Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate wins Ohio primary

538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: March 19, 2024, 5:29 PM EDT

November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.

Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Galen Druke Image
ByGalen Druke
Mar 19, 2024, 5:38 PM EDT

How worried should Democrats be about the polls?

The general election campaign has only just begun, and already the presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business. At a recent campaign stop, Biden suggested the polls showing him losing to Trump nationally and in all the major battleground states may not be accurate because it takes “six zillion calls to get one person on their cell phone.”

In the latest installment of the 538 Politics podcast we assess whether Biden has a point and what we should make of general election polls seven and a half months out from voting. We also look back at a viral YouGov poll that showed 20 percent of young Americans believe the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be entirely bogus. Plus, we tackle the main event of the evening — the Republican Senate race in Ohio.

If you want to take a listen while we wait for results to come in, smash the play button below!

—Galen Druke, 538

Tia Yang Image
ByTia Yang
Mar 19, 2024, 5:28 PM EDT

Welcome!

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have both clinched their respective nominations in the presidential race, but primary season is just getting started. The biggest state to watch tonight is in Ohio, where a closely contested GOP primary will decide which Republican faces off against Sen. Sherrod Brown in one of this fall’s biggest Senate races. Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno seems to have an edge in that contest over state Sen. Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Trump-aligned Republicans will be pulling for Moreno today — but so might Democrats, who see Moreno as an easier target to defeat in November.

Which wing of the GOP comes out ahead seems to be the theme of the day throughout the Buckeye State, where we’re also tracking a slew of competitive Republican primaries for U.S. House. Meanwhile, two incumbents in Illinois — Democratic Rep. Danny Davis and Republican Rep. Mike Bost — are looking to stave off tough primary challenges, while California will host a Super Tuesday rematch in a special election to decide who will fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat in the House for the remainder of this year.

As for timing, we should start to see results come in shortly after polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in Ohio and 8 p.m. Eastern in Illinois. As always, 538 analysts will be here bringing you the latest results and analysis throughout the evening. Thanks for joining us!

—Tia Yang, 538

A view shows "Ohio voted" stickers at a polling location as the Democratic and Republican parties hold primary elections in Dayton, Ohio, March 19, 2024.
Megan Jelinger/Reuters

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