538 tracked over 10 competitive primaries for Senate, House and governor.
Tuesday, May 14 was another busy primary day, as voters in three states decided who would be on their general election ballots this fall. In Maryland, Democrats nominated women in two safely Democratic congressional seats, including Angela Alsobrooks, who is poised to become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. In West Virginia and Nebraska, incumbent Republican representatives fended off far-right challengers.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
The family ties in West Virginia elections tonight don’t stop at the Capitos and Millers. According to the AP, Kris Warner has won the Republican primary for secretary of state there — a job currently held by his brother Mac.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
In Maryland's 6th District, Democrat April McClain Delaney looks to be in a strong position in her primary. With just over a quarter of the expected vote reporting, she leads state Del. Joe Vogel 40 to 26 percent. Her husband, John Delaney, held this seat from 2012 to 2018. On the GOP side, former state Del. Neil Parrott is cruising to a likely third consecutive GOP nomination with 50 percent of the vote, outpacing 2022 gubernatorial nominee Dan Cox, with 55 percent of the expected vote reporting.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Echoing what everyone else has said about Alsobrooks, I also would question the utility of being seen as "electable" in the first place. Plenty have written over the years about how the term can carry with it racial or gender-based undertones — the electability conversation loomed large leading up to the 2020 election, when a number of women were vying to be the Democratic nominee. But nationwide considerations about electability are one thing; I'm doubtful it'll matter at all in deep-blue Maryland.
—Irena Li, 538
I don't think there would be much of a difference between Trone and Alsobrooks when it comes to their chances of winning the 2024 general election against Hogan. Yes, Trone performed somewhat better than Alsobrooks did in some early general election polls against Hogan. However, Alsobrooks wasn't as well-known as Hogan or Trone early on, given that Hogan is a popular former governor and Trone had been running ads since last May. Trone tried to use those polls to make the case that he was more "electable," but it's looking increasingly likely that his argument didn't work.
All in all, my guess is if you simulated this election 10,000 times with Alsobrooks and 10,000 times with Trone, the probability of a Democratic victory would be similarly high in either. That's not to say Hogan can't claim victory in November, but we're talking about deep-blue Maryland — it's going to be very hard for him to actually win.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
