Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

The results from the Southeastern states are looking good for Trump, as Nathaniel mentioned earlier, and that seems like a win for polling this cycle. As we saw in 2022, we've had a cacophony of complaints about the polls this year: that they were too Republican-leaning, or that they underestimated Trump twice before and might do it again. But everything so far tonight seems to validate that the death of the polling industry, once again, may have been greatly exaggerated.

With just about half of the expected vote reporting in Pennsylvania, Trump leads by about 2 points, 50.5% to 48.6%. The good news for Trump is that he's improved on his 2020 position by about 3 points collectively in the 12 counties (of 67) that have reported at least 90% of their expected vote. One notable example is Lackawanna County in the state's northeast, which has reported 95% of its expected vote. Home to Scranton, Biden's birthplace, it's currently going to Harris by 3 points -- but that's a 5-point decline from Biden's 8-point margin edge there in 2020. Harris' hopes probably lie in winning more votes in the Philadelphia blue-collar counties and Philadelphia proper, which have many outstanding votes.

We have our first results from a swing state out west! With 49% of the expected vote reporting in Arizona, it's Harris 50%, Trump 49%. In the Senate race, Democrats are running stronger: Democrat Ruben Gallego has 53% to Republican Kari Lake's 45%. As a reminder, it will take days to count all the ballots in Arizona, although it may be possible to make a projection earlier.

The night is young. With Georgia and North Carolina currently leaning Trump, perhaps the easiest pathway for Harris is the pathway that polls most consistently suggested: winning the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But to get to 270 Electoral College votes, Harris likely needs to pair those three states with one of the two Electoral College votes that come from winning a House district in either Maine's 2nd District or Nebraska's 2nd District. And so far, Harris is up 55% to 44% in Nebraska's 2nd District, which includes Omaha, with 70% of the expected vote counted according to the AP.