
October 22
Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22
October 22
The difference between undecided voters and swing voters
The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
October 22
October 22
What percent of voters are truly undecided?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
October 22
October 21
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
October 21
October 18
Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.
October 18
October 17
Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 17
October 16
Why your vote matters in 2024
In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.
October 16
October 16
The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.
October 16
October 15
Why voting patterns may shift this election
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
October 15
October 15
Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
October 15
October 15
What the polls say about the 2024 election
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.
October 15
October 15
How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election
Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.
October 15
October 14
How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 14
October 11
3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days
Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.
October 11
October 10
Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris
But it probably doesn't matter.
October 10
October 09
How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024
North Carolina, New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana redrew their districts.
October 09
October 08
The 2024 race to control the House couldn't be tighter
Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House races.
October 08
October 08
How 538's 2024 House election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's model.
October 08
October 07
What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks
They've grown less supportive of Israel's actions and U.S. military aid.
October 07
October 04
Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?
Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November.
October 04
October 03
How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
October 03
October 03
What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.
October 03
October 03
Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
October 03
October 01
How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.
October 01
October 01
How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race
538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.
October 01
October 01
Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.
October 01
September 27
Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
September 27
September 27
The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.
September 27
September 27
What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.
September 27
September 24
Why Democrats are doing better in Senate races than presidentially
The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.
September 24
September 24
Will the Electoral College benefit Republicans again? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about the Electoral College advantage in past elections and how it could play out in 2024.
September 24
September 24
What does early voting data reveal? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.
September 24
September 20
How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
September 20
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