Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Tough night for progressives

Mary, your post about what issues were most important to Oregonians reminded me of a post I read from political scientist John Sides today. He wrote up a study that found that voters didn't really vote for the candidate they perceived as better on the issues they claimed to care about. Basically, voters aren't making a linear, rational calculation of "which candidate is better on which issue?" Instead, a lot of the time, it's just vibes.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

When asked what the most pressing issue in America is, Oregon voters were most likely to select "government leadership" from a list of issues in an April poll from The Bullfinch Group/The Independent Center. Twenty percent of registered voters surveyed selected the issue, more than in any other state included in the Pacific states survey. While we haven't seen a similar outcome in issue polls of other states so far this cycle, it's also fairly uncommon for pollsters to include the issue when this type of question is asked. However, even in other states in the survey with similar partisanship as Oregon, such as California, voters were less focused on governance (just 9 percent of California voters selected the issue as the most pressing) and more focused on the kinds of issues we've seen in other states: immigration and the economy.

The next most chosen issues for Oregon voters were "jobs and the economy" (14 percent), immigration (11 percent) and abortion (8 percent). Seven percent of Oregon voters selected each of "energy and the environment," health care, and national security.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

We've been tracking candidates this cycle who have earned an endorsement from EMILYs List, the prominent political action committee formed to elect pro-choice Democratic women. In today's congressional primaries, EMILYs has endorsed four women — three in Oregon, and one in Georgia. In Georgia, incumbent Rep. Lucy McBath secured their endorsement, and as we mentioned earlier, she's the projected winner of her primary in the 6th District.

In Oregon, two incumbents who are seen as targets for Republicans in November earned EMILYs List endorsements: Rep. Val Hoyle in the 4th District and Rep. Andrea Salinas in the 6th. In addition to these incumbents, EMILYs List endorsed state representative Janelle Bynum in Oregon's 5th District. Bynum is facing attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner; McLeod-Skinner was Democrats' nominee in 2022, when she lost the general election by less than 3 points. Polls are still open in most of Oregon, so we will have to wait and see how this race shakes out.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Looking ahead to Oregon's results, the Portland-based 3rd District hosts one of the big contests of the night. Longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer's retirement has left open this solidly blue seat, and three contenders with progressive brands are competing for the Democratic nomination: state Rep. Maxine Dexter, former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales. At first blush, Jayapal looked to be the front-runner, as she previously represented close to 30 percent of the 3rd District's overall population — far more than Dexter or Morales. She also sports ties to national progressives via her younger sister, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Yet a late campaign cash bonanza may have turned the race on its head, to Dexter's benefit. Pre-primary financial reports through May 1 showed that Dexter had received a massive late boost to bring her campaign total to $919,000, ahead of Jayapal's $773,000 and Morales's $606,000. And from May 2 to May 19, Dexter reported $419,000 in major contributions, far more than her opponents' combined $150,000. Meanwhile, outside groups have spent more than $5 million either supporting Dexter or opposing Jayapal. The 314 Action Fund, a progressive group that supports candidates with science backgrounds, has doled out $2.2 million on ads promoting Dexter and a super PAC with unclear ties, Voters for Responsive Government, has spent $3.2 million on spots attacking Jayapal.

This surge of money has brooked controversy because it appears at least partly connected to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a bipartisan pro-Israel group opposed to progressive critics of Israel's military action in Gaza. While Dexter supports "a negotiated cease-fire" and Morales has called for aid to Gaza, Jayapal has emphasized her consistent and early calls for a cease-fire — so it would follow that groups like AIPAC would prefer that someone else wins. Tellingly, an analysis by Oregon Public Broadcasting found that a substantial portion of Dexter's last-minute donors have a history of giving to AIPAC, and some recently supported notable Republicans such as House Speaker Mike Johnson.

More controversially, The Intercept published reports in early May alleging that AIPAC funneled money to the 314 Action Fund to spend on Dexter's behalf, presumably because more direct intervention by AIPAC could backfire in a progressive-inclined district. The 314 Action Fund denied the allegations, and in the last pre-primary filing from the group on Monday evening, it turned out that a substantial chunk of the organization's recently raised cash came from billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and financier Rob Granieri. Either way, the money could prove to be a massive difference-maker for Dexter's campaign.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538