Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

Running between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, the solidly blue 3rd District sits open following the retirement of Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes. A deluge of money has flooded the contest, mainly in support of former Capitol Hill police officer Harry Dunn and state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, although state Sen. Clarence Lam may have an outside shot at winning.

Dunn became prominent after he testified before Congress in July 2021 about defending the Capitol against insurrectionists on Jan. 6, 2021, later receiving a Presidential Citizens Medal for his service. Notably, Dunn's campaign launch video featured him speaking to camera while walking through a recreation of the events of Jan. 6. His announcement precipitated a money monsoon: Dunn raised more without self-funding in the first quarter of 2024 ($3.8 million) than any other non-incumbent House candidate. Overall, he's raised $4.6 million, which has allowed him to run ads emphasizing his background, an endorsement from Rep. Nancy Pelosi and his goal to protect democracy. Dunn has loose ties to the 3rd District area, however, as he lives in Montgomery County closer to the nation's capital.

By comparison, Elfreth likely started out better-known, as around 60 percent of her Annapolis-based state Senate seat lies in the 3rd District, according to Daily Kos Elections. She's raised about $1.5 million, but Elfreth has also received $4.2 million in outside spending support from United Democracy Project, the bipartisan American Israel Public Affairs Committee's super PAC. Despite AIPAC's pro-Israel policy focus, UDP's ads have emphasized Elfreth's effectiveness as a legislator and work to protect abortion rights. For his part, Lam has raised $736,000, but he sat in third with 8 percent in a late April survey for Dunn's campaign conducted by Upswing Research, while Dunn narrowly led Elfreth 22 percent to 18 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

The retirement of Democratic Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger has left the solidly blue 2nd District open, making the seat's Democratic primary the main event. In that race, Baltimore County Executive John "Johnny O" Olszewski looks favored against state Del. Harry Bhandari, thanks in part to a sizable fundraising edge: Olszewski has brought in $837,000 to Bhandari's $181,000. And Baltimore County as a whole makes up about three-fourths of the seat's population, according to Daily Kos Elections, making Olszewski a familiar face to 2nd District voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 47 people of color are running in these contests — 36 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Almost all of the candidates (44) are running in Maryland, which is one of the most racially and ethnically diverse states in the country.

The marquee Maryland race involving a candidate of color is, of course, the Democratic primary for Senate. If Alsobrooks makes it through both the primary and general election, she will be only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate — although she may be tied for that distinction with Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who is a strong favorite to win in Delaware.

Down the Maryland ballot, a number of candidates are running in the solidly blue 3rd District. In the Democratic primary, former Capitol Hill police officer Harry Dunn, who is Black, has been a fundraising machine but finds himself in a tight contest in against state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, who is white. State Sen. Clarence Lam, who is of East Asian descent, may have an outside shot of catching Dunn and/or Elfreth, while three other legislators of color — Dels. Mark Chang, Terri Hill and Mike Rogers — look unlikely to break through. On the GOP side, retired Air Force officer Berney Flowers, who is Black, has raised a bit more than his primary opponents, although the Republican nominee will have virtually no chance here.

In the blue-leaning 6th District, state Del. Joe Vogel, a Latino, is locked in a close race with former Commerce Department official April McCalin Delaney. A third contender, Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez, who is Black, has raised a sizable amount of campaign cash, too. In the mix in the Republican primary are Air Force veteran Mariela Roca, who is Latina, and former Del. Brenda Thiam, who was the first Black female Republican to ever sit in the Maryland legislature. However, this crowded race could go in a lot of directions.

Elsewhere, in the solidly blue 2nd District, Del. Harry Bhandari, a Nepali immigrant, looks like a significant underdog in the Democratic primary against Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski. The GOP favorite in that seat may be Kim Klacik, a Black woman whose failed 2020 campaign in the solidly Democratic 7th District raised millions after Trump retweeted her campaign ad. She has raised far less this time around, and whomever Republicans nominate will be a huge underdog in November.

In the dark-blue 5th District, health care executive Quincy Bareebe, a Ugandan immigrant, has loaned her campaign more than $200,000 in her long-shot primary challenge to longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer. On the Republican side, Charles County GOP chair Michelle Talkington, who is half Black and half white, has no opposition in her primary. Reps. Glenn Ivey and Kweisi Mfume, both Black incumbents, should easily win renomination in their safe blue seats.

Outside Maryland, state Sen. Tony Vargas, who is Latino, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination in Nebraska's highly competitive 2nd District. And in Nebraska's special election for Senate, community advocate Preston Love Jr., who is Black, is also unopposed but will stand little chance in the general election. In West Virginia's dark-red 2nd District, Walker, who is Black, has raised a lot of money in the Republican primary but, as Nathaniel wrote earlier, looks like an underdog against Moore.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

One inescapable topic in the Democratic primary for Maryland Senate is Trone's largely self-funded campaign. As of April 24, he had pulled in a whopping $54.9 million, with all but $817,000 coming from his own pocket. Between then and May 6, Trone loaned his campaign another $7.7 million, bringing his fundraising total to over $60 million.

With resources like that, you might expect Trone to be significantly outpacing Alsobrooks in the polls, but that's not the case. Trone only leads the 538 polling average by 2 percentage points, and two recent polls showed Trone trailing Alsobrooks for the first time.

To understand why, let's look a little closer at both candidates' fundraising numbers. Despite Trone's overall fundraising lead, Alsobrooks actually outraised Trone $6.6 million to $795,000 in individual and committee contributions, showing a deeper level of support from both regular donors and various PACs. So while much of the narrative about this race is focused on the size of Trone's bank account, let's not forget that money isn't the only thing you need to win an election.

—Amina Brown, 538