Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Alsobrooks beats Trone

It's 7:30 p.m. Eastern, which means our first polls of the night — in West Virginia — are now closed. Expect results shortly!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Since about the mid-1990s, Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans, and the gap gets bigger each cycle. A number of factors explain this disparity between the parties, but one is that the GOP continues to invest less in recruiting and financially supporting its female primary candidates.

There was some speculation that this might be changing. After the 2018 midterm elections, a handful of GOP groups aiming to elect more women cropped up after just four of the 42 new women who joined Congress were Republicans. That imbalance was a wake-up call for New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, who had reportedly recruited more than 100 women to run for Congress that year, but just one of them prevailed in November; most failed to emerge from their primaries. After the 2018 cycle, Stefanik started Elevate PAC as the Republican counterpart to EMILY's List. Stefanik announced she wanted to "play big in primaries," even though Republican leadership said it was "a mistake." Perhaps as a result, in the 2020 cycle, more Republican women ran in and won primaries than ever before.

But this cycle, Elevate PAC hasn't posted any endorsements to its website; Open Secrets shows that it has made contributions to primary candidates — but that list includes men, too, evidence that Stefanik may have other priorities this time around.

But Elevate PAC isn't the only GOP women's group that seems to be pulling back. We've also been tracking endorsements from Winning for Women, Maggie's List and VIEW PAC. Through today's primaries, Winning for Women and Maggie's List have endorsed just two non-incumbents (Wendy Davis, who lost her primary last week in Indiana, and Laurie Buckhout, who won her March primary in North Carolina). VIEW PAC is outpacing these other groups in endorsements, but it has still endorsed only five non-incumbents (two of whom have won their primaries thus far).

Today, there is one Republican woman running in an incumbent-less primary with support from VIEW PAC: Mariela Roca, an Air Force veteran, is running in Maryland's 6th District. However, she faces an uphill battle against two former state delegates, Dan Cox and Neil Parrott.

The primaries aren't over, so we don't yet know if the GOP is slipping when it comes to nominating women. But preliminary evidence from the Center for American Women in Politics suggests a decline. The number of female Republican House candidates is down by 38 percent from 2022 to 2024 in states where filing deadlines have passed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

CORRECTION (May 15, 2024, 3:15 p.m.): A previous version of this post stated that Winning for Women and Maggie's List have only endorsed one non-incumbent through today's primaries. The post has been updated to include Laurie Buckhout of North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, whom both organizations have also endorsed.

According to the Center for American Women in Politics, in states where filing deadlines have passed as of April 26, 36 percent of Democratic candidates for House races and 32 percent for Senate races are women. Today in Maryland, the share is a little lower: 32 percent of Democrats running for House and two out of 10 Senate candidates are women.

That said, women are competitive in a couple of Maryland's most critical primaries — which happen to be pretty crowded. A slew of Democratic departures — in the 2nd, 3rd and 6th Congressional Districts, as well as the Senate — have contributed to a wave of hopeful nominees, including Elfreth in the 3rd District and Alsobrooks for Senate. EMILY's List, the Democratic powerhouse that supports women at the crucial primary stage, has put its muscle behind Alsobrooks with a $2 million ad buy. But, despite typically investing in pro-choice women running in competitive districts, the group hasn't made an endorsement in Elfreth's race.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, there are no Democratic women on the ballot today, while in Nebraska, there is just one running: state Sen. Carol Blood is running unopposed in the 1st District. If the incumbent Republican, Rep. Mike Flood, wins his primary, it will be Blood versus Flood, a most ominous general election match-up. But she will likely lose this, ahem, blood-red district in November.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Biden would've carried Maryland's 6th District by only about 10 percentage points in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections are former state delegates: Neil Parrott, who lost to Trone in 2020 and 2022, and Dan Cox, who lost as the GOP nominee in Maryland's 2022 gubernatorial contest. Parrott has raised $271,000, while Cox has only brought in $123,000. But Cox may be buoyed by his indefatigable support for Trump's unfounded claims that Biden's 2020 victory was illegitimate — a view that around two-thirds of Republicans still subscribe to nationally.

Four other candidates may also have a shot here. Former Naval fighter pilot Tom Royals leads the field in fundraising with $521,000, Air Force veteran Mariela Roca has brought in $274,000 and retired state trooper Chris Hyser has raised $155,000 and has received some outside spending support. Lastly, former state Del. Brenda Thiam is another familiar face for local Republicans, although she's only raised about $50,000.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538