Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

If you're a frequent visitor to the 538 primary live blogs, you've heard this from me before, but the best way to increase the share of women in Congress — which is still just 28 percent — is to support them in seats that will be competitive in November or in open seats that are safe for your party. Seems obvious, sure! And yet, both parties have a long history of failing to recruit qualified women to run for these coveted seats — especially the GOP, which runs fewer women and in less winnable places.

But last week in Pennsylvania, Democrats had some success in this regard. Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor, beat out a crowded field in Pennsylvania's 10th District to face Rep. Scott Perry in November, and Ashley Ehasz, an Apache helicopter pilot, was unopposed and will face Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the 1st District. Both of these seats are possible Democratic pickups.

Indiana, however, presents more of a challenge for Democratic women. In 2020, Trump beat President Joe Biden by 16 percentage points in the Hoosier State, and only two of the nine members of its House delegation are Democrats. Both these Democrats are men who are running for reelection, and the other seats (currently held by Republicans) aren't winnable for Democrats in November. So while Democrats are running a lot of women in Indiana this year — in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th districts, and also for Senate — it likely won't make a difference in the end.

The Democratic woman who has the best shot in November (although still not a very good one) is probably gubernatorial candidate Jennifer McCormick, who was elected Indiana's superintendent of public instruction in 2016 … as a Republican. McCormick officially changed her party affiliation to Democratic in 2021.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman was a member of the House Freedom Caucus and helped to oust former Speaker John Boehner during his first stint in the House. Now, he's angling for a comeback in Indiana's 3rd District, from which Banks is retiring. The winner of the GOP primary in this safely red seat is all but guaranteed a ticket to Congress.

Former Allen Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis has outraised Stutzman $1.0 million to $796,000 and she has also benefited from $1.1 million in outside spending from Winning for Women (a group dedicated to electing more female Republicans). Pro-establishment super PAC America Leads Action has also spent $1.8 million against Stutzman. Tea party groups like the Club for Growth and Protect Freedom PAC haven't kept pace, spending a combined $1.2 million for Stutzman or against his opponents.

The biggest fundraiser in the race is actually a third candidate, businessman Tim Smith (who self-funded $1.1 million), but observers believe his chances have been damaged by a scandal he's been tied to. A fourth notable, state Sen. Andy Zay, is also running and has raised $693,000, but at the end of the day, chances are either Stutzman or Davis will be this district's next congressman.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

We won't be tracking the GOP primary for Indiana Senate tonight, and that's because Republicans have effectively cleared the field for Rep. Jim Banks, who is running unopposed for Sen. Mike Braun's seat (which Braun is leaving to run for governor).

Banks is a MAGA stalwart who has the endorsements of former President Donald Trump, the state Republican Party, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He supports a nationwide abortion ban after fetal cardiac activity is detected and sent a memo to his House colleagues in 2021 urging Republicans to "lean into the culture war" in the party's push against critical race theory. He has represented Indiana's 3rd Congressional District since he was first elected in 2016.

By consolidating around Banks early, the Republican Party avoided what could have been a messy primary fight. Former Gov. Mitch Daniels, who'd left politics to head Purdue University, had considered jumping in, saying he would "soften the harshness and personal vitriol that has infected our public square." Trump had called him a "weak RINO," while Mark Lubbers, a Daniels advisor, referred to the former president and his family as the "Trump crime family" in response. Such a primary fight might have thrown the state party into chaos, as seen in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, as Trumpworld continues to wrest control of the party from more establishment Republicans.

Two Democrats are running for the chance to take on Banks, but either would face an uphill battle. Indiana hasn't had a Democratic senator since Braun ousted Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in 2018, and the Republican candidate in 2022, Sen. Todd Young, defeated his Democratic opponent by 21 percentage points.

—Monica Potts, 538

Happy primary day, Hoosiers! Indiana is easily forgotten on the primary calendar, sandwiched as it is between sexier states like Pennsylvania and Maryland (don't look at me like that — have you seen that flag?). But if you care about how well Congress functions, you'll want to pay attention to today's primaries, even if you don't watch "Stranger Things" and "Parks and Rec" on repeat.

As my colleagues recently so beautifully illustrated, there are several parties within the parties in Congress. On the Republican side, there are pragmatists who fall in line with party leadership — and then there are obstructionists who tend to make life harder for them.

This year, there are three open House seats in Indiana that could send either type of representative to Congress. And because these seats are safely Republican, today's contests, not November's, will effectively determine that. Elsewhere in the state, Rep. Victoria Spartz — the Hamlet from Hamilton County — could be the second incumbent representative of the cycle to lose reelection, and GOP primary voters will also choose who will likely become the next chief executive of this state of nearly 7 million people. So yeah, the stakes are high!

We won't have to wait long to find out the winners: Polls close in most of Indiana (the parts in the Eastern time zone) at 6 p.m. Eastern, with the parts of the state in the Central time zone following suit at 7 p.m. Eastern. Follow along with us for the next few hours, won't you?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538