In the 2024 election, the economy and inflation consistently stayed at the top of voters' minds.
Trump has made numerous claims that the country had a stronger economy during his presidency than under the Biden-Harris administration, despite the U.S. economy performing well under both Trump and Biden by most metrics. According to YouGov, which has tracked issue priorities among registered voters over time, the share of registered voters who cite the economy and inflation as their most important issue has increased by 16% since 2021. One group that ranks inflation as their top issue at a higher rate in 2024 is those with just a high school degree, at 36%, compared to 31% of all registered voters. As others have written, that's a group that's been trending toward Trump.
Another important issue for voters is abortion, which will be appearing on ballots across 10 states, including two key swing states: Arizona and Nevada. Abortion increased in importance by 4% since 2021, which can likely be attributed to the Supreme Court's 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that left the legality of abortion to the states. While some think abortion will play a big role in boosting Democrats in the 2024 election, as it seemed to in 2022, that's no sure bet. In terms of gender, abortion is significantly less important amongst men (4%) versus women (11%), which could contribute to the gender gap Meredith mentioned earlier — Harris has made her pro-choice stance a big part of her campaign.
Finally, immigration has shot up in importance this year, as Americans continue to be sharply divided on both the impacts of and policy approaches to the topic. Immigration consistently ranked as the most important issue for under 10% of registered voters throughout Biden's presidency, until 2024, when it jumped to around 15%, in the same YouGov data. Immigration is also on the ballot tonight — in Arizona, voters will decide whether to make crossing the border a state crime, among other provisions.