Why Nevada is so close in 2024
The presidential race in Nevada is almost dead even in 538's polling average of the state. While the state went heavily for President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and has remained in Democrats' column since then, it's also inched steadily to the right.
Politics in Nevada are dominated by the Las Vegas metropolitan area, where three-fourths of the Silver State's population lives. And the state's Latino population made up 15% of the electorate in 2020, which means that courting Latino voters in the Las Vegas area has been an important strategy for both parties. And, as we see in polls across the country, Republicans seem to be making gains with these voters: In an average of recent polls, Nevada Latino voters said they would vote for Harris over Trump by a 21-point margin, which would represent a slight drop from the 26-point margin Biden had over Trump among the demographic in 2020.
As for what issues may be particularly important here, the state's service- and hospitality-dominated economy was hit heavily by the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns, and the economy remains a top issue for voters there. But a related issue, housing affordability, is also important to voters in the state. While Trump has an advantage in voters' trust on the economy nationwide, Harris may have an advantage on housing in Nevada: According to a September Morning Consult/Bloombergsurvey, voters in the state trust Harris over Trump on the issue of housing by a 10-point margin (49% to 39% of registered voters).
How Nevada became a swing state in the 2024 presidential election