The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.

No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.

Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.

States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.

538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.

Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.

Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.

But it probably doesn't matter.

North Carolina, New York, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana redrew their districts.

Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House races.

Here's everything that goes into this year's model.

They've grown less supportive of Israel's actions and U.S. military aid.

Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November.

Our third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states.

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Americans are split over whether Vance or Walz won.

The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.

538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.

The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.

Historically, they haven't really moved the polls.

The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.

The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.

The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about the Electoral College advantage in past elections and how it could play out in 2024.

The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.

538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.

538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.

University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.

The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.