Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

Back in 2020, we anticipated that some states would see especially pronounced "red shifts" and "blue shifts" in their vote tallies as returns came in through the night. Here in 2024, we can expect at least some of the same, although the picture will differ in some respects.

That is, some batches of votes that are more heavily Republican-leaning may be reported at similar times, and then batches of more Democratic-leaning votes. This has to do with the tendency for Republicans to prefer voting in-person on Election Day, while Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail; the timeline for when states and their counties process ballots of different types can lead to major gains for each party as they're added to the statewide tallies.

Now, the good news is that we aren't holding the 2024 election in the midst of a global pandemic, and many states have adjusted their electoral rules in recent years to better handle the greater preference for voters to use mail ballots to cast their votes. For instance, Georgia counties must now report their early in-person and mail-in votes within an hour of polls closing, which may lead a large majority of the state's votes to come in pretty quickly and reduce the chances of dramatic partisan shifts as Election Day votes are tallied. Meanwhile, Michigan is allowing localities to pre-process mail ballots ahead of Election Day such that the state will quickly have counts for those types of votes to add in with Election Day votes, again potentially diminishing red or blue shifts. Plus, evidence from early and mail voting suggests we may not see as large a partisan split in preference for voting method, further reducing potential partisan shifts in the election night count.

That being said, some states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not dramatically altered their rules for processing mail ballots, which could mean we once again see some shifts in those places based on the types of ballots that have been tallied. So we still have to be careful to monitor not just where freshly-tallied votes are coming from, but also how they were cast.

The presidential race in Nevada is almost dead even in 538's polling average of the state. While the state went heavily for President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and has remained in Democrats' column since then, it's also inched steadily to the right.

Politics in Nevada are dominated by the Las Vegas metropolitan area, where three-fourths of the Silver State's population lives. And the state's Latino population made up 15% of the electorate in 2020, which means that courting Latino voters in the Las Vegas area has been an important strategy for both parties. And, as we see in polls across the country, Republicans seem to be making gains with these voters: In an average of recent polls, Nevada Latino voters said they would vote for Harris over Trump by a 21-point margin, which would represent a slight drop from the 26-point margin Biden had over Trump among the demographic in 2020.

As for what issues may be particularly important here, the state's service- and hospitality-dominated economy was hit heavily by the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns, and the economy remains a top issue for voters there. But a related issue, housing affordability, is also important to voters in the state. While Trump has an advantage in voters' trust on the economy nationwide, Harris may have an advantage on housing in Nevada: According to a September Morning Consult/Bloombergsurvey, voters in the state trust Harris over Trump on the issue of housing by a 10-point margin (49% to 39% of registered voters).

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How Nevada became a swing state in the 2024 presidential election

A look at Nevada’s election history as one of the seven swing states with 6 electoral votes up for grabs.

ABCNews.com

According to data from the University of Florida, more than 80 million people voted early in the 2024 election. That's likely to be about half of the final number of voters.

Pre-Election Day voting has steadily grown in popularity over the last couple decades. Even before the pandemic, around 40% of voters in the 2016 election cast their ballot before Election Day. In 2020, of course, the number of people voting by mail surged, and almost 70% of people voted before Election Day — but this number returned to a more normal 50% in 2022.

What can we learn from these early votes? Not much. Even though early votes, like all ballots, aren't reported until polls are closed, some people try to read into the early voting numbers by looking at the party registration of the people who have turned out so far. But there are a few problems with that: First, people don't necessarily vote for the same party they're registered with. Second, we have no insights into who independents are voting for.

Third, and most importantly, early voters are an incomplete picture of the electorate. Even if early voters are disproportionately Democratic or Republican, we don't know if that's because Democrats or Republicans are unusually fired up to vote or just because they're shifting their voting patterns and deciding to vote early instead of on Election Day. Basically, any lead that one party amasses over the early-voting period can be totally wiped out with a strong Election Day turnout from the other.

Trump has made numerous claims that the country had a stronger economy during his presidency than under the Biden-Harris administration, despite the U.S. economy performing well under both Trump and Biden by most metrics. According to YouGov, which has tracked issue priorities among registered voters over time, the share of registered voters who cite the economy and inflation as their most important issue has increased by 16% since 2021. One group that ranks inflation as their top issue at a higher rate in 2024 is those with just a high school degree, at 36%, compared to 31% of all registered voters. As others have written, that's a group that's been trending toward Trump.

Another important issue for voters is abortion, which will be appearing on ballots across 10 states, including two key swing states: Arizona and Nevada. Abortion increased in importance by 4% since 2021, which can likely be attributed to the Supreme Court's 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that left the legality of abortion to the states. While some think abortion will play a big role in boosting Democrats in the 2024 election, as it seemed to in 2022, that's no sure bet. In terms of gender, abortion is significantly less important amongst men (4%) versus women (11%), which could contribute to the gender gap Meredith mentioned earlier — Harris has made her pro-choice stance a big part of her campaign.

Finally, immigration has shot up in importance this year, as Americans continue to be sharply divided on both the impacts of and policy approaches to the topic. Immigration consistently ranked as the most important issue for under 10% of registered voters throughout Biden's presidency, until 2024, when it jumped to around 15%, in the same YouGov data. Immigration is also on the ballot tonight — in Arizona, voters will decide whether to make crossing the border a state crime, among other provisions.