How changes in party preference and turnout could swing the 2024 presidential election
538's Swing-O-Matic interactive shows what could happen in the 2024 election if Harris or Trump gain ground with different demographic groups — and if turnout shifts among others. To build it, we used data from the U.S. Census Bureau and several pollsters to estimate turnout and vote choice in the 2020 election sorted by five key demographic traits: age, education, sex, income and race. The starting map reflects vote preference and turnout levels from 2020's matchup between Trump and President Joe Biden, adjusted for demographic shifts since then.
Use the buttons below, or scroll down the page, to explore how hypothetical changes in vote choice and turnout among different groups could alter the outcome of the 2024 election. To get you started, we've laid out some potential scenarios of demographic swings and their outcomes, such as a potential Trump victory from non-college-educated voters and nonwhite voters shifting right:
Conversely, a potential Harris win might stem in part from older voters and white voters moving to the left:
So while we're waiting on election results, go ahead and click "Explore on your own" to create your own election scenario and play around with the electorate to your heart's content!