Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: May 7, 2024, 5:01 PM EDT

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
ByMary Radcliffe
May 07, 2024, 9:18 PM EDT

Answer: New Mexico’s 2nd District seems a good candidate

Since 2016, New Mexico's 2nd District has changed hands in every election. Republican Steve Pearce held the district in 2003-2009 and 2011-2019, leaving in the 2008 and 2018 cycles to mount (unsuccessful) bids for Senate and governor, respectively. When he left in 2008, Democrat Harry Teague won the seat, only to lose to Pearce when he returned.

According to Daily Kos Elections, Biden won the current configuration of the seat by 6 points in 2020, but in 2022 Democrat Gabe Vasquez beat incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell by less than 1 point. The seat is about 60 percent Hispanic, and as we've seen change in the Hispanic vote in the last few years, I expect it to remain competitive in the coming cycles.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

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ByJacob Rubashkin
May 07, 2024, 9:16 PM EDT

Answer: The Bloody 2nd?

My vote might be for Virginia's 2nd District, which is anchored by Virginia Beach. It's been held by seven different members over the past 20 years: five Republicans and two Democrats. Four of those members lost their reelection bids, and the current officeholder, Rep. Jen Kiggans, faces a challenging reelection this fall.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

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ByNathaniel Rakich
May 07, 2024, 9:14 PM EDT

Question: Here’s a fun one

Here's a good question from our fellow election nerds over at Daily Kos Elections. What say you guys?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

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ByNathaniel Rakich
May 07, 2024, 9:13 PM EDT

The fall matchup is set in Indiana’s 1st District

ABC News reports that Randy Niemeyer is projected to win the GOP primary in Indiana's 1st District. This primary wasn't competitive — the party establishment coalesced around Niemeyer — but the result is notable because the 1st District is Indiana's only congressional seat that's competitive in the general election. Niemeyer will now attempt to unseat Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in November in this seat that voted for Biden by just 8 percentage points in 2020.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538