Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

The presidential race in Nevada is almost dead even in 538's polling average of the state. While the state went heavily for President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and has remained in Democrats' column since then, it's also inched steadily to the right.

Politics in Nevada are dominated by the Las Vegas metropolitan area, where three-fourths of the Silver State's population lives. And the state's Latino population made up 15% of the electorate in 2020, which means that courting Latino voters in the Las Vegas area has been an important strategy for both parties. And, as we see in polls across the country, Republicans seem to be making gains with these voters: In an average of recent polls, Nevada Latino voters said they would vote for Harris over Trump by a 21-point margin, which would represent a slight drop from the 26-point margin Biden had over Trump among the demographic in 2020.

As for what issues may be particularly important here, the state's service- and hospitality-dominated economy was hit heavily by the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns, and the economy remains a top issue for voters there. But a related issue, housing affordability, is also important to voters in the state. While Trump has an advantage in voters' trust on the economy nationwide, Harris may have an advantage on housing in Nevada: According to a September Morning Consult/Bloombergsurvey, voters in the state trust Harris over Trump on the issue of housing by a 10-point margin (49% to 39% of registered voters).

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How Nevada became a swing state in the 2024 presidential election

A look at Nevada’s election history as one of the seven swing states with 6 electoral votes up for grabs.

ABCNews.com

According to data from the University of Florida, more than 80 million people voted early in the 2024 election. That's likely to be about half of the final number of voters.

Pre-Election Day voting has steadily grown in popularity over the last couple decades. Even before the pandemic, around 40% of voters in the 2016 election cast their ballot before Election Day. In 2020, of course, the number of people voting by mail surged, and almost 70% of people voted before Election Day — but this number returned to a more normal 50% in 2022.

What can we learn from these early votes? Not much. Even though early votes, like all ballots, aren't reported until polls are closed, some people try to read into the early voting numbers by looking at the party registration of the people who have turned out so far. But there are a few problems with that: First, people don't necessarily vote for the same party they're registered with. Second, we have no insights into who independents are voting for.

Third, and most importantly, early voters are an incomplete picture of the electorate. Even if early voters are disproportionately Democratic or Republican, we don't know if that's because Democrats or Republicans are unusually fired up to vote or just because they're shifting their voting patterns and deciding to vote early instead of on Election Day. Basically, any lead that one party amasses over the early-voting period can be totally wiped out with a strong Election Day turnout from the other.

Trump has made numerous claims that the country had a stronger economy during his presidency than under the Biden-Harris administration, despite the U.S. economy performing well under both Trump and Biden by most metrics. According to YouGov, which has tracked issue priorities among registered voters over time, the share of registered voters who cite the economy and inflation as their most important issue has increased by 16% since 2021. One group that ranks inflation as their top issue at a higher rate in 2024 is those with just a high school degree, at 36%, compared to 31% of all registered voters. As others have written, that's a group that's been trending toward Trump.

Another important issue for voters is abortion, which will be appearing on ballots across 10 states, including two key swing states: Arizona and Nevada. Abortion increased in importance by 4% since 2021, which can likely be attributed to the Supreme Court's 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that left the legality of abortion to the states. While some think abortion will play a big role in boosting Democrats in the 2024 election, as it seemed to in 2022, that's no sure bet. In terms of gender, abortion is significantly less important amongst men (4%) versus women (11%), which could contribute to the gender gap Meredith mentioned earlier — Harris has made her pro-choice stance a big part of her campaign.

Finally, immigration has shot up in importance this year, as Americans continue to be sharply divided on both the impacts of and policy approaches to the topic. Immigration consistently ranked as the most important issue for under 10% of registered voters throughout Biden's presidency, until 2024, when it jumped to around 15%, in the same YouGov data. Immigration is also on the ballot tonight — in Arizona, voters will decide whether to make crossing the border a state crime, among other provisions.

Over the last six years, a wave of upstart progressives slowly chipped away at the old guard of the Democratic Party, toppling establishment-aligned incumbents and pushing the party as a whole further to the left. These skirmishes have been one of the defining stories of Democratic primaries since 2018. But newly energized challenges from pro-Israel groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee transformed much of the intraparty divide this year, forcing major progressive organizations to rethink their approach to primary season.

Each cycle since 2018, 538 has tracked congressional and gubernatorial candidates backed by progressive groups and leaders. This year marked a dramatic change in the progressive movement's strategy, as the threat of outside spending against progressive incumbents was so strong that it sucked progressive organizations' resources away from backing challengers to incumbents or in open races.

Even more so than in 2022, progressives faced well-funded opposition, particularly from pro-Israel groups like AIPAC and Democratic Majority for Israel — which also spent huge sums to help defeat incumbent "Squad" members Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush, the only two incumbent Democrats in Congress who lost in the 2024 primary cycle. As a result, many of these groups barely endorsed at all in open primaries.

But overall, more than half of the progressive candidates in open races that we tracked this cycle still won their primaries, similar to 2022. Most of their victories came in uncontested or less competitive races. While these races may not have generated as much attention as the blockbuster Squad battles, each one is worth the same prize: a seat in Congress.

Notably, none of those progressive wins came at the expense of candidates backed by the party establishment. Open-seat clashes between progressives and DCCC-backed picks caused lots of drama in 2018 and 2020, but were effectively nonexistent in 2024. The two wings of the party even endorsed the same candidate in three swing districts currently held by Republicans (New Jersey's 7th, New York's 17th and New York's 19th Districts), signaling a unified front when it comes to targeting key pickup opportunities.

Tonight, we'll be watching to see if the progressive candidates who did make it through their primaries can also win in a general election, particularly those that have the backing of the party establishment, too.