The fields are set for Michigan's Senate and Missouri's governor contests.
Three months out from the big November election, around a third of all states had yet to hold (non-presidential) primaries. On Tuesday, Democrats and Republicans in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas went to the polls to pick which candidates will appear on their ballots in the fall.
The electoral fate of a couple endangered House incumbents hung in the balance on this packed primary day. In Missouri, a progressive "Squad" member was defeated by centrist forces, and in Washington, one of only two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump was challenged by not one but two Trump-endorsed opponents from his right.
Meanwhile, both parties locked in their nominees for Michigan’s critical Senate race, and the outcomes of Republican primary contests are likely to determine Missouri’s next governor and attorney general. In battleground House districts, the fields were set for competitive fall contests, while in safe red and blue districts, ideological lines were drawn as candidates duke it out in primaries tantamount to election.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Check out our full live blog below!
With 92 percent of the expected vote in, the AP projects that Onder will win the race. He's leading Schaefer 45 percent to 39 percent. Onder seemed to be the favorite going in, so this isn't a huge surprise. He's likely to prevail in November.
—Monica Potts, 538
In Michigan's 8th District, 2022 nominee Paul Junge is cruising in the GOP primary against former Dow Chemical executive Mary Draves at 73 percent to 17 percent, with 20 percent of the expected vote counted. I had reported back in March that national GOP strategists had worked to recruit Draves into the race because of concerns that Junge, a multimillionaire and former news anchor who also worked in the Trump administration, would be a weak general election candidate. He has lost two straight congressional bids, in 2020 (against Elissa Slotkin in the 7th District) and 2022 (against Kildee in the 8th).
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
In the Missouri 1st Democratic primary, St. Louis city just reported a large tranche of votes, cutting Bell's lead over Bush to just 51 percent to 46 percent. However, the AP estimates that there are almost no votes left to county in St. Louis city anymore, which means Bush is basically out of room to grow. As a result, the AP has projected Bell the winner of the race.
Bush becomes the fourth incumbent to lose renomination this cycle, after Jerry Carl, Bob Good and fellow Squad member Jamaal Bowman. Like Bowman, Bush found herself on the receiving end of millions of dollars in spending from AIPAC due to her criticism of Israel in its war against Hamas. This cycle has definitely been a setback for progressives, who up until now had slowly but steadily been growing their numbers in the House.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
It's 11 p.m. Eastern, which means polls have officially closed in the Evergreen State. The state, which sends every voter a mail-in ballot, typically releases a first batch of votes shortly after polls close, so we should have initial results shortly.
—Tia Yang, 538
