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June 20

Do global election trends provide insight into the US election? 

Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
June 20
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 
June 20

Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world? 

Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 20
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
June 20

Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?

Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
June 20

Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate

He’s short on polls and ballot access but is pursuing legal action.
June 20
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to the media at a Cesar Chavez Day event at Union Station on March 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.
June 18

It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.

The pandemic upended the factors that used to predict consumer sentiment.
June 18
High costs may partially explain Americans' dissatisfaction with the economy.
June 17

7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma

House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good could lose renomination.
June 17
VA-05 candidates Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire
June 14

A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about

Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.
June 14
Welcome to Pollapalooza, 538's roundup of the latest polls.
June 13

Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast

Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
June 13
VIDEO: Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated?
June 13

Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast

Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
June 13
VIDEO: Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI
June 13

How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
June 13
VIDEO: How concerned are Americans with AI?
June 12

Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election

It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
June 12
President Joe Biden stands with his son Hunter Biden, who earlier in the day was found guilty on all three counts in his criminal gun charges trial, after President Biden arrived at the Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Del., June 11, 2024.
June 11

How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast

In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11
In this episode of the 538 podcasts, Elliot explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
June 11

Should voters look at election forecast as codification?

For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
June 11

Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
June 11

538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up

In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 11
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
June 11

Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden.
June 11
Introducing 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast.
June 11

How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works

Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model.
June 11
How 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast works.
June 09

10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada

All of Tuesday's notable races are Republican primary elections.
June 09
Rep. Nancy Mace speaks at her event after winning the South Carolina's GOP primary election, June 14, 2022, in Mt Pleasant, S.C.
June 07

Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls

Two years after Dobbs, Americans still broadly support abortion access.
June 07
Several abortion-rights ballot measures are on the ballot this year.
June 06

Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind

We're tracking how many women are running (and winning) in primaries this year.
June 06
Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George's county executive and Maryland Democratic senate candidate, greets a supporter during a campaign event in Woodlawn, MD, Aug. 28, 2023.
June 04

Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early

Post-verdict polling shows a slight shift toward Biden.
June 04
Former President Donald Trump, flanked by attorneys Todd Blanche and Emil Bove, arrives for his criminal trial at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York, NY on  May 29, 2024.
June 04

Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?

On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
June 04
VIDEO: Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
June 04

Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative

On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
June 04
VIDEO: Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
June 03

How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
June 03
VIDEO: How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion
June 03

How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction

538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
June 03
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
June 03

How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election

Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
June 03
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
June 03

4 primaries to watch in New Jersey, Montana and Iowa

Bob Menendez's trial could cost his son reelection.
June 03
Rep. Rob Menendez, Mayor Ravi Bhalla.
May 31

Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict

538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
May 31
VIDEO: Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict
May 31

Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing

In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.
May 31
VIDEO: Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing
May 31

How the jury got to the guilty verdict

In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 31
VIDEO: How the jury got to the guilty verdict
May 29

Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty

Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s options for appeal if he’s found guilty.
May 29
VIDEO: Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty
May 29

Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the possible outcomes in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
May 29
VIDEO: Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?
May 29

Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand

Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s criminal trial.
May 29
VIDEO: Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand
May 28

What to know about the UK’s July general election

With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
May 28
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
May 28

Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
May 28
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
May 20

Will there be record-breaking turnout for the 2024 election?

The team at 538 predicts how this year’s voter turnout will compare to the unusually high turnout during the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.
May 20
Will there be record-breaking turnout for the 2024 election?
May 20

Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we examine the low voter enthusiasm for the presidential candidates. Are there other factors that could drive Americans to the polls?
May 20
VIDEO: Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?
May 20

Which candidate benefits more from early debates?

The 538 crew discusses the presidential debates and which candidate benefits more from their earlier-than-usual schedule.
May 20
VIDEO: Which candidate benefits more from early debates?
May 16

What potential threats are experts and voters concerned about?

"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen Helmke.
May 16
"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen Helmke.

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