Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas primaries 2024: Cori Bush loses

The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: August 6, 2024, 6:01 PM EDT

Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.

The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.

Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Aug 06, 2024, 9:25 PM EDT

Kehoe out to an early lead for Missouri governor

With 13 percent of the expected vote now counted in the Republican primary for Missouri governor, here are the early results: Kehoe 40 percent, Eigel 29 percent, Ashcroft 26 percent. Yes, that’s one-time front-runner Ashcroft, the son of the state's former senator and governor, in last place. This, too, could be an artifact of the fact that Missouri reports absentee votes first; Kehoe is the most moderate candidate in the primary, and moderate candidates tend to do better with Republican absentee voters. But it will be a notable result if it holds.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Aug 06, 2024, 9:22 PM EDT

Checking in on Missouri's 3rd

Only about 10 percent of expected votes have been counted so far in the Republican primary in Missouri's deep-red 3rd Congressional District, according to the AP. But so far, as expected, it looks like it's shaping up to be a two-way race between Schaefer, who was endorsed by the retiring incumbent, and Onder, who was endorsed by Trump. Right now, Schaefer has 48 percent to Onder's 35 percent, but that won't necessarily hold because it includes a large number of absentee votes.

—Monica Potts, 538

Aug 06, 2024, 9:18 PM EDT

Bell leads the absentee vote in Missouri’s 1st

Both counties in Missouri’s 1st District have reported their absentee votes (in Missouri, absentee ballots are counted first, then in-person votes), and Bell has a big lead among them, 64 percent to 33 percent. That’s a strong showing, but absentee votes are just a fraction of the vote in Missouri (18 percent of the final expected total, according to the AP), so don’t count Bush out yet.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Aug 06, 2024, 9:16 PM EDT

Are Republican women's groups in sync with their party?

We've been watching races where women are running this cycle, and according to our analysis through May 21 primaries, Republicans are nominating many fewer women than Democrats, this cycle. One factor likely contributing to that is on display tonight.

In several races, female candidates have backing from women's groups (like VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, or Winning for Women), but they are running up against candidates endorsed by Trump or the NRCC. Tonight in Kansas's 3rd District, Karen Crnkovich has an endorsement from VIEW PAC, but the NRCC and a slew of party leaders endorsed Prasanth Reddy. In Michigan's 8th, VIEW PAC and Winning for Women are supporting Mary Draves, but Paul Junge (who lost in 2022) has Trump's endorsement. And in Washington's 3rd District, VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, and Winning for Women are backing Leslie Lewallen, but Joe Kent has Trump's endorsement (Kent also lost in 2022). Parties have factions, of course, but it is interesting to see several examples of women's groups and other GOP groups in direct opposition, tonight, in some potentially consequential races.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor