Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: May 21, 2024, 5:28 PM EDT

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
May 21, 2024, 8:19 PM EDT

A good sign for November?

It’s only 8 p.m. Eastern, and yet 40 percent of the statewide vote is reporting in Georgia and we have a pretty good feel for where these races are headed. That could be a good sign for November, when Georgia will obviously be one of the most closely watched states in the nation. A clear winner here early-ish on election night would do a lot to avoid a repeat of 2020, when a winner wasn’t projected until the Saturday after the election. (And yes, I’m still traumatized from that.)

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
May 21, 2024, 8:16 PM EDT

McBath projected to win her primary

McBath is projected to win her primary in Georgia's 6th District, according to The Associated Press. She is likely to win reelection in November, in this safely blue (and recently redrawn) seat.

—Monica Potts, 538

Nathaniel Rakich Image
ByNathaniel Rakich
May 21, 2024, 8:02 PM EDT

Fulton’s blueness helps Willis and McAfee

That’s right, Mary. Willis will now move on to a general election against Republican Courtney Kramer that she is heavily favored to win: Biden carried Fulton County 73 percent to 26 percent in 2020. And for McAfee, this was the general election; judicial elections in Georgia are nonpartisan, so all candidates run on the same initial ballot, and there’s only a second round of voting if no one gets a majority.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
May 21, 2024, 7:58 PM EDT

Republican ideological divide plays out in Kentucky state legislature primaries

In the downballot races for the Kentucky legislature, Republicans aligned with the "liberty" wing of the party are taking on more establishment Republicans. Some of these conservatives are recent incumbents who won seats last cycle, while others are newcomers this year, but in general they take a harder line against government spending than what they call "establishment" Republicans.

Many in the liberty wing are endorsed by national PACs like Americans for Prosperity, and PACs backing "school choice" measures that would allow tax dollars to go to private schools. Battling over support for public schools has divided the party in other states, like Texas, and I've written about the universal school voucher movement's gains over the past two years.

Some swing state Republican Parties have also torn themselves apart over even the tiniest ideological differences in swing states around the country. Battles like those in Kentucky will help shape the general election to come, and could determine the direction the party takes in governing should it win big in November.

—Monica Potts, 538