Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

Indiana's primary for governor is the most interesting statewide contest on tap today. And the action is all on the GOP side of the aisle because the solidly red state will likely elect another Republican to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb. The leading candidate looks to be Braun, who won a Senate seat in 2018 but decided to run for governor instead of reelection this cycle. Yet Braun has three notable challengers for the Republican nomination: former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, current Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and businessman Eric Doden. A fourth, former state Attorney General Curtis Hill, has notoriety but for all the wrong reasons: He lost renomination for his old office in 2020 after allegations came out that he had groped a group of women at a party.

For Braun, the good news is that none of his opponents have broken out from the rest of the pack. In early April, a SurveyUSA/Howey Politics/Indiana State Affairs poll found Braun at 44 percent among likely primary voters, with Crouch, Chambers and Doden all at around 10 percent, similar to the findings in older polls of the race. However, Braun's opponents have certainly put together the resources to push for a breakthrough. Overall, Braun had raised $10.2 million as of March 31, but Chambers had raised more ($12.8 million) and Doden about the same ($10 million) — thanks partly to millions from Chambers's own pocket and Doden's family.

Crouch hasn't raised as much (around $7 million post-2020), but she did enter the last weeks of the campaign with $3.1 million in the bank, more than Braun, Chambers or Doden. The field has spent their resources mainly to bring Braun down a peg and promote their candidacies, in particular seizing upon comments Braun made in 2020 following the police murder of George Floyd in which the senator appeared supportive of Black Lives Matter, a conservative apostasy.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

If you're a frequent visitor to the 538 primary live blogs, you've heard this from me before, but the best way to increase the share of women in Congress — which is still just 28 percent — is to support them in seats that will be competitive in November or in open seats that are safe for your party. Seems obvious, sure! And yet, both parties have a long history of failing to recruit qualified women to run for these coveted seats — especially the GOP, which runs fewer women and in less winnable places.

But last week in Pennsylvania, Democrats had some success in this regard. Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor, beat out a crowded field in Pennsylvania's 10th District to face Rep. Scott Perry in November, and Ashley Ehasz, an Apache helicopter pilot, was unopposed and will face Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the 1st District. Both of these seats are possible Democratic pickups.

Indiana, however, presents more of a challenge for Democratic women. In 2020, Trump beat President Joe Biden by 16 percentage points in the Hoosier State, and only two of the nine members of its House delegation are Democrats. Both these Democrats are men who are running for reelection, and the other seats (currently held by Republicans) aren't winnable for Democrats in November. So while Democrats are running a lot of women in Indiana this year — in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th districts, and also for Senate — it likely won't make a difference in the end.

The Democratic woman who has the best shot in November (although still not a very good one) is probably gubernatorial candidate Jennifer McCormick, who was elected Indiana's superintendent of public instruction in 2016 … as a Republican. McCormick officially changed her party affiliation to Democratic in 2021.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman was a member of the House Freedom Caucus and helped to oust former Speaker John Boehner during his first stint in the House. Now, he's angling for a comeback in Indiana's 3rd District, from which Banks is retiring. The winner of the GOP primary in this safely red seat is all but guaranteed a ticket to Congress.

Former Allen Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis has outraised Stutzman $1.0 million to $796,000 and she has also benefited from $1.1 million in outside spending from Winning for Women (a group dedicated to electing more female Republicans). Pro-establishment super PAC America Leads Action has also spent $1.8 million against Stutzman. Tea party groups like the Club for Growth and Protect Freedom PAC haven't kept pace, spending a combined $1.2 million for Stutzman or against his opponents.

The biggest fundraiser in the race is actually a third candidate, businessman Tim Smith (who self-funded $1.1 million), but observers believe his chances have been damaged by a scandal he's been tied to. A fourth notable, state Sen. Andy Zay, is also running and has raised $693,000, but at the end of the day, chances are either Stutzman or Davis will be this district's next congressman.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

We won't be tracking the GOP primary for Indiana Senate tonight, and that's because Republicans have effectively cleared the field for Rep. Jim Banks, who is running unopposed for Sen. Mike Braun's seat (which Braun is leaving to run for governor).

Banks is a MAGA stalwart who has the endorsements of former President Donald Trump, the state Republican Party, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He supports a nationwide abortion ban after fetal cardiac activity is detected and sent a memo to his House colleagues in 2021 urging Republicans to "lean into the culture war" in the party's push against critical race theory. He has represented Indiana's 3rd Congressional District since he was first elected in 2016.

By consolidating around Banks early, the Republican Party avoided what could have been a messy primary fight. Former Gov. Mitch Daniels, who'd left politics to head Purdue University, had considered jumping in, saying he would "soften the harshness and personal vitriol that has infected our public square." Trump had called him a "weak RINO," while Mark Lubbers, a Daniels advisor, referred to the former president and his family as the "Trump crime family" in response. Such a primary fight might have thrown the state party into chaos, as seen in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, as Trumpworld continues to wrest control of the party from more establishment Republicans.

Two Democrats are running for the chance to take on Banks, but either would face an uphill battle. Indiana hasn't had a Democratic senator since Braun ousted Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in 2018, and the Republican candidate in 2022, Sen. Todd Young, defeated his Democratic opponent by 21 percentage points.

—Monica Potts, 538