November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Chicagoans are voting today on a ballot measure pushed by progressives that would institute a real estate transfer tax to fund programs addressing homelessness. Today's outcome could tell us something about the strength of Chicago's progressive movement … and its unpopular progressive mayor, who's made it a policy priority.
Brian Rodgers participates in a rally, Feb. 14, 2024, prior to a court hearing on a Chicago ballot measure that would raise a one-time tax on luxury properties to fund services for homeless people in Chicago.
Charles Rex Arbogast/AP
According to publicly available polling, while Chicagoans may have started out feeling good about Mayor Brandon Johnson, their opinion quickly soured. According to Chicago-based Victory Research, Johnson's approval when he first took office in May was at 63 percent. Five months later, in October, Echelon Insights/Illinois Policy Institute found his approval to be just 28 percent, with 50 percent of voters disapproving of his job performance. By January, Tulchin Research/Stand for Children registered an approval rating of just 21 percent, with 70 percent saying his performance was "only fair" or "poor," while Echelon Insights/Illinois Policy Institute marked his approval at 29 percent and disapproval at 57 percent.
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson gives an update on migrant issues at City Hall, Jan. 29, 2024, in Chicago.
Terrence Antonio James/Chicago Tribune via Getty Images
The January Echelon Insights survey also asked respondents if they approved of Johnson's handling of various issues facing the city. The mayor received the lowest ratings on "housing and homelessness" (20 percent approve, 68 percent disapprove), "management of immigrants transported to the city" (23 percent approve, 69 percent disapprove), and "crime and public safety" (24 percent approve, 66 percent disapprove).
As Geoffrey mentioned, Fong is the front-runner in today's California 20th special election, and there's a chance he wins the seat outright today if he gets a majority of the vote. Other than Fong, perhaps no one is rooting for this outcome more than House Speaker Mike Johnson, whose Republican majority is currently paper-thin — and getting thinner.
Right now, the House has 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats, meaning Johnson can afford two Republican defections to pass legislation with a bare majority (three Republican defections would yield a 216-216 tie, which isn't enough to pass a bill). However, GOP Rep. Ken Buck recently announced that he would resign on March 22, which will bring the GOP majority down to 218-213.
Assemblyman Vince Fong speaks at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., June 27, 2023.
Rich Pedroncelli/AP, Files
If Fong wins outright today, he would presumably be sworn in around the same time that Buck leaves, keeping the Republican majority at 219-213. But if he doesn't, the soonest Fong (or another resident of the California 20th) could take office would be late May following a runoff. And in fact, an April 30 special election in New York's 26th District is very likely to send a Democrat to Congress, which would narrow the GOP majority to 218-214 if the California seat is still vacant. That would mean that, for a time, Johnson could only afford one Republican defection before his bills would fail! If you thought it was hard for House Republicans to govern before …
Voters in California’s 20th District may decide McCarthy’s successor today
California held its statewide primary for president and downballot races on March 5, but it still gets to join in on the March 19 fun. There’s a special election in the 20th Congressional District to fill the vacancy left by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned his seat at the end of 2023. The solidly red seat is all but guaranteed to elect a Republican, but the main question is whether the special will produce a winner today or necessitate a runoff.
Representative Kevin McCarthy speaks during a news conference at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., Oct. 9, 2023.
Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images, FILE
That’s because California special elections don’t work exactly like its regular top-two primary elections. Instead, they operate similarly to Louisiana’s jungle primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, run together in a first round — the race happening today — and if one candidate wins a majority, that candidate is elected. But if no candidate wins a majority, a runoff takes place between the top two candidates. Should no one surpass 50 percent today, the two leading contenders will meet on May 21.
In some ways, the March 5 top-two primary served as a dry run for the special because the leading candidates in that race are also on the special election ballot. The favorite is probably Republican state Assemblymember Vince Fong, who led all candidates with 42 percent of the primary vote two weeks ago. Fong is viewed as McCarthy’s hand-picked successor, and he also has Trump’s endorsement. Fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux narrowly grabbed the second November spot with 24 percent in the primary, so he’s probably the second-most likely candidate to win or advance to a runoff. But in the primary, Boudreaux only ran a little ahead of Democrat Marisa Wood, who won 21 percent, so she could finish ahead of Boudreaux in the special. This is especially true considering that Republican turnout may not be as high today as it was on March 5 because the special won’t coincide with a much-watched GOP presidential primary.
California State Assemblyman Vince Fong speaks during a press conference in Santa Ana, Calif., June 16, 2023.
Jeff Gritchen/Orange County Register via Getty Images
Differences between the set of candidates running in the special and those who ran in the regular primary could also cause consequential shifts in vote share. Four minor Republicans not running in the special won about 5 percent in the primary, while a minor Democrat not running in the special won about 3 percent. Should this support line up more behind the leading contenders in each party, Fong would find himself closer to a majority to win outright, while Wood might overtake Boudreaux for the second spot in a potential runoff. Moreover, voters know how the primary result played out, so that could influence them to consolidate behind the leading candidates. Still, six other lesser candidates are on the special election ballot, so even if they don’t win much of the vote, what share they do take could still help influence the special’s outcome.
The special election to replace former Rep. Bill Johnson in Ohio’s 6th District has been a relatively low-key affair since the seven-term Republican left office in January. State Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus are both running in the regularly scheduled primary and the special election primary for the GOP nomination tonight (so is chiropractor Rick Tsai, who has not raised much money and isn’t seen as a contender); the winner will be a shoo-in for both the June 11 special general election and November general election in this safe red district.
Reggie Stoltzfus, Republican candidate for Ohio's 6th district, attends the Columbiana County Lincoln Day Dinner in Salem, Ohio, Mar. 15, 2024.
Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
Both candidates are tying themselves closely to Trump, and spent the first month of the race airing positive ads. But Rulli, who is backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, once had a more moderate reputation in the state Senate when he represented a competitive Youngstown-area seat, while Stoltzfus, who has backing from the socially conservative Family Research Council and Gen. Mike Flynn, has consistently been one of the most conservative members of the state House and has pledged to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.
In the closing weeks, the race has turned on LGBTQ issues, with Stoltzfus airing ads accusing Rulli of “sponsoring legislation to allow boys in girls’ bathrooms” — a reference to Rulli’s cosponsorship of an LGBTQ anti-discrimination bill (he was one of the only Republicans to back the bill). Rather than lean into his record, Rulli’s allies at Defending Main Street (a wing of the Republican Main Street Partnership) are working to fashion the candidate, who once described himself as “really pro-gay rights” into a conservative outsider who “will stop the Left’s war on children” with respect to transgender issues.
Stoltzfus ($492,000) and Rulli ($479,000) have spent around the same amount of money on ads through March 18, per AdImpact data, with the pro-Rulli Defending Main Street PAC chipping in another $80,000.
