Election 2024 updates: With Arizona, Trump sweeps all 7 swing states

Republicans will win the Senate, but by how much remains to be seen. Two seats where the GOP currently leads are Michigan and Wisconsin, but in each Democrats might actually be able to win once all the votes are counted. In Michigan, Slotkin has virtually caught up to Rogers in the vote count, and there are many thousands of votes left in Wayne and Kalamazoo counties, so she's favored to win at this point. In Wisconsin, Hovde has just under a 2-point lead, but Baldwin has a path to erasing it, mainly because there are somewhere in the neighborhood of 120,000 absentee votes left in Milwaukee. If those break roughly 80-20% for Baldwin, she might have a path to overcoming Hovde's roughly 50,000-vote lead. It's going to be close one way or the other.

Republicans have kept their majority in the Wisconsin Assembly, though Democrats managed to break the GOP's supermajority in the state Senate, according to the AP. Democrats had hoped that new, fairer state legislative maps would allow them to retake the lower chamber, but they'll have to wait until 2026 for their next chance. With Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in office for at least another two years, the Badger State will remain under divided government.

Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska is the Democrat who occupies the Trumpiest House district in the country, and as such, she was a top Republican target. So far, Republicans have to be encouraged by the results. With 68% of the expected vote reporting, Republican Nick Begich has 50.02% of first-place vote to Peltola's 45%. Those decimal places are important because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting to decide its elections if no candidate gets a majority. As of right now, if these numbers hold, Begich would win outright.

We were especially watching four gubernatorial contests tonight — when we weren't distracted by the presidential race (which was practically never, but we try you know?) — and the four races split two-two between the Democrats and Republicans. Interestingly, two of those elections look set to be split-ticket outcomes where the presidential race goes opposite direction of the governor's election. In New Hampshire, Harris leads by about 4 points and looks likely to carry the state, but former Sen. Kelly Ayotte is projected to win the governorship to keep it in GOP hands. In North Carolina, Trump carried the state by around 3 points, but Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is up almost 15 points, thanks in part to his Republican opponent's scandals. But Republicans easily held the governorship in Indiana and Democrats comfortably held the governorship in Washington.