Feb 09
ABC News Photo Illustration
The U.S. Virgin Islands is this week's most interesting election
Unlike in Nevada, the GOP race is actually competitive between Trump and Haley.
February 08, 2024In defense of internal polling
Polls from campaigns have value — you just have to tread carefully.
February 07, 2024Why Nevada might not matter in the GOP presidential race
Trump and Haley won't square off in the state's primary or caucuses.
February 05, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
February 09
Americans believe in climate change, but do they believe in love?
We rounded up polls on some of the biggest news items of the week.
February 09
February 08
The data points that will explain the 2024 election
We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08
February 08
The data points that will explain the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
We asked a dozen pollsters and experts for their thoughts.
February 08
February 08
The U.S. Virgin Islands is this week's most interesting election
Unlike in Nevada, the GOP race is actually competitive between Trump and Haley.
February 08
February 07
In defense of internal polling
Polls from campaigns have value — you just have to tread carefully.
February 07
February 05
The Tortured Pundits Department
Is Taylor Swift turning young women into NFL fans and Biden voters?
February 05
February 05
The Tortured Pundits Department | 538 Politics Podcast
Is Taylor Swift turning young women into NFL fans and Biden voters?
February 05
February 05
Why Nevada might not matter in the GOP presidential race
Trump and Haley won't square off in the state's primary or caucuses.
February 05
February 05
You can probably guess why Trump is dead set against the border bill
Its passage could give Biden's approval ratings on immigration a boost.
February 05
February 02
Which Senate candidates are winning the money race?
Reading the tea leaves in the latest campaign fundraising reports.
February 02
February 01
Americans think democracy is in peril in the 2024 election
But Democrats and Republicans have different concerns.
February 01
February 01
How Americans feel about the economy
Trends that made Americans pessimistic are fading. Will their views change too?
February 01
February 01
How Americans feel about the economy | 538 Politics Podcast
Trends that made Americans pessimistic are fading. Will their views change too?
February 01
January 31
This could be the shortest presidential primary ever
Trump may wrap up the Republican nomination after only a few states have voted.
January 31
January 30
Immigration is driving support for Trump more than in 2016
Trump won New Hampshire due to increased strength among anti-immigration voters.
January 30
January 29
Will politics or policy win out at the border?
A border security agreement is coming together, but Trump may get in the way.
January 29
January 29
Will politics or policy win out at the border? | 538 Politics Podcast
A border security agreement is coming together, but former President Donald Trump may get in the way.
January 29
January 29
How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023
Senate Democrats focused on nominees, while the House GOP unified against Biden.
January 29
January 25
How 538's pollster ratings work
Our new methodology considers each pollster's accuracy and transparency.
January 25
January 25
What are the best pollsters in America?
538's new pollster ratings quantify each firm's error, bias and transparency.
January 25
January 24
The GOP primary is basically over
The 538 podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 24
January 24
The GOP primary is basically over | 538 Politics Podcast
The podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 24
January 23
If Haley couldn't win New Hampshire, she probably won't win anywhere
Trump is on track to win all 56 primary contests.
January 23
January 22
New Hampshire's GOP electorate won't look like Iowa's
Granite State Republicans are less conservative and less religious.
January 22
January 22
Is New Hampshire the end of the GOP primary? | 538 Politics Podcast
Win, lose or draw in NH, Nikki Haley doesn't look competitive elsewhere.
January 22
January 22
Is New Hampshire the end of the GOP primary? | 538 Politics Podcast
Win, lose or draw in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley doesn't look competitive elsewhere.
January 22
January 22
Sure, Haley could win New Hampshire. But then what?
The Granite State's demographics make it unique from other early-voting states.
January 22
January 22
DeSantis couldn't shake Trump's hold on the GOP
Republican voters liked DeSantis. But they like Trump more.
January 22
January 22
What New Hampshire thinks about kicking Trump off the primary ballot
Polls say residents are split, but what's their reasoning?
January 22
January 22
What New Hampshire thinks about kicking Trump off the primary ballot
Polls say residents are split, but what's their reasoning?
January 22
January 18
The view from New Hampshire | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Can anyone beat Trump in the nation's first primary?
January 18
January 16
Trump wins Iowa. Now what? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa and wonders what happens next.
January 16
January 12
Checking in on the early voting states
Galen Druke speaks to ABC News campaign reporters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
January 12
January 11
The last debate before Iowa | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew reacts to the head-to-head debate between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in Iowa.
January 11
Suggested Interests
