The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.
Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!
With 91 percent of the expected vote counted, Onder has pulled ahead of Schaefer in Missouri's 3rd Congressional District, according to the AP. He has 45 percent compared to Schaefer's 39 percent so far. Onder has the conservative energy and backing in this deep red district, and it looks like election-day voters, whose votes were counted later, came out strongly for him.
—Monica Potts, 538
Checking in on our candidates of color tracker, incumbents like Davids and Tlaib were uncontested and projected to win their nominations by the AP. Reddy is projected to win and face Davids in the fall in Kansas's 3rd, while long-shot candidates like Harper Hill lost his bid for the Democratic nomination for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat and Ghanim failed in his challenge against Stevens in Michigan's 11th. The race against Bush and Bell, who are both Black, in Missouri's 1st is a big race that's too close to call.
—Monica Potts, 538
More votes continue to trickle in from St. Louis County, the more suburban part of Missouri's 1st District, and while Bush is closing her deficit a little bit, it hasn't been enough. With 67 percent of the expected vote now counted districtwide, Bell still leads Bush 54 percent to 43 percent.
The silver lining for Bush: It has been a while since we heard from St. Louis city, and if Bush is going to pull this out, the city is what's going to save her. But she'll need to post some big numbers there to close her current 9,000-vote deficit.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
In 2022, a technical change in how votes are reported meant that Wayne County, Michigan, took days to report its votes. That dynamic may be repeating today: less than 1 percent of the expected vote has been reported in the primary for Michigan's 13th congressional district, in which incumbent Thanedar is facing multiple challengers, more than 2 hours after polls closed.
This issue may also come into play in November, when Democrats in the state will be relying on the solidly Democratic county to shore up their numbers statewide (Wayne is the state's most populous county and home to Detroit, an overwhelmingly blue city). In a critical battleground state, this kind of delay could mean the same sort of result we had in 2020, when a final winner in the presidential race wasn't called until 4 days after the election. Similar delays around the country in 2020 also contributed to conspiracy theories regarding the accuracy of the tally in some counties.
Strap in, folks. It's going to be a long ride.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
