The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.
Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!
Nathaniel, if that margin holds in the Missouri gubernatorial race, pollsters will have some 'splaining to do. For most of the year, Ashcroft had a comfortable lead, and Kehoe pulled even only at the beginning of July. Since then, the two have been neck and neck in one of the most-polled primary races of the cycle.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
According to the AP, 13 percent of the estimated vote is counted in the Republican primary for Missouri attorney general, and Bailey leads Scharf 63 percent to 37 percent. This is shaping up to be an easy win for the staunchly conservative incumbent.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
As our friends at Daily Kos Elections pointed out, Bush's margin right now is almost the exact same as it was at this point in her 2020 primary race, which she ended up narrowly winning. A good reminder to be careful about jumping to conclusions based on early returns!
—Cooper Burton, 538
With 13 percent of the expected vote now counted in the Republican primary for Missouri governor, here are the early results: Kehoe 40 percent, Eigel 29 percent, Ashcroft 26 percent. Yes, that’s one-time front-runner Ashcroft, the son of the state's former senator and governor, in last place. This, too, could be an artifact of the fact that Missouri reports absentee votes first; Kehoe is the most moderate candidate in the primary, and moderate candidates tend to do better with Republican absentee voters. But it will be a notable result if it holds.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
