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538 has new pollster ratings.
538 has new pollster ratings.
What are the best pollsters in America?
Jan 25
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January 25

How 538's pollster ratings work

Our new methodology considers each pollster's accuracy and transparency.
January 25
538 has new pollster ratings.
January 25

What are the best pollsters in America?

538's new pollster ratings quantify each firm's error, bias and transparency.
January 25
538 has new pollster ratings.
January 24

The GOP primary is basically over

The 538 podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 24
The 538 podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 24

The GOP primary is basically over | 538 Politics Podcast

The podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 24
The 538 podcast crew recaps what happened in New Hampshire.
January 23

If Haley couldn't win New Hampshire, she probably won't win anywhere

Trump is on track to win all 56 primary contests.
January 23
Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump and Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in New Hampshire, Jan. 23, 2024.
January 22

New Hampshire's GOP electorate won't look like Iowa's

Granite State Republicans are less conservative and less religious.
January 22
GOP electorates in Iowa and New Hampshire differ on party identification, ideology, religion and education.
January 22

Is New Hampshire the end of the GOP primary? | 538 Politics Podcast

Win, lose or draw in NH, Nikki Haley doesn't look competitive elsewhere.
January 22
Win, lose or draw in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley doesn't look competitive elsewhere.
January 22

Is New Hampshire the end of the GOP primary? | 538 Politics Podcast

Win, lose or draw in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley doesn't look competitive elsewhere.
January 22
Win, lose or draw in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley doesn't look competitive elsewhere.
January 22

Sure, Haley could win New Hampshire. But then what?

The Granite State's demographics make it unique from other early-voting states.
January 22
Donald Trump and Nikki Haley face off in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Jan. 23.
January 22

DeSantis couldn't shake Trump's hold on the GOP

Republican voters liked DeSantis. But they like Trump more.
January 22
President Donald Trump introduces Florida Governor Ron DeSantis during a homecoming campaign rally at the BB&T Center, Nov. 26, 2019, in Sunrise, Fla.
January 22

What New Hampshire thinks about kicking Trump off the primary ballot

Polls say residents are split, but what's their reasoning?
January 22
What New Hampshire thinks about kicking Trump off the primary ballot
January 22

What New Hampshire thinks about kicking Trump off the primary ballot

Polls say residents are split, but what's their reasoning?
January 22
What New Hampshire thinks about kicking Trump off the primary ballot
January 19

Immigration, the economy and foreign policy could decide the New Hampshire primary

Here's where Republicans in the state stand on the issues.
January 19
Polls show that New Hampshire Republicans are most worried about immigration, the economy and foreign policy.
January 18

The view from New Hampshire

Can anyone beat Trump in the nation's first primary?
January 18
Can anyone beat Trump in the nation's first primary?
January 18

The view from New Hampshire | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Can anyone beat Trump in the nation's first primary?
January 18
Can anyone beat Trump in the nation's first primary?
January 18

Where do Republican voters stand ahead of the New Hampshire primary?

With Ipsos, we asked likely primary voters about candidates and key issues.
January 18
538 and Ipsos conducted a poll of likely Republican primary voters.
January 17

The party has decided — on Donald Trump

His glut of endorsements suggests he’s very likely to win the GOP nomination.
January 17
538 keeps track of who various Republican politicians have endorsed for president – and which candidates have received the most endorsements as they campaign.
January 16

Who will have the momentum out of Iowa?

History suggests DeSantis could gain ground, but not enough to beat Trump.
January 16
Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at his caucus night event, Jan. 15, 2024 in West Des Moines, Iowa.
January 16

Trump wins Iowa. Now what?

The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa.
January 16
The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa and wonders what happens next.
January 16

Trump wins Iowa. Now what? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa and wonders what happens next.
January 16
The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa and wonders what happens next.
January 16

Ramaswamy's withdrawal could help Trump win New Hampshire

The once-promising wunderkind dropped out after finishing fourth in Iowa.
January 16
Republican presidential candidate and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy speaks to supporters at his Iowa caucus night watch party after suspending his campaign in Des Moines, Iowa, Jan. 15, 2024.
January 14

What each candidate needs to do in the Iowa caucuses

Even Trump will want to exceed expectations.
January 14
Iowa caucuses 2024: Live results and analysis from 538.
January 12

Iowa Republicans want abortion bans, border security and ethanol

Polls say they're very conservative and don't care about Trump's legal troubles.
January 12
Polls show that Iowa Republicans favor abortion bans and conservative immigration policies.
January 12

Can a busy campaign schedule save Trump's GOP primary opponents?

We tracked who's holding the most campaign events in Iowa and New Hampshire.
January 12
For the past several months, researchers at 538 and campaign embeds at ABC News have logged every public campaign event held by a major Republican candidate for president as they crisscross states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
January 12

Checking in on the early voting states

Galen Druke speaks to ABC News campaign reporters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
January 12
Galen Druke speaks to ABC News campaign reporters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
January 11

The last debate before Iowa

The crew reacts to the head-to-head debate between Haley and DeSantis in Iowa.
January 11
The crew reacts to the head-to-head debate between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in Iowa.
January 11

The last debate before Iowa | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew reacts to the head-to-head debate between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in Iowa.
January 11
The crew reacts to the head-to-head debate between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in Iowa.
January 11

Who’s on track for the GOP nomination?

We’ve estimated how many delegates each candidate needs to win in each contest.
January 11
538 is tracking whether each Republican presidential candidate is over or under the number of delegates they need.
January 11

What's each Republican candidate's path to the nomination?

Our new delegate benchmarks reveal each Republican's path to the nomination.
January 11
Different Republican presidential candidates have different paths to the nomination.
January 10

Christie's withdrawal is good news for Haley

The two were in danger of splitting the anti-Trump vote in New Hampshire.
January 10
Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie announces he is dropping out of the race during a town hall campaign event, Jan. 10, 2024, in Windham, N.H.
January 10

What's driving Haley's rise in the GOP primary polls?

Despite her surge in the primary polls, she is still well behind Trump.
January 10
What voters are behind Nikki Haley's rise in the polls?
January 09

January debates offer last shot for Trump's opponents to make their case

DeSantis and Haley will face off in Iowa; Christie set to join them in N.H.
January 09
Republican presidential candidates former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (L) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis participate in the NewsNation Republican Presidential Primary Debate at the University of Alabama Moody Music Hall on Dec. 6, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Ala.
January 08

No sleep till Iowa

The view of the GOP primary from the campaign trail.
January 08
The view of the GOP primary from the campaign trail.
January 08

No sleep till Iowa | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The view of the GOP primary from the campaign trail.
January 08
The view of the GOP primary from the campaign trail.
January 08

What if Biden or Trump suddenly leaves the 2024 race?

How each party could replace its front-runner if he drops out unexpectedly.
January 08
What would happen if a major presidential candidate abruptly withdrew from the race?
January 04

Do the betting markets have 2024 right? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Plus, the wild cards that could throw a wrench in the 2024 election.
January 04
The wild cards that could throw a wrench in the 2024 election.
January 03

Previewing the under-the-radar elections of 2024

The presidential race isn’t the only thing on the ballot.
January 03
The presidential race isn’t the only thing on the ballot.
December 26

538’s top political moments of 2023

A roundup of the most important things that happened this past year.
December 26
A roundup of the most important things that happened this past year.
December 21

Which political stories from 2023 actually mattered?

A look back at the most important -- and weirdest-- political events of 2023.
December 21
A look back at the most important -- and weirdest-- political events of 2023.
December 21

Why voter turnout will probably be high in 2024

The 2023 elections give us a clue.
December 21
Why voter turnout will probably be high in 2024.

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