The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.
Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!
Yeah, Jacob, which is kind of remarkable after Kansas Republicans cracked Wyandotte County between two districts in the 2022 redistricting process in order to make Davids more vulnerable. Her district went from 53 to 44 percent Biden to 51 to 47 percent Biden. However, the district is zooming to the left so quickly that it doesn't seem to have mattered. Davids won reelection in 2022 by 12 points.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Nathaniel, candidly, the 3rd District is a clear second- or third-tier target for Republicans, which may explain a bit of why nobody was there to make sure Reddy was dotting his i’s and crossing his t’s. Just take a look at the TV reservations from the major outside groups on both sides of the aisle — the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund for Republicans, and the DCCC and House Majority PAC for Democrats. Democrats have laid down just $800,000 in the Kansas City media market, while Republicans have put down a whopping $0.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Jacob, I'm surprised that Reddy is doing so poorly given his financial advantage, but in-district observers seem to have had a feeling something like this might happen. As Matt Klein wrote for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Reddy ran kind of a lackluster campaign, and Crnkovich even snagged the endorsement of the Kansas City Star.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Well, Monica, if Missouri voters do get to vote directly on a ballot measure protecting abortion access, that may dramatically change the landscape in the state. For example, another state with a primary today, Michigan, voted in 2022 to add the right to access abortion to the state constitution. Perhaps as a result, it's one of the only states we've seen this cycle where abortion access isn't a top priority for Democrats.
In a late July poll from Emerson/The Hill, Democrats listed their top issues as the "economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" (30 percent), "threats to democracy" (20 percent) and "housing affordability" (15 percent). "Abortion access" was chosen by only 8 percent of Michigan Democrats.
Republicans in the state, however, look a lot like Republicans everywhere: Their top issues are the economy (52 percent chose this issue) and immigration (17 percent).
As Geoffrey mentioned earlier, some attacks against Marlinga in Michigan's 10th that Jacob was just discussing have focused on his record on abortion — but with Democrats in the state no longer focused on the issue, we'll have to see how well those will land.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
