3 hours ago
ABC News Photo Illustration, Getty - FrankRamspott
Who's the front-runner to be Trump's VP pick?
It's another 538 draft!
November 15, 2023Why Tim Scott's presidential campaign failed
A strong candidate on paper didn't capture voters' hearts in practice.
November 14, 2023Where do Americans stand on gun control?
Most Americans want stricter gun laws but don't think they'll get them.
November 13, 2023
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
3 hours ago
What the 2023 elections can — and can't — tell us about 2024
Beware of using this November's elections as a crystal ball.
3 hours ago
November 15
Who's the front-runner to be Trump's VP pick?
It's another 538 draft!
November 15
November 14
Why Tim Scott's presidential campaign failed
A strong candidate on paper didn't capture voters' hearts in practice.
November 14
November 13
If the 2024 election were held today, would Trump win?
The crew looks at what all the data says one year out from the 2024 elections.
November 13
November 13
Where do Americans stand on gun control?
Most Americans want stricter gun laws but don't think they'll get them.
November 13
November 10
Joe Manchin was a unicorn. Now he's retiring.
Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024.
November 10
November 09
Who won the third Republican debate?
538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters.
November 09
November 09
Haley takes on Ramaswamy and DeSantis in third GOP debate
The crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast.
November 09
November 08
Who will win the third Republican debate?
538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters.
November 08
November 08
The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew unpacks the results from election night 2023 and looks ahead to 2024.
November 08
November 06
Will Kentucky and Mississippi elect Democrats?| FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew previews Election Day 2023.
November 06
November 06
The biggest races to watch on Election Day 2023
Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and dozens of other states are heading to the polls.
November 06
November 06
Where does the 2024 election stand one year out?
We modeled six scenarios for the presidential race.
November 06
November 06
How Trumpism took over the Michigan GOP — and tore a small community apart
The first installment in ABC News' Real Voices, Real Choices series.
November 06
November 03
The third Republican debate stage will be less crowded
Four candidates appear to have qualified, while Tim Scott’s status is uncertain.
November 03
November 03
How our polling averages work
An explanation of the methodology for 538's current polling averages.
November 03
November 03
2023 elections to watch: Mississippi governor
Democrats could win the governor's office for the first time since 1999.
November 03
November 02
Adam Kinzinger muses: 'I would love to run against Ted Cruz'
The former congressman explains why he's not done with politics just yet.
November 02
November 02
Adam Kinzinger muses: ‘I would love to run against Ted Cruz'
The former congressman and recent Texas transplant explains why he's not done with politics just yet.
November 02
November 02
2023 elections to watch: Kentucky governor
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is popular, but Kentucky is a red state.
November 02
November 01
Abortion rights are on the ballot in Ohio this Election Day
Issue 1 could add reproductive rights to the state constitution.
November 01
November 01
2023 elections to watch: Ohio's abortion vote
A ballot measure could enshrine abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution.
November 01
October 31
The curious case of Dean Phillips's last-minute primary challenge
His run isn’t based on a major policy or ideological disagreement with Biden.
October 31
October 30
Pence is out, Phillips is in | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew discusses former Vice President Mike Pence dropping out of the Republican primary race.
October 30
October 30
Why is Rep. Dean Phillips challenging President Joe Biden?
The crew looks at why Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips entered the Democratic primary race.
October 30
October 30
Why it doesn't matter that Mike Pence dropped out of the GOP primary
His support was low, and his withdrawal likely won't benefit one candidate.
October 30
October 27
House Republicans have a new speaker. Who is he?
After weeks of infighting, the GOP settled on conservative Mike Johnson.
October 27
October 26
Virginia's legislative contests may be the most important races in 2023
The GOP could gain full control of state government in the bluish commonwealth.
October 26
October 26
2023 elections to watch: Virginia legislature
Republicans are hoping to win a "trifecta" in Virginia.
October 26
October 25
Who will be the next House speaker?
The 538 podcast crew makes the case for why 12 different Republicans could take the gavel.
October 25
October 23
How misinformation amplifies the Israel-Hamas conflict
Ian Bremmer from the Eurasia Group reveals how misinformation increases tensions in Gaza.
October 23
October 23
Our first-ever House speaker draft | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew looks at who will take control after 20 days of a speaker-less House.
October 23
October 23
Young voters could have a big impact in 2024, study says
Americans under 30 hold more liberal views than the general electorate across a range of policy issues.
October 23
October 19
How House Republicans failed to elect a speaker| FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
After the ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House Republicans have struggled to unite around a new speaker candidate.
October 19
October 18
What the latest fundraising numbers say for Trump and his challengers
Fundraising numbers show former President Donald Trump in the commanding lead in the 2024 GOP primary.
October 18
October 16
How Americans feel about the war in Israel | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew looks at the latest polling on how Americans are reacting to the ongoing war in Gaza.
October 16
October 09
War and a speakerless House | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
The crew discuss how the war in Israel is shaping politics in Washington.
October 09
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