Democrats likely to continue losing ground with Latino voters
Polling and anecdotal evidence ahead of this year's election suggests that Democrats' longtime advantage with Latino voters is continuing to shrink, which could create a massive vulnerability for Harris and congressional Democrats in pivotal swing states.
These comments may not turn off conservative Latinos, however. Among other factors, how these voters align politically varies based on where they live, to what extent they prioritize their American identity over their ethnic identity and whether they went to college. And 538's own reporting suggests that Latino voters might be more prone to Republican candidates' messaging on race specifically. For example, many Latinos want stricter immigration reform more in-line with Republican's messaging. Some polling and research also shows that evangelical Latino voters buy into American nationalism and are turned off by identity politics, so they could be more receptive to the idea that the Democratic Party is out of step with their views.
A pronounced rightward shift this year wouldn't only hurt Harris, however. It could also affect Senate races in states with large Latino populations, particularly Arizona and Nevada. In both states, polling suggests that the Democratic candidates enjoy a comfortable lead over Republicans. Still, Harris and Trump are essentially neck-and-neck in both states, and a close margin at the top of the ticket could drag down Democratic Senate candidates. In Texas, too, Republicans have made inroads with Latino voters, especially those who live in the 28 counties bordering the Texas-Mexico border. A shift toward Republicans among those voters could be bad news for Rep. Colin Allred, a Democrat who polls show is within single digits of ousting Senator Ted Cruz.
In any case, both Harris and Trump continued to make a play for Latinos in the lead-up to today. And given the size of this electorate (Latinos make up about 15% of the eligible voting population), how this group votes this year could ultimately decide the eventual outcome of the 2024 race.