Jun 26
Kevin Dietsch/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Trump's trial showed the legal system works, but his rhetoric has left scars
Legal experts are worried about Trump's ongoing attacks on the courts.
June 24, 202415 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.
June 24, 2024Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate
He’s short on polls and ballot access but is pursuing legal action.
June 20, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
3 hours ago
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
3 hours ago
June 26
Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.
June 26
June 25
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
June 25
June 25
All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
June 25
June 25
Upcoming debate is different than other debates
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
June 25
June 25
How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
June 25
June 24
15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.
June 24
June 24
Trump's trial showed the legal system works, but his rhetoric has left scars
Legal experts are worried about Trump's ongoing attacks on the courts.
June 24
June 20
Do global election trends provide insight into the US election?
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
June 20
June 20
Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world?
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 20
June 20
Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20
June 20
Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate
He’s short on polls and ballot access but is pursuing legal action.
June 20
June 18
It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.
The pandemic upended the factors that used to predict consumer sentiment.
June 18
June 17
7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma
House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good could lose renomination.
June 17
June 14
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.
June 14
June 13
Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
June 13
June 13
Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast
Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
June 13
June 13
How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
June 13
June 12
Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
June 12
June 11
How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast
In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11
June 11
Should voters look at election forecast as codification?
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11
June 11
Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11
June 11
538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 11
June 11
Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast
Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden.
June 11
June 11
How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model.
June 11
June 09
10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada
All of Tuesday's notable races are Republican primary elections.
June 09
June 07
Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls
Two years after Dobbs, Americans still broadly support abortion access.
June 07
June 06
Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind
We're tracking how many women are running (and winning) in primaries this year.
June 06
June 04
Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
June 04
June 04
Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
June 04
June 03
How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
June 03
June 03
How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
June 03
June 03
How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
June 03
May 31
Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict
538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
May 31
May 31
Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.
May 31
May 31
How the jury got to the guilty verdict
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 31
May 29
Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty
Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s options for appeal if he’s found guilty.
May 29
May 29
Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the possible outcomes in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 29
May 29
Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand
Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s criminal trial.
May 29
May 28
What to know about the UK’s July general election
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
May 28
May 28
Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
May 28
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