Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

There are two women among the six Republicans vying to be Indiana's next governor: Crouch and Jamie Reitenour. Reitenour, a political newcomer, is unlikely to garner much support, but theoretically, Crouch should have a pretty good shot — she is the current lieutenant governor of the state and has been endorsed by dozens and dozens of local officials. Unfortunately for her, though, polls show her running well behind Braun, who has been endorsed by Trump and the Club for Growth. The current Republican governor, Holcomb, has also declined to endorse his second in command: "I don't want anyone thinking that just because she and I work so closely together that she's a clone of me."

Notably, Indiana is one of 18 states that has never had a female governor. So Crouch would make history if she wins the primary. But Crouch's underdog status is emblematic of an overall chilly environment for female candidates in Indiana. Just 27 percent of the state's legislature is women, which is below the national average (33 percent), and according to our analysis of data from 1983 to 2019, the state was usually below the national average. Both senators currently representing the state are men. (In fact, Indiana has never elected a woman to the Senate, and of Indiana's nine House members, just two are women.)

Today, Indiana has the chance to either increase or decrease that number. Rep. Erin Houchin in the 9th District, who will face one challenger, will have no problem winning reelection. In addition to having Trump's endorsement, she's supported by VIEW PAC and Maggie's List, groups that are working to elect more GOP women to Congress. However, in the 5th District, Spartz faces a crowded and competitive primary after rescinding her retirement announcement (as Geoffrey will explain in more detail in a few minutes). Trump has stayed out of that race, but VIEW PAC is backing Spartz.

However, as Nathaniel wrote earlier, Republicans could nominate a woman, Davis, in the open 3rd District. Two of the women's groups we are watching — VIEW PAC and Winning for Women — have endorsed her in that race.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Indiana's primary for governor is the most interesting statewide contest on tap today. And the action is all on the GOP side of the aisle because the solidly red state will likely elect another Republican to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb. The leading candidate looks to be Braun, who won a Senate seat in 2018 but decided to run for governor instead of reelection this cycle. Yet Braun has three notable challengers for the Republican nomination: former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, current Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and businessman Eric Doden. A fourth, former state Attorney General Curtis Hill, has notoriety but for all the wrong reasons: He lost renomination for his old office in 2020 after allegations came out that he had groped a group of women at a party.

For Braun, the good news is that none of his opponents have broken out from the rest of the pack. In early April, a SurveyUSA/Howey Politics/Indiana State Affairs poll found Braun at 44 percent among likely primary voters, with Crouch, Chambers and Doden all at around 10 percent, similar to the findings in older polls of the race. However, Braun's opponents have certainly put together the resources to push for a breakthrough. Overall, Braun had raised $10.2 million as of March 31, but Chambers had raised more ($12.8 million) and Doden about the same ($10 million) — thanks partly to millions from Chambers's own pocket and Doden's family.

Crouch hasn't raised as much (around $7 million post-2020), but she did enter the last weeks of the campaign with $3.1 million in the bank, more than Braun, Chambers or Doden. The field has spent their resources mainly to bring Braun down a peg and promote their candidacies, in particular seizing upon comments Braun made in 2020 following the police murder of George Floyd in which the senator appeared supportive of Black Lives Matter, a conservative apostasy.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

If you're a frequent visitor to the 538 primary live blogs, you've heard this from me before, but the best way to increase the share of women in Congress — which is still just 28 percent — is to support them in seats that will be competitive in November or in open seats that are safe for your party. Seems obvious, sure! And yet, both parties have a long history of failing to recruit qualified women to run for these coveted seats — especially the GOP, which runs fewer women and in less winnable places.

But last week in Pennsylvania, Democrats had some success in this regard. Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor, beat out a crowded field in Pennsylvania's 10th District to face Rep. Scott Perry in November, and Ashley Ehasz, an Apache helicopter pilot, was unopposed and will face Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the 1st District. Both of these seats are possible Democratic pickups.

Indiana, however, presents more of a challenge for Democratic women. In 2020, Trump beat President Joe Biden by 16 percentage points in the Hoosier State, and only two of the nine members of its House delegation are Democrats. Both these Democrats are men who are running for reelection, and the other seats (currently held by Republicans) aren't winnable for Democrats in November. So while Democrats are running a lot of women in Indiana this year — in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th districts, and also for Senate — it likely won't make a difference in the end.

The Democratic woman who has the best shot in November (although still not a very good one) is probably gubernatorial candidate Jennifer McCormick, who was elected Indiana's superintendent of public instruction in 2016 … as a Republican. McCormick officially changed her party affiliation to Democratic in 2021.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman was a member of the House Freedom Caucus and helped to oust former Speaker John Boehner during his first stint in the House. Now, he's angling for a comeback in Indiana's 3rd District, from which Banks is retiring. The winner of the GOP primary in this safely red seat is all but guaranteed a ticket to Congress.

Former Allen Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis has outraised Stutzman $1.0 million to $796,000 and she has also benefited from $1.1 million in outside spending from Winning for Women (a group dedicated to electing more female Republicans). Pro-establishment super PAC America Leads Action has also spent $1.8 million against Stutzman. Tea party groups like the Club for Growth and Protect Freedom PAC haven't kept pace, spending a combined $1.2 million for Stutzman or against his opponents.

The biggest fundraiser in the race is actually a third candidate, businessman Tim Smith (who self-funded $1.1 million), but observers believe his chances have been damaged by a scandal he's been tied to. A fourth notable, state Sen. Andy Zay, is also running and has raised $693,000, but at the end of the day, chances are either Stutzman or Davis will be this district's next congressman.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538