Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate wins Ohio primary

The special election to replace former Rep. Bill Johnson in Ohio’s 6th District has been a relatively low-key affair since the seven-term Republican left office in January. State Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus are both running in the regularly scheduled primary and the special election primary for the GOP nomination tonight (so is chiropractor Rick Tsai, who has not raised much money and isn’t seen as a contender); the winner will be a shoo-in for both the June 11 special general election and November general election in this safe red district.

Both candidates are tying themselves closely to Trump, and spent the first month of the race airing positive ads. But Rulli, who is backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, once had a more moderate reputation in the state Senate when he represented a competitive Youngstown-area seat, while Stoltzfus, who has backing from the socially conservative Family Research Council and Gen. Mike Flynn, has consistently been one of the most conservative members of the state House and has pledged to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.

In the closing weeks, the race has turned on LGBTQ issues, with Stoltzfus airing ads accusing Rulli of “sponsoring legislation to allow boys in girls’ bathrooms” — a reference to Rulli’s cosponsorship of an LGBTQ anti-discrimination bill (he was one of the only Republicans to back the bill). Rather than lean into his record, Rulli’s allies at Defending Main Street (a wing of the Republican Main Street Partnership) are working to fashion the candidate, who once described himself as “really pro-gay rights” into a conservative outsider who “will stop the Left’s war on children” with respect to transgender issues.

Stoltzfus ($492,000) and Rulli ($479,000) have spent around the same amount of money on ads through March 18, per AdImpact data, with the pro-Rulli Defending Main Street PAC chipping in another $80,000.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In a February survey from Fallon Research, 47 percent of registered voters in Ohio said they thought the state was off on the wrong track, while 29 percent said it was going in the right direction. This includes pluralities across the political spectrum, with 50 percent of Democrats, 41 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of unaffiliated voters all agreeing the state was on the wrong track, compared with 21 percent of Democrats, 31 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of unaffiliated voters saying it was headed in the right direction.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

In the Ohio House of Representatives, a speaker battle from last year is playing out in the GOP state legislative primaries tonight.

Republicans have veto-proof majorities in both chambers. But when it came time to elect a speaker at the start of the term last year, a moderate Republican, state Rep. Jason Stephens, beat a far-right candidate, Derek Merrin, in a surprising upset thanks to backing from the chamber’s Democrats and 22 Republicans (including Stephens himself). As speaker, Stephens has control over which bills make it to the floor, and Democrats backed him in exchange for support on some of their policy priorities. Meanwhile, the conservative wing of the party censured those 22 members, dubbing them the “Blue 22.”

This year, Merrin himself is term-limited and running in the 9th Congressional District , while the conservatives who backed him for speaker are now backing challengers against half of the pro-Stephens Republicans. National groups have also stepped in to back these challengers, telling the Statehouse News Bureau that they don't want to just elect Republicans; they also want to support a "bold conservative policy agenda." Adding yet another dynamic to the conflict, the current state Senate President Matt Huffman, a conservative who is also term-limited in the Senate, has jumped into the fray and is running unopposed for a state House seat. He has signaled that he wants to be speaker, and donated to the incumbents who backed Merrin in the speaker fight.

The tug-of-war between the far-right and more moderate members of the Republican Party is playing out in states around the country, and, in some cases, among far-right members themselves. Some of the infighting is centered over what happened in 2020 and the false claim that Trump actually won, and could seriously weaken the state parties heading into competitive general election contests in states like Michigan, Arizona and Georgia. In safe-red Ohio, the consequences could be more localized, but the speaker race, for example, will have a major impact on the kinds of bills the state legislature tries to pass next year around divisive issues like abortion or redistricting.

—Monica Potts, 538

The GOP primary for Senate in Ohio is, by leaps and bounds, the most expensive Republican primary race of the cycle — and the second-most expensive Senate primary overall this year (after California’s Senate contest). The three major Republican candidates and their allies have spent a combined $41.2 million through March 19.

The spending picture has largely been dominated by Dolan and Moreno, with LaRose, who is not personally wealthy like the other two, unable to keep pace. Dolan has spent $10.6 million on advertising while Moreno has spent $8.5 million. LaRose has not spent money on broadcast TV, cable, over-the-top/streaming or digital ads, according to data from AdImpact.

When it comes to outside spending, Dolan’s allies at the super PACs Buckeye Leadership Fund (which is largely funded by Dolan’s family) and Defend Ohio Values have spent $7 million and $1.7 million, respectively, bringing the pro-Dolan total to $19.3 million in spending.

Moreno’s supporters at the Club for Growth ($5.9 million), Buckeye Values PAC ($1.3 million) and Win It Back PAC ($823,000) — plus $3.3 million from a Democratic super PAC boosting Moreno because they believe he’ll be an easier general election opponent for Brown — bring the pro-Moreno squad’s total ad outlay to just under $20 million.

LaRose, who raised just $2.2 million through the end of February, is relying on support from his allied super PAC, Leadership for Ohio. That group has spent $5.4 million to boost his bid.

Ultimately, LaRose’s lack of access to significant personal funds hindered his ability to capitalize on the early name ID and polling advantage he had as a two-time statewide elected official. Dolan donated $9 million to his campaign out of his own pocket, and Moreno put $4.2 million of his own money into his campaign.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections